"Fed Up With the CAWs..."

[mountainman]

A former NHC winner all but saying he thinks major factions can bet during the race. Not a unique or narrowly held suspicion, but a bit rare for public utterance by such a credible handicapper.

That aside, I can direct (Ct and Mvr are the tracks I play) my focus to subtleties that might escape caw's purview, but that takes excruciating effort and renders most of my knowledge useless-if not sometimes counter-productive. It's terrifying to consider how much smarter (and prevalent) the late money has become at Mvr, in particular, over the last 6 or 7 years.

Even so, my problem with the situation is not necessarily caw's amazing skill at doping out a horserace, but instead the fact that value sometimes seems a secondary concern to them. Largely, they seem in the business of ferreting out winners-underlaid odds and self-cannibalization be damned. Why can they take this approach yet remain profitable? Rebates? Or is the quoted handicapper on to something more ominous?

Whatever the case, how can non-computer players survive without knowing (until halfway around the far turn)just HOW short a (self-cannibalized) price the caws were willing to accept on a horse (or permutation)?

I once prided myself on ability to predict closing odds and tote corrections, but these days, I am wrong with those predictions more often than I care to admit. Clearly, there are forces increasingly in play that "handicap" very differently than I do, or perhaps am even capable of.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by mountainman

A former NHC winner all but saying he thinks major factions can bet during the race. Not a unique or narrowly held suspicion, but a bit rare for public utterance by such a credible handicapper.

That aside, I can direct (Ct and Mvr are the tracks I play) my focus to subtleties that might escape caw's purview, but that takes excruciating effort and renders most of my knowledge useless-if not sometimes counter-productive. It's terrifying to consider how much smarter (and prevalent) the late money has become at Mvr, in particular, over the last 6 or 7 years.

Even so, my problem with the situation is not necessarily caw's amazing skill at doping out a horserace, but instead the fact that value sometimes seems a secondary concern to them. Largely, they seem in the business of ferreting out winners-underlaid odds and self-cannibalization be damned. Why can they take this approach yet remain profitable? Rebates? Or is the quoted handicapper on to something more ominous?

Whatever the case, how can non-computer players survive without knowing (until halfway around the far turn)just HOW short a (self-cannibalized) price the caws were willing to accept on a horse (or permutation)?

I once prided myself on ability to predict closing odds and tote corrections, but these days, I am wrong with those predictions more often than I care to admit. Clearly, there are forces increasingly in play that "handicap" very differently than I do, or perhaps am even capable of.

Mark - I do not believe handicapping can lead to the results these CAW get. The shared information we all use (no matter how obscure it may seem to us) can only get one so far down the path. I could be wrong here but I actually believe their accuracy is a product of inside (connection) information. It wouldn't surprise me if the CAW's have an onsite liaison (mole) that parses information back to the entities for a fee. If I'm wrong on this, and the CAW's are merely scrapping data we all have access to and their algorithms are finding winners at this never-seen-before, alarming rate, the game will cease to exist sooner than later. As technology advances, this would lead to an even higher percentage of winners at depressed odds. No one would take the game seriously. Pick your poison.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Mark - I do not believe handicapping can lead to the results these CAW get. The shared information we all use (no matter how obscure it may seem to us) can only get one so far down the path. I could be wrong here but I actually believe their accuracy is a product of inside (connection) information. It wouldn't surprise me if the CAW's have an onsite liaison (mole) that parses information back to the entities for a fee. If I'm wrong on this, and the CAW's are merely scrapping data we all have access to and their algorithms are finding winners at this never-seen-before, alarming rate, the game will cease to exist sooner than later. As technology advances, this would lead to an even higher percentage of winners at depressed odds. No one would take the game seriously. Pick your poison.

I can find detect the occasional blind-spot in caw's all-seeing field of vision, but such instances are not common, and not worth the effort and patience to find. I played less than ever last winter (when Mnr was down), and will wager even less this winter. In fact, the real allure for me has become hanging with old pals and soaking in the ambience. I treasure time with guys that knew me back in the day. And when I encounter one who actually knew my dad, it becomes a near spiritual experience.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I can find detect the occasional blind-spot in caw's all-seeing field of vision, but such instances are not common, and not worth the effort and patience to find. I played less than ever last winter (when Mnr was down), and will wager even less this winter. In fact, the real allure for me has become hanging with old pals and soaking in the ambience. I treasure time with guys that knew me back in the day. And when I encounter one who actually knew my dad, it becomes a near spiritual experience.

