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Old 04-27-2017, 09:09 AM   #166
classhandicapper
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
It's not as simple as you make it sound. The exotics bettor may get 7/2 with this particular outcome...but the possibility may have existed for him to collect ten TIMES that...with the same wager.

The win-bettor's win expectation is known...but the exotic player's isn't.
Yes, he may get 7/2 on one ticket, 10-1 on another ticket, 100-1 on a another ticket, but he may get 2-1 on another, and 1-1 on another. His volatility will be related to "net" price over a series of bets. If the net is 7/2 long term then his volatility will be approximately equal to a win better that plays some 7/2 shots, some 10-1 shots, some 100-1 shots, some 2-1 shots etc... It's all the same. The volatility is dependent on the odds range.

Setting this aside, I think the whole idea of going for "scores" is idiotic.

Every win and exotic bet has a probability of coming in and a payoff. You should play overlays and not worry about where along the spectrum the payoff might be. I would gladly take 2.70 to place with a 80% chance of cashing for the rest of my life. I couldn't care less about making scores. But if I have 2 live longshots in the same race I'll box those also. I think mostly exotic players horrible misplay them because of all the respected but bad literature out there, but that's another story.
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Old 04-27-2017, 10:06 AM   #167
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Field size continues to shrink. Without full fields, bettors stay away. Small time owners with one or two horses can no longer function cost effectively. We must progress to a new model if American racing is to survive. Solve one problem at a time... Full fields will attract more wagering/ handle...things flow from that crucial nexus...the tracks can no longer rely on the current owner/ trainer relationship model to supply them with full fields....
There must be economies of scale built into the industry...it is too expensive to run under the current model...there is too much duplication of effort...we need to focus on increasing the number of starters across the nation....the only way this can be done is to call upon the breeders to accept this new paradigm....Individual owners will still be an integral part of racing but the crisis of these times demands that many more starters become available as soon as possible....
There is a lot of cost associated with owning a racehorse, but think of the advantages of Ralph's idea of having all horses owned by the track. You could essentially make purses zero. Oh, you'd still have to pay the trainers and make sure it was enough to cover all the people who care for the horse, including the vets, unless the track just put everyone on a payroll. Sort of like doctors who work for hospitals instead of going into private practice. You'd have to get rid of the claiming races so you didn't have some outside trainer come in and grab your horses and take them elsewhere. And you also might take some of the incentive away from jockeys and trainers trying as hard, unless maybe you offered bonuses based on wins.

Another question. Wouldn't the breeding operations keep the best horses for themselves, and only sell the crap? And who would pay the breeding fee? Do you pay up front and get the foal that comes from a contract, or do you wait and pay for the horses they are willing to sell you? And does the breeder always set the price? Lots of details to work out.

Finally, you'd probably need 1,600 or so horses for a meet. If you wanted to run 10 races a day, four days a week, you'd need 400 horses a week. They all aren't going to come from breeding operations. You'd probably have to buy a lot of horses from the pool of animals already running. Lot of cost there potentially.

You know why we have fewer foals from the high years don't you? It had a lot to do with the last time the feds got rid of a lot of tax deductions. It was profitable to own horses because of the tax advantages, and when those went away, investors went away. There is plenty of space for horses at the track if there were horses to run, but there is no incentive to breed more horses and the system has stabilized at about 20,000 foals a year.

Do you know what the relationship is for increasing the number of starters? For every 1% increase in starters you get a 1.58% increase in handle (although it isn't a straight line function). If you could move the average number of starters from 7 to 10, on average you'd get a 30% increase in handle. That would be a big deal.
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Old 04-27-2017, 10:23 AM   #168
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Yes, he may get 7/2 on one ticket, 10-1 on another ticket, 100-1 on a another ticket, but he may get 2-1 on another, and 1-1 on another. His volatility will be related to "net" price over a series of bets. If the net is 7/2 long term then his volatility will be approximately equal to a win better that plays some 7/2 shots, some 10-1 shots, some 100-1 shots, some 2-1 shots etc... It's all the same. The volatility is dependent on the odds range.

