*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

These are plays from two completely different methods.....these are the plays they both agreed on- or selected.

The methods are so different that several tracks--although both methods usually have a selection in almost every race--some tracks didn't have a single race both agreed on.

That's unusual, so I thought I would post the selections they did agree on. I'll tell more about the methods if these plays are profitable. If not--who cares anyway?

GGX
1ST LA CAMPOMOCHA 5-1
7TH BUTTIE 7/2
GPX
2ND JAIDEN'S BEST 3-1
4TH EL CICLON 8-1
KEEN
3RD RITZY LASS 3-1
9TH HEARTIFIX 7/2
PENN
7TH HONOR ACHIEVED 3-1

[NorCalGreg]

A horse that caught my eye @ GGX today is 5TH RACE TANAGER 12-1 ML. She's certainly not a turf specialist, but trainer Vic Trujillo is pretty crafty and knows what he's doing. He's rested and numbers say she could upset---if she can get by favorite and turf monster SHE'S FLUSH who's been off 4 months.
Co favorite WITH A TWIST has shown no speed lately and may not be much of a factor here.

At anywhere near the ML -- TANAGER looks to be a solid play @ Golden Gate--NCG

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by jay68802

That means you were right, fire sale!

It might not be. A trainer can tell the vet his horse has the sniffles or a slight fever to get a "vet" scratch.

The reason why the horse was a vet scratch should be released at the time of the scratch, but this is horse racing so it's not.

GO BIG RED!!!

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

A horse that caught my eye @ GGX today is 5TH RACE TANAGER 12-1 ML. She's certainly not a turf specialist, but trainer Vic Trujillo is pretty crafty and knows what he's doing. He's rested and numbers say she could upset---if she can get by favorite and turf monster SHE'S FLUSH who's been off 4 months.
Co favorite WITH A TWIST has shown no speed lately and may not be much of a factor here.

At anywhere near the ML -- TANAGER looks to be a solid play @ Golden Gate--NCG

I like how you're thinking, but would be shocked if Tanager doesn't open at 5 or 6-1 or lower in that race. If she drifts up to 8-1, would still be a play. I'm looking at Sharp Cookie @ 10-1 ML. Will play a 2/5 box in exacta.

[oughtoh]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

These are plays from two completely different methods.....these are the plays they both agreed on- or selected.

The methods are so different that several tracks--although both methods usually have a selection in almost every race--some tracks didn't have a single race both agreed on.

That's unusual, so I thought I would post the selections they did agree on. I'll tell more about the methods if these plays are profitable. If not--who cares anyway?

GGX
1ST LA CAMPOMOCHA 5-1
7TH BUTTIE 7/2
GPX
2ND JAIDEN'S BEST 3-1
4TH EL CICLON 8-1
KEEN
3RD RITZY LASS 3-1
9TH HEARTIFIX 7/2
PENN
7TH HONOR ACHIEVED 3-1

Just got on here and saw this and looked them up. Seems like this method works just fine. Penn hasn't wen off, but 3 winners out of 6 picks with a second isn't to bad.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

These are plays from two completely different methods.....these are the plays they both agreed on- or selected.

The methods are so different that several tracks--although both methods usually have a selection in almost every race--some tracks didn't have a single race both agreed on.

That's unusual, so I thought I would post the selections they did agree on. I'll tell more about the methods if these plays are profitable. If not--who cares anyway?

GGX
1ST LA CAMPOMOCHA 5-1
7TH BUTTIE 7/2
GPX
2ND JAIDEN'S BEST 3-1
4TH EL CICLON 8-1
KEEN
3RD RITZY LASS 3-1
9TH HEARTIFIX 7/2
PENN
7TH HONOR ACHIEVED 3-1

Looks like thats going to be profitable.

[oughtoh]

The last one at Penn won. So, $14 in bets returned $34.60. If you were betting $20 win bets you would have had $206 profit. Not a bad day at work.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

The last one at Penn won. So, $14 in bets returned $34.60. If you were betting $20 win bets you would have had $206 profit. Not a bad day at work.

Be nice if it turned out to be the Horse Player's "Holy Grail". Unfortunately, it's probably just more "fools gold"...but that's what keeps me going and enjoying this sport.

I'll talk more about that method--and post tomorrow's selections---a little later on.

Since I've been doing this software gig...it's been really enjoyable---as a side business--okay financially. I don't get much chance to spend on the horses...or even my own programs.

I do have another program coming---sometime this summer--combining several software programs into one---to be called "SPEED DEMONS" There will not be a "Trainer Moves"--sorry.

Was going to call an earlier program Speed Demons...but my wife, being the bible-thumping Catholic she is...decided she didn't want any "DEMON" program in her house.
Why is it always the wife's house? I told her "since it's your house---get on up there and patch the roof"

So once I got done patching the roof....She decided since I was already a Godless Heathen...it would be okay.

Getting to the point--this may be the last program for awhile, if at all. I really just want to get back to playing the ponies...and someone insinuated I was becoming the poor man's RPM. He apologized--but that sort of took the wind out of my sails. I'm not cranking out garbage--and never will.

So anyway....back to the ponies:

I mentioned a while back the CONSENSUS in the EXOTIC program can be good for finding overlays. The horses ranked at the top are usually obvious favorites---but once in a while, a longshot will pop up #1. Usually, an aberration and nothing more--certain tracks like SA good overlays can be found.
5-1 or better can be a nice overlay.

