POPS&TIPS

[Roger]

Originally Posted by LEN C

Have you tried adjusting other TIPS, and see if that works? I have just tried it and it works fine. Others here have also reported that they get it to work fine. Perhaps illustrate the process you use and we can spot an adjustment. Are you clicking on the bottom horizontal box to register the adjustment?

From Len's response to my initial post concerning WUT, it doesn't seem to be causing him a problem...It doesn't work on this end!

Roger

[Wickel]

Len,

So is all this leading up to another update for all of us?

[fight]

question...when upgrade comes after the download will it still leave or values the same or are they deleted?ty

[jcburgeson]

Originally Posted by dartman51

Nice one jc. Have you made any adjustments on the TIP values, or are you playing them as they came??

Yes, I increased by 0.5 to 1.0 the values of Art Baker's and Jon Worth's favored TIPS; that is, I made about two dozen small changes.

[artbaker]

Race 5 Duke of Mischief 12-1 on ML Huge WSWP (not picked up by program because the trainer had two workouts on back-to-back days), that is successive days, something you see only rarely and when you do you just walk to the window and back up the track. 26.20 11.40 7.20

The second horse was WSWP, Glitterman's Hotel, with Top Trainer. This one was picked up by the program. (Note: Len promises to ffix his misinterpretation in the update): 7.80/ 6.40

The $2.00 exacta was $240.80

The $1 Trifecta paid $1,873.20

The favorite was a toss, a horse that finished 2nd in MSW in only start and was dropping into a claimer off a two month layoff. These nearly always lose.

If you want to check it, you will see that Duke of Mischief had successive workouts on Jan. 17/18, one from the gate at 3f and then one at 4f.

[Wickel]

C'mon on, Jon Worth. Chime in on this good stuff.

[OpenDaGate]

Len,

Thanks for informing Dave of RPM Publications about your upcoming new
TIPS Selector version and the MS Access research program. As you know,
when I recently ordered this update from Dave he thought I was wanting
the mere version 5.0 of TIPS. Dave did give me a refund, as I had
purchased that version 5 of TIPS some time ago.

So, when will you get the new TIPS w/ research module ready for sale?
What will it be called so that when I order your latest TIPS release I
can specify exactly what I am ordering?

Could you outline how the research can be done with the new TIPS
software using the MS Access software? Will there be a way to include
the result files with the card files to build databases without having
to add one card and one result file at a time? I saw somewhere that
about 500 races will come with this new update to help get one started
with the research. About how long would it take me to add on my 18,346
cards with results files? Or, will this new research version of TIPS
with Access not be so practical to use with large numbers of cards?

Also, it would be a real help to have one complete Word Document that
would explain TIPS program operations and how to use ACCESS with the new
TIPS. Also, I would like to see all of the explanations of every tip-off
and feature like the CHART-KELLY ratings. This way when I figure
something out, I could add notes to this Word document for my own
reference needs and eventually this could be shared with others. Other
TIPS aficionados could contribute their insights to each area of
interest to their versions of this documentation for their own good
recall. This way those who ended up adding very much to your
documentation could submit this for your review to improve your
documentation without much additional work on your part. Better
documentation could reduce the number of questions you need to answer
from customers and also serve to promote new sales.

I would like to be able to use TIPS with multiple glossary.mdb files.
Currently TIPS insists on only using the one glossary in one directory.
Why not program TIPS so it will use the glossary located in the same
directory as TIPS.EXE so one could install multiple copies of TIPS and
have a different glossary in each directory? This way one could use a
version of the glossary for claiming routes, or whatever else one wanted
to work up to customize each glossary. Also, it would be handy to allow the user
to enter a name to identify each copy of TIPS on the same computer so
one could tell when using multiple copies which one is for claiming
routes, which one for maiden sprints, etc.

Eventually it would be best to be able to set up TIPS to use multiple
glossary files in the same directory, one for each type of race, but
this could require a lot more programming work than merely allowing TIPS
to use whatever glossary happens to be in the same directory as each
installed TIPS program when one has multiple installs of TIPS. Something
like this use of multiple customized glossary files may already be
possible to manage, and if so then instructions on how to use multiple
copies of TIPS with different glossaries on the same computer would be
helpful.

Just a few questions and suggestions: Thanks for all you have done with
the TIPS program, Len.

rkaic

[Tipster1]

Without trying to step on too many toes here I am still not sure what all the hoopla is about on the TIPS software. From what I can tell it is simply a program that extracts a number of angles or factors from a single data file. From the version I seen there about 120 if you want to call them tips available according to it's glossary. Some of these tips I guess can be called angles, spot plays or just simple factors extracted. After glancing through the glossary I don't see any that will work enough to show profits in the long run. Anyone with a database can query many of these mechanical "tips" to see in black and white what the outcome will be. For the hec of it I randomly grabbed out about 30 and queried them over a very large database. All came back with very bad minus rois. So I'm not sure what the excitement is about of a new version coming out. Of course some of the glossary doesn't go into great detail on some tips so they can't be queried accurately.

