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03-01-2020, 07:43 PM
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#1156
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
Seriously, is this a Vegas bet or something?
I only trade puts and calls on the SPY for my action.
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A few ways to get down
If you're in many countries the CFD market
or more easily, the futures options market, open now
I think we'll see the hit rate on predictions converge a lot closer to 50% than 90%, if we can keep it real here.
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03-01-2020, 08:02 PM
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#1157
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
A few ways to get down
If you're in many countries the CFD market
or more easily, the futures options market, open now
I think we'll see the hit rate on predictions converge a lot closer to 50% than 90%, if we can keep it real here.
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Thank you.
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03-01-2020, 08:02 PM
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#1158
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Is this how it's going to go...each side calling the other out depending on which way the market moves? 
Call me when we have a daily close below 2850 on the ES. Then you can start selling in earnest.
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03-01-2020, 08:26 PM
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#1159
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Is this how it's going to go...each side calling the other out depending on which way the market moves?
Call me when we have a daily close below 2850 on the ES. Then you can start selling in earnest. |
Its coming, but tomorrow it is going to close higher.
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03-02-2020, 12:59 AM
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#1160
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I'm playing the "don't".....With odds.
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Oh look...futures have risen back up to the level of Friday's close...how interesting...
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03-02-2020, 01:01 AM
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#1161
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
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So do we wait till Tuesday to see what happens?
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03-02-2020, 09:40 AM
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#1162
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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NVAX
tried to tell ya
its about the sell not the buy
s&p
doubt anyone here big and bad enough to trade this live
live entries and exits or its papertrading
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03-02-2020, 11:22 AM
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#1163
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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congrats on calling the biggest bottom in history!
Now the only question is , do we claim 100 ES points or more !
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03-02-2020, 11:44 AM
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#1164
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Wait, you're a tryhard asshole...now I get it.
And I trade the ES every day I get a signal.
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03-02-2020, 12:15 PM
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#1165
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
NVAX
tried to tell ya
its about the sell not the buy
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Sold some at 16 last week. Will HODL the rest - playing with house money. They just raised $150M by diluting the stock, though. Meeting at the WH this afternoon.
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03-02-2020, 12:23 PM
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#1166
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Wait, you're a tryhard asshole...now I get it.
And I trade the ES every day I get a signal.
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Yeah like the signal you were supposed to give before the 13% carnage.
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03-02-2020, 02:30 PM
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#1167
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
Yeah like the signal you were supposed to give before the 13% carnage.
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Been there, done that.
Now? Zero ****s given.
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03-02-2020, 04:15 PM
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#1168
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
You do realize (apparently not) that percentage moves trump (pun intended) point moves? The indexes are considerably higher with a much higher denominator now. Plenty of big percentage losses during the Obama years of 2008 & 2009, the Bush years of 2001-2002 and Clinton in 2000.
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Yes. I know. As a numerical data set its eye-candy & junk analysis. But as calendar data it might be macro-representative of what the market will be. Nothing to do with Trump, more hyper-disruptive due to the pace of innovation.
The fact that 2017-2020 is in the eight is the minor value.
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03-02-2020, 04:20 PM
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#1169
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Whoever picked "up by almost 1,300 points" wins today's round.
Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 03-02-2020 at 04:22 PM.
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03-02-2020, 04:26 PM
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#1170
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
But to more directly answer your question...hell no, you can't sell now.
Why would you? If you're holding long term. It hasn't even retraced 50% of the move it made over the past year or so (going back to the low put in around Dec 2018). Let's see what happens around the 2800-2900 level on the S&P before we start to panic.
From sep 2018 to dec 2018 the S&P dropped around 500 points. We still have about 100 points to go to equal that move...which, uncoincidentally, is around the 2800-2900 mark.
Fun how numbers always seem to work out in the markets.
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Can you believe Alton the Great busts my balls about the above?
I posted the above on February 27 @ 11:43pm.
And the market pretty much has played out as I predicted.
And then Alton the Great tells me AFTER THE FACT how those levels were SO OBVIOUS even RAY CHARLES could see it....yet...he didn't tell me this BEFORE IT PLAYED OUT....only after...
Nice red boarding by you as well...if it was so obvious, you should have pointed out how simple and easy a call it was BEFORE it actually happened. Not after.
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