Setting this aside, I think the whole idea of going for "scores" is idiotic.

Every win and exotic bet has a probability of coming in and a payoff. You should play overlays and not worry about where along the spectrum the payoff might be. I would gladly take 2.70 to place with a 80% chance of cashing for the rest of my life. I couldn't care less about making scores. But if I have 2 live longshots in the same race I'll box those also. I think mostly exotic players horrible misplay them because of all the respected but bad literature out there, but that's another story.
Anyone who actually wants to understand betting horses to make money should commit the above to memory.

The strategy for making money is simple. Bet horses (or combinations of horses) with a probability of winning is greater than their tote odds. It's not easy because the calculation of probability of winning is not like calculating the odds of catching a queen on the river in Hold 'Em. There are a lot of more artful than statistical factors when calculating a horse's probabilities. But if you get good at it, you have a better than average chance of being a winner.

And Class hit the nail on the head. If you have the Ralph Kramden approach to betting the horses - always looking for the big score - you'll be up, you'll be down, and mostly you'll be down. I've always been of the opinion that there are a lot of good handicappers out there, and about 2% of them (that's a hyperbolic, made up statistic to make a point) understand how to make money parimutuelly.
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Old 04-27-2017, 11:26 AM   #169
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.......Setting this aside, I think the whole idea of going for "scores" is idiotic.

Every win and exotic bet has a probability of coming in and a payoff. You should play overlays and not worry about where along the spectrum the payoff might be. I would gladly take 2.70 to place with a 80% chance of cashing for the rest of my life. I couldn't care less about making scores. But if I have 2 live longshots in the same race I'll box those also. I think mostly exotic players horrible misplay them because of all the respected but bad literature out there, but that's another story.

I think the whole idea of grinding it out is idiotic, but it may be right for you. I think you can be successful either way.
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Old 04-27-2017, 11:47 AM   #170
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I would gladly take 2.70 to place with a 80% chance of cashing for the rest of my life. I couldn't care less about making scores.
Happiness is when your talent can meet your expectations.....If you're happy being a "place bet grinder" at the NYRA, then more power to you in your "safe zone". However, those who have the patience, bankroll and perseverance to withstand the variance that comes with making long-term +ROI exotic scores, IMO are living a much fuller and richer overall experience, which carries over into dealing with everyday life stresses/struggles and its more complex problems/solutions.
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:19 PM   #171
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Happiness is when your talent can meet your expectations.....If you're happy being a "place bet grinder" at the NYRA, then more power to you in your "safe zone". However, those who have the patience, bankroll and perseverance to withstand the variance that comes with making long-term +ROI exotic scores, IMO are living a much fuller and richer overall experience, which carries over into dealing with everyday life stresses/struggles and its more complex problems/solutions.
Thank you! I couldn't have phrased it much better myself!

Thank goodness that Vertical betting is alive and well!
It sure does make the game more interesting!
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:35 PM   #172
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Happiness is when your talent can meet your expectations.....If you're happy being a "place bet grinder" at the NYRA, then more power to you in your "safe zone". However, those who have the patience, bankroll and perseverance to withstand the variance that comes with making long-term +ROI exotic scores, IMO are living a much fuller and richer overall experience, which carries over into dealing with everyday life stresses/struggles and its more complex problems/solutions.
I think this is 100 percent precisely wrong.

Players looking for big scores generally have no idea if they have even outrun variance, and are far more likely to have discipline / compulsion issues. If they are "happier" (and they are only happier when running good), it's because they are satiating their brain's desire for action, not because they are necessarily making +EV plays.
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:47 PM   #173
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You'll have to give us the details on how that would work. Somebody still has to own the horses, and the breeding operations make a lot of money selling yearlings. And it's not like there is no cost to producing a foal.
My dad, a small-ish owner (about 8-10 claimers) and devoted horseplayer tells me the Adena/Stronach does just this in Florida. He puts horses in the hands of low % trainers to keep the stalls full.

As is often the case with dad, he's infuriatingly short on details. But in my experience eventually he's proven correct on these sorts of crazy assertions.