You are an expert handicapper. As am I. As are many of the people reading this post on this site. But it's starting to remind me of the tale of John Henry. And not the John Henry we all love (horse) but the greatest manual steel driving man that competed against a steam-powered rock drilling machine. In other words, the best axe chopper stands little chance against a chainsaw.

Horse racing is still the best gambling/racing/strategy/statistic game available to us and the positives, at least for me, still keep me in the game. I don't mind the challenge of combating CAWs. It just would be nice if the game pivoted away from short term monetary gain to long term health (advocating for common horse players vs CAW). I know that is a hard decision for them to make considering the amount of handle the CAW's generate. But, I fear, we are entering the "penny-wise, pound-foolish" state of racing.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

I'm all for sharing of new ideas.

Ten yeas ago I would have stood up and applauded your willingness to do that.

Be aware the larger CAW teams are structured like small corporations and employ some really smart people.

Some of those people read these threads and make the occasional post.

If you post a successful methodology or thought process that truly does enable players to thrive vs. the CAW teams, guarantee you someone working for a CAW team will see what was posted, write code that captures the essence of it, and test it out.

From there, if significance testing shows it to have value:

That CAW team will quietly incorporate it into their process.

Afterwards, the average odds for plays identified by the successful thought process posted will take a hit.



-jp
.

Exactly

It's certainly OK to have a few racing buddies you privately bat things around with or share info with, but widespread public education just makes the game tougher.

Besides that, the only policy that makes sense for someone that's putting a lot of work into trying to beat this game is to stay quiet about their approach. Even giving out horses without explanation is problematical because a very sharp comprehensive handicapper will quickly find the patterns.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I could be wrong here but I actually believe their accuracy is a product of inside (connection) information. It wouldn't surprise me if the CAW's have an onsite liaison (mole) that parses information back to the entities for a fee.

I hadn't even considered that possibility, but it makes sense.

When I was a computer programmer at a major Wall St financial institution I had "read" access to the files that contained the holdings of a lot of large well known institutions. I needed it to do my job. It would have taken me about 15 minutes to write a program that would report on any day to day changes so I could see who was buying and selling which stocks and bonds before any SEC filings made the changes public.

There are almost certainly some people in the industry that have read access to pool info they could theoretically use for personal advantage or to sell. You would hope they aren't, but at a minimum it's possible and something I hadn't considered.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

It just would be nice if the game pivoted away from short term monetary gain to long term health (advocating for common horse players vs CAW). I know that is a hard decision for them to make considering the amount of handle the CAW's generate. But, I fear, we are entering the "penny-wise, pound-foolish" state of racing.

I'm not even sure how that can be done other than controlling the pool data access and late betting aspect of it better.

I write computer programs that use PP and chart data to test ideas, generate metrics, generate reports and provide other information I use in my handicapping. IMO, that gives me an advantage over someone that can't test their ideas against real data quickly and that has to do many of the things I do systematically manually instead.

You can't really stop me from doing that.

There's nothing to stop someone with more advanced data processing and math skills than me from writing extremely sophisticated line making tools and using that information to bet.

What we can do is SLOW them down so they can't scour the pools systematically looking for the best value and systematically sending in huge batches of bets very quickly in the last seconds. If everyone had to put their bets in manually, it would at least just come down to the handicapping. There might be a way to improve that area and make the playing field more level.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I could be wrong here but I actually believe their accuracy is a product of inside (connection) information.

We have all heard bad "tips" on horses, but there is unquestionably good information on the backstretch that could be used to supplement handicapping and make more accurate lines. In what was practically another lifetime in the 70s when I was a hotwalker I used to occasionally get good information or know things about the horses in our care that gave me an edge.

[Jeff P]

CAW (computer assisted wagering) is only made available to a select few. It's what gives them (whale teams) the ability to generate and submit thousands of tickets in the seconds leading up to race off.

Most ADWs offer text file upload. It's a really cool feature. But from a bandwith/tickets per second perspective it's purposely throttled down and orders of magnitude slower than CAW.

Imo, that's a huge problem.

The system creates an unlevel playing field that (by design) puts everybody (except the select few given access to CAW) at a serious disadvantage.

I don't care how they do it, but the industry needs to put everybody on the same level playing field.

• If you eliminate CAW: The whale teams are going to bet less (a LOT less.) But you create a level playing field.

• If you slow CAW down to the point where it's on par with Text File Upload: The whale teams are going to bet less. But you create a level playing field.