Now some may agrue that the value may be by combining certain individual tips with others one may create a solid profitable angle. I doubt that very much cause more often than not by combining a bad roi angle with another bad one usually is not enough to turn two negatives into a positive. That is just the usual way it works. And sure you can start making all kinds of multi-tips combos but then again your number of plays will go way down and usually won't help your roi anyway.

If I am missing something on this TIPS software please enlighten me.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Tipster1

Without trying to step on too many toes here I am still not sure what all the hoopla is about on the TIPS software. From what I can tell it is simply a program that extracts a number of angles or factors from a single data file. From the version I seen there about 120 if you want to call them tips available according to it's glossary. Some of these tips I guess can be called angles, spot plays or just simple factors extracted. After glancing through the glossary I don't see any that will work enough to show profits in the long run. Anyone with a database can query many of these mechanical "tips" to see in black and white what the outcome will be. For the hec of it I randomly grabbed out about 30 and queried them over a very large database. All came back with very bad minus rois. So I'm not sure what the excitement is about of a new version coming out. Of course some of the glossary doesn't go into great detail on some tips so they can't be queried accurately. Now some may agrue that the value may be by combining certain individual tips with others one may create a solid profitable angle. I doubt that very much cause more often than not by combining a bad roi angle with another bad one usually is not enough to turn two negatives into a positive. That is just the usual way it works. And sure you can start making all kinds of multi-tips combos but then again your number of plays will go way down and usually won't help your roi anyway.
If I am missing something on this TIPS software please enlighten me.

Allow me......A few years back, I began noticing Billy Mott being very consistent on the TURF. Or so I thought. I ran a query through my data base and discovered a negative R.O.I. So ran another with Bailey up and came up with a positive R.O.I. Therefore I only played Mott's horse on grass when Bailey was up and it worked. With TIPS the winner is one of the 3 TTT horses quiet a bit. That by itself doesn't help all that much, but combined with other things you can show a profit. It's NOT a BLACK BOX.

[Jeep]

How about Mott on grass a negative ROI, Bailey on grass a negative ROI, but Bailey on a Mott horse on grass a positive ROI. 2 negative = a positive.
Jeep

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Jeep

How about Mott on grass a negative ROI, Bailey on grass a negative ROI, but Bailey on a Mott horse on grass a positive ROI. 2 negative = a positive.
Jeep

There ya go....

[Lefty]

how about an uptodate example?

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Lefty

how about an uptodate example?

OK.....Stay with MOTT.....1695 races on the turf -16.48 R.O.I
1592 races on the dirt -30.43 R.O.I.
359 races going from dirt to turf +2.17 R.O.I.

You have to pick your spots.

[Tipster1]

All this kind of stuff is nonsense and useless to me anyway. Once you have a good size database you can backtest just about anything and find something with a +roi. I can take just about any jockey and query it through hundreds of factors within seconds. It will tell me anything I want how this jockey does with this trainer, on E horse, favorite in the race, weight, best speed horse in race, route turfs, etc. Every possible thing you can imagine and most definitely will find many, many things that are profitable. But 99.9% of all those things won't work forwardly through new races and databases mostly cause now your new sample size of plays is meaningless. All this means what happened in the past for that jockey or even that trainer doesn't mean squat today. I wish some things as silly as this type of querying and methodology will work in the long run but don't. If they did I would be using them all day long.

Plus so many of these trainer/jockey catagories and angles are available in most PPs. Just look at really good angles like Blue Chip Trainer Angles. Look at all those great win percents and nice rois. Go ahead and play them all and let me know how you did at years end.

You know even need TIPS to find all these things out anyway just some huge databases.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Tipster1

All this kind of stuff is nonsense and useless to me anyway. Once you have a good size database you can backtest just about anything and find something with a +roi. I can take just about any jockey and query it through hundreds of factors within seconds. It will tell me anything I want how this jockey does with this trainer, on E horse, favorite in the race, weight, best speed horse in race, route turfs, etc. Every possible thing you can imagine and most definitely will find many, many things that are profitable. But 99.9% of all those things won't work forwardly through new races and databases mostly cause now your new sample size of plays is meaningless. All this means what happened in the past for that jockey or even that trainer doesn't mean squat today. I wish some things as silly as this type of querying and methodology will work in the long run but don't. If they did I would be using them all day long.

Plus so many of these trainer/jockey catagories and angles are available in most PPs. Just look at really good angles like Blue Chip Trainer Angles. Look at all those great win percents and nice rois. Go ahead and play them all and let me know how you did at years end.

You know even need TIPS to find all these things out anyway just some huge databases.

WOW!!! Sounds like you need a hobby, and it obviously isn't horse racing. Try croquet, that might be your speed.