Certainly there ARE significant costs and uncertainty along the path of bringing a foal to a racing ready 2yo.

And given what we know about the % of foals that actually make it to their 1st race, never mind their first win, it would take a large overall boost to the foal crop to make a difference down the line in the race-ready population.

And we're seeing strength in the upper ends of the sales but softness in the middle and lower-middle (from what I read), so somehow there's money there.

Something tells me a clever person could figure this out...work on the supply side of bringing more foals into the mix.
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:51 PM   #174
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I think this is 100 percent precisely wrong.

Players looking for big scores generally have no idea if they have even outrun variance, and are far more likely to have discipline / compulsion issues. If they are "happier" (and they are only happier when running good), it's because they are satiating their brain's desire for action, not because they are necessarily making +EV plays.
Of course, you're entitled to your opinion, even if it's 100% wrong..
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:54 PM   #175
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I think this is 100 percent precisely wrong.

Players looking for big scores generally have no idea if they have even outrun variance, and are far more likely to have discipline / compulsion issues. If they are "happier" (and they are only happier when running good), it's because they are satiating their brain's desire for action, not because they are necessarily making +EV plays.
We are not speaking generally, we are speaking personally and specifically. Personally, I find that +EV plays are much easier to uncover in exotic pools.
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Old 04-27-2017, 01:08 PM   #176
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Happiness is when your talent can meet your expectations.....If you're happy being a "place bet grinder" at the NYRA, then more power to you in your "safe zone". However, those who have the patience, bankroll and perseverance to withstand the variance that comes with making long-term +ROI exotic scores, IMO are living a much fuller and richer overall experience, which carries over into dealing with everyday life stresses/struggles and its more complex problems/solutions.
Set aside X dollars for playing the races. Ostensibly the amount you can "afford" to lose. Bet any way you want. If at the end of the year you have any amount of money left in the bankroll, you should be happy.

On the other hand, if your goal is to have more money in the bankroll than when you started, you better have a plan that will get you there.

I'm not going to disagree with you, but there is no reason you can't have it both ways. You can grind and churn in the safer pools and play the more complex exotics.

I've never known anyone who made money at the track to be anything other than happy.
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Old 04-27-2017, 01:54 PM   #177
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We are not speaking generally, we are speaking personally and specifically. Personally, I find that +EV plays are much easier to uncover in exotic pools.
Yes but only with the proportional risk level. I'd need the place price at 2.80 for the 80% rate. Risk averse.
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Old 04-27-2017, 02:00 PM   #178
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Set aside X dollars for playing the races. Ostensibly the amount you can "afford" to lose. Bet any way you want. If at the end of the year you have any amount of money left in the bankroll, you should be happy.

On the other hand, if your goal is to have more money in the bankroll than when you started, you better have a plan that will get you there.

I'm not going to disagree with you, but there is no reason you can't have it both ways. You can grind and churn in the safer pools and play the more complex exotics.

I've never known anyone who made money at the track to be anything other than happy.
I would say that anyone who can play both sides of this fence at a certain level of contentment is playing at the very top of their game. I find myself going back and forth between the two styles. I do not maintain proper bankroll discipline to track the results properly so I make it more difficult on myself to find a balance.

It's always something.
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Old 04-27-2017, 02:05 PM   #179
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Set aside X dollars for playing the races. Ostensibly the amount you can "afford" to lose. Bet any way you want. If at the end of the year you have any amount of money left in the bankroll, you should be happy.

On the other hand, if your goal is to have more money in the bankroll than when you started, you better have a plan that will get you there.

I'm not going to disagree with you, but there is no reason you can't have it both ways. You can grind and churn in the safer pools and play the more complex exotics.

I've never known anyone who made money at the track to be anything other than happy.
End of the YEAR?
Heck I try to reach my goals by the end of the MONTH!

This game is NOT about Picking Winners!
It's ALL about making Winning Plays!
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Old 04-27-2017, 02:06 PM   #180
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Live tweets from this mornings CHRB meeting. Jeremy Balan works for BloodHorse

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