|
|
04-17-2014, 06:53 PM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
|
EVD is as random as they get
Winner of the 1st on 4-17-14.
I'm all for prices but not when they look like this.
|
|
|
04-17-2014, 10:34 PM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,829
|
Maybe they were just waiting until they got a good price
Whatever happened between Jan. 31 and now worked for them. I guess that drop from maiden $10K at DED to $7,500 at EVD is a steep one. Plus, first time going 7F. Damn, wish I'd seen all this before he ran .
|
|
|
04-17-2014, 10:40 PM
|
#3
|
BC Canada
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 2,286
|
Well, that was a smoking half mile comeback workout compared to the others pre-debut
|
|
|
04-17-2014, 10:50 PM
|
#4
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,584
|
(1) valento, you're a little intense sometimes but still one of my favorite posters here... but we're on PACE advantage, so where are the horse's moss pace figures?
(2) evd is the kind of outhouse where it's a good play to wait for a Sammy breaux horse that looks like crap but is maybe getting some mid level betting action. you might have the horse 15-1, 20-1 + but he opens at 3-1 and drifts up to 5-1 or 6-1. not really my style of play, but when in Louisiana....
|
|
|
04-17-2014, 10:52 PM
|
#5
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Thanks for the post. I will put Ronnie Averett on my trainer watch list. He's now 2 for 2 at EVD, and looks like he's found a new vet.............
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 12:09 AM
|
#6
|
EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
|
As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 10:57 AM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: toronto
Posts: 545
|
i don't typically yell and scream "fix" when i can't understand a result,
BUT i will only play that track when i am bored, i play my favourite numbers and i am really happy when they are long odds.
I can not cap there
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 11:00 AM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valento
Winner of the 1st on 4-17-14.
I'm all for prices but not when they look like this.
|
Based on the PP's, the horse looks pretty consistent to me.
La. Bred 7.5k Mdns. Nuff said
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 12:08 PM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Mukwonago, WI
Posts: 3,208
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.
|
That's a stretch for a horse who, in 3 races, beat just one horse collectively.
Nothing here would lead me to bet this horse, even with someone else's money.
__________________
"I don't always frequent message boards, but when I do, I prefer PaceAdvantage."
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 12:19 PM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
|
$160 is an underlay on that horse in Evangeline. the price should have been about 830-1 by my calculations. horses that have that type of form win once a twice a year at any track. but you will lose a lot of money chasing them.
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 12:37 PM
|
#11
|
EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by wisconsin
That's a stretch for a horse who, in 3 races, beat just one horse collectively.
Nothing here would lead me to bet this horse, even with someone else's money.
|
I didn't say I would have bet the horse, but being a 3 yo, and having the good workout on an off track, etc., it's not too surprising that the horse "woke up" between its last race and this one, especially at EvD where, like DeD, you have to look at things that you might not at other tracks. This result is not unusual at smaller tracks like this, and one of the reasons I choose to play them.
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 04:43 PM
|
#12
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
|
Coming off a triple top - he had to improve.
Can't beat those Beyer bagels.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 05:57 PM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
|
there is a reason god made bourbon
__________________
Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 08:15 PM
|
#14
|
Scum Bum!
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,889
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandpit
Maybe they were just waiting until they got a good price
Whatever happened between Jan. 31 and now worked for them. I guess that drop from maiden $10K at DED to $7,500 at EVD is a steep one. Plus, first time going 7F. Damn, wish I'd seen all this before he ran .
|
He ran somewhat closer to the pace last out...but still..
Last edited by Tall One; 04-18-2014 at 08:16 PM.
|
|
|
04-18-2014, 08:54 PM
|
#15
|
Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
|
The ultimate debate in horse racing and the question that we always need to answer is this.
Can a horse who "cant win" actually win?
This means, no matter how bad a horse looks, if it wins, there was something within its body, legs and heart, that gave it enough talent to win some race at some track.
The question isn't "how did this horse win" its more of "what did i miss".
If you win, you were good enough to win by definition, usually, when this happens, we have overrated the competition...if a horse who looks horrendous on paper wins, the horse's he beat, who probably looked better, were in fact, not....the key was just to find a way to know this before the race and if you don't find a way to know it before the race, find a way to figure it out AFTER so you're better prepared next time.
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|