I happened to look the Consensus for Hawthorne today...was stunned to find the 1st race winner--SHE'S PRETTY CUTE $55.80 ...ranked #1. That might be a record. Were 4 playable #1's.....two won:

[oughtoh]

I wish I knew how to put programs together. I think it would be interesting to put them together and then try them out to see if they work or not. Anymore, I love the research more than playing the races. It just isn't the same as it was when I started in 1971. Still love the races, but everything changes and not always for the good. I do like what you are trying to do and wish I had your knowledge on how to do it. Even though I played the races today, I had more fun looking up what your horses did than playing the races.

[NorCalGreg]

I would have been all over that $55 horse at Hawthorne today--that's for sure.

Getting back to the selections today---one method is old school--I always tweak methods that are older--not that they aren't any good, many are...I change some of the rules (days away, w/outs, a couple things I've learned over the years).

I can't say the name of the first program --just because I don't want any emails saying I stole their program they stole from Col Bradley, etc. I don't need the grief, even though the method is changed.
Steve-the-programmer named this method "STRONG"

See, he has no marketing skills whatsoever. I wanted to call it "TOTEBOARD JIHAD"

The other method is called BEST-3 (not to be confused with 1-2-3)
The rules aren't a secret--I just don't have them in front of me. It's called BEST-3 simply because there are only 3 rules.

GGX
1ST LA CAMPOMOCHA 5-1
7TH BUTTIE 7/2 $12.80
GPX
2ND JAIDEN'S BEST 3-1 $8.20
4TH EL CICLON 8-1
KEEN
3RD RITZY LASS 3-1 $6.00
9TH HEARTIFIX 7/2
PENN
7TH HONOR ACHIEVED 3-1 $7.60

[oughtoh]

Whatever it was the picks were impressive.

[NorCalGreg]

Let's try again today---same deal--- only horses the two methods agree upon:

BEL
1ST SPRING ON CURLIN 6-1
2ND SET THE TRAPPE 7/2
3RD MR. DOUGIE FRESH 4-1
5TH MATCH UP 5-1
8TH WEEKEND HIDEAWAY 4-1
EVD
9TH BITTERS N BOURBON 4-1
GGF
3RD RUN SCOUT RUN 3-1
GPX
4TH TIGGER TOWN 7-2
HAW
5TH DR MARK SKI 7/2
KEEN
1ST LEROI'S THRILL 7/2
7TH TISBURY 3-1
LRL
6TH DANCE N DENAE 8-1
8TH MY HIGH ROLLER 5-1
9TH BALMER HON 3-1
PENN
4TH KEYSTONE JONES 3-1
7TH RISQUE REBEL 7/2
PRM
2ND GHOSTLY AGAIN 8-1
4TH CODY'S CUPCAKE 9-2
TAMP
6TH KITTEN'S BEAUTY 5-1
8TH DOG SOLDIER 9-2
WOX
1ST MY ARCH ENEMY 10-1


I did check the ABILITY TOP-4 @BEL --nothing today

E-1 method @ BEL:

7th-THUNDERING SKY
1ST-SPRING ON CURLIN


I'll try to come up with a PLATINUM E-2 play for tomorrow...or if anyone sees an interesting race--go ahead and post it

good luck

-NCG

[Murph]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Just got on here and saw this and looked them up. Seems like this method works just fine. Penn hasn't wen off, but 3 winners out of 6 picks with a second isn't to bad.

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Whatever it was the picks were impressive.

Like you say above 'not too bad' but let's see what he can do for an encore.

As for Hawthorne yesterday it seemed the track was favoring early speed to the half mile on the dirt course rated fast. Turf course rated yielding. This was a bit unexpected by me because I felt the track would be holding moisture and it may well be doing that. All I know is it rained properly since last week and this day comes up speed favoring. Not sure what will happen when it rains again for racing today and tomorrow. I will need to pay closer attention.

HAW race 1 winner is a trainer play that presented here with uneven success. I didn't use him for my DD and that is a shame. Exotic seems to really like runners who rack up speed advantages in today's race match ups when I break them out.

This is pretty cool because my ratings don't do that on their own, I have to figure this one on paper to get my selections similar to the Exotic consensus. The hits just seem to keep on coming. Thanks NCG.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Murph

Like you say above 'not too bad' but let's see what he can do for an encore.

As for Hawthorne yesterday it seemed the track was favoring early speed to the half mile on the dirt course rated fast. Turf course rated yielding. This was a bit unexpected by me because I felt the track would be holding moisture and it may well be doing that. All I know is it rained properly since last week and this day comes up speed favoring. Not sure what will happen when it rains again for racing today and tomorrow. I will need to pay closer attention.

HAW race 1 winner is a trainer play that presented here with uneven success. I didn't use him for my DD and that is a shame. Exotic seems to really like runners who rack up speed advantages in today's race match ups when I break them out.

This is pretty cool because my ratings don't do that on their own, I have to figure this one on paper to get my selections similar to the Exotic consensus. The hits just seem to keep on coming. Thanks NCG.

You're a pretty impressive 'capper, Murph. I know you clash with a couple people----so what? So do I. It didn't take you long to figure out EVERYTHING I do leans towards...if not full-out- based on speed. I'm not interested at all in closers...who are hampered throughout the race, and usually have to get lucky to win.

If someone else handicaps a different way---or doesn't believe speed is king---far out. I want to be a part of the pace--not chase it.

I like your posts Murph

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

It didn't take you long to figure out EVERYTHING I do leans towards...if not full-out- based on speed.

Your nickname should be---->The Dragster....