• My suggestion is this: If you slow CAW down a little and (at the same time) speed up Text File Upload a lot so as to reach the point where both CAW and Text File Upload are basically the same in terms of bandwith/tickets per second:

I'm thinking CAW teams will bet less than they do now (but not drastically less.) And from a bandwith/tickets per second per second perspective, everybody is on the same level playing field.


-jp
.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

CAW (computer assisted wagering) is only made available to a select few. It's what gives them (whale teams) the ability to generate and submit thousands of tickets in the seconds leading up to race off.

Most ADWs offer text file upload. It's a really cool feature. But from a bandwith/tickets per second perspective it's purposely throttled down and orders of magnitude slower than CAW.

Imo, that's a huge problem.

The system creates an unlevel playing field that (by design) puts everybody (except the select few given access to CAW) at a serious disadvantage.

I don't care how they do it, but the industry needs to put everybody on the same level playing field.

• If you eliminate CAW: The whale teams are going to bet less (a LOT less.) But you create a level playing field.

• If you slow CAW down to the point where it's on par with Text File Upload: The whale teams are going to bet less. But you create a level playing field.

• My suggestion is this: If you slow CAW down a little and (at the same time) speed up Text File Upload a lot so as to reach the point where both CAW and Text File Upload are basically the same in terms of bandwith/tickets per second:

I'm thinking CAW teams will bet less than they do now (but not drastically less.) And from a bandwith/tickets per second per second perspective, everybody is on the same level playing field.


-jp
.

This only applies to handicappers in states that permit ADW wagering. For the rest of us, we're another extreme level behind the curve, not only behind the CAW's, but also behind the ADW crowd, too.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Most ADWs offer text file upload. It's a really cool feature. But from a bandwith/tickets per second perspective it's purposely throttled down and orders of magnitude slower than CAW.
-jp
.

Does that feature work when you are betting by phone or IPAD or only via computer.

[Jeff P]

For me: Computer.

Could also see it working on an iPad or even a smartphone (if you're using the smartphone to browse a server you have control over.)

You'd need to code something capable of writing date, track, race, wagertype, base wager amount, and saddle cloth numbers to text or .csv files correctly formatted per specs available from the individual ADW.

It's not rocket science.

But it's also not trivial.

After tickets in a text or .csv file are verified:

The file can be uploaded by clicking an Upload Text File button at the ADW site that opens a dialog box. Select the file that contains the tickets you want to upload, and click a "GO" button.

At least that's the way it works at the primary ADW I use.


-jp
.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

For me: Computer.

Could also see it working on an iPad or even a smartphone (if you're using the smartphone to browse a server you have control over.)

You'd need to code something capable of writing date, track, race, wagertype, base wager amount, and saddle cloth numbers to text or .csv files correctly formatted per specs available from the individual ADW.

It's not rocket science.

But it's also not trivial.

After tickets in a text or .csv file are verified:

The file can be uploaded by clicking an Upload Text File button at the ADW site that opens a dialog box. Select the file that contains the tickets you want to upload, and click a "GO" button.

At least that's the way it works at the primary ADW I use.


-jp
.

Interesting. When I had access to ADW's, I would email an HTML file to myself to handicap from my phone during lunch. Or, I would upload a wager file before work. I never tried uploading a file from my phone.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Most ADWs offer text file upload.

When you say "most" can you please expand on which ADW's you're referring to? I think Twinspires got rid of this several years ago & never brought it back & nothing like this available on TVG, at least since I last asked customer reps about this kind of betting availability. Xpressbet, NYRA bets, any of these big guys have it??

[Jeff P]

AMWager:
https://www.amwager.com/file-upload-wagering/


Xpressbet:
https://dfu.xb-online.com/wagerupload/betupload.aspx


BetPTC
They offered text file upload. (Recall them being the very first to offer it.) But they were recently acquired and their site now redirects to https://www.pointsbetracing.com/ which bears lettering that says "Powered by 1/ST" (I suspect that's the same platform under the hood as Xpressbet.)

A Google search for the phrase "pointsbet racing text file upload" (without the quotes) didn't turn up any hits. Call the number on the Pointsbet Racing site and ask.


Twinspires
I never placed a wager with them. But a Google search for the phrase "Twinspires text file upload" (without the quotes) turned up the following link:
https://www.twinspires.com/batch-upload

If, like you say, they removed it and never brought it back then the page at the above link is just a remnant.


NYRA Bets
I never placed a wager with them. A Google search for the phrase "NYRA Bets text file upload" (without the quotes) didn't turn up any hits.

Maybe someone who uses NYRA Bets can chime in.



-jp
.