Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-20-2021, 11:09 PM   #16
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I wonder why none of the guys on here who watch (LIKE A HAWK) and report every five minutes on late odds drops in the win pool, never noticed the CAW "at the bell" money had been eliminated from the biggest meet in the country?

Even when Andy dropped a hint a few weeks ago, they still didn't notice until it was widely reported.

Fascinating.
That's because there’s NOTHING to “wonder” or be “fascinated” about. Anyone who just monitors the odds is doing nothing more than monitoring the Win pool. In case you forgot, there are 2 other mutual pools and a number of Exotic Vertical betting pools as well. They all have an impact in one way or another. Those who truly monitor the tote board activities are closely following the betting patterns generated by a number of these pools combined at various time intervals during an entire betting cycle. There’s no mystery when you actually know what to look for when following the flow of money.

BTW I happened to catch Andy one day discussing a seemingly overlaid odds on a horse that was 8/1 with one of the other announcers. This announcer couldn’t understand why those odds were so high because he felt they should be much lower based on his interpretation of the PP’s. Andy simply dismissed the lack of tote support and suggested that this announcer just ignore the inflated odds and go for it. In case anyone is wondering the horse finished up the track.
.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-20-2021, 11:15 PM   #17
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 View Post
Agree....

And look who's smack in the middle of this.....

Horse Racings biggest Corporate "Friend"...."Churchill Downs"

Question:

Will we as bettors find out what the Whales are betting ?
Stronach too.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-20-2021, 11:40 PM   #18
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
BTW I happened to catch Andy one day discussing a seemingly overlaid odds on a horse that was 8/1 with one of the other announcers. This announcer couldn’t understand why those odds were so high because he felt they should be much lower based on his interpretation of the PP’s. Andy simply dismissed the lack of tote support and suggested that this announcer just ignore the inflated odds and go for it. In case anyone is wondering the horse finished up the track.
.
Yeah, Andy has never mentioned a horse being dead on the board. He is so clueless!
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 01:35 AM   #19
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Yeah, Andy has never mentioned a horse being dead on the board. He is so clueless!
He very well might be.
Truthfully I couldn’t tell you one way or the other because I rarely watch that program. If he’s actually implied that situation in the past, then based how he handled the occasion I mentioned he’s not very consistent with his observations and assessments. But then again how could he be since he and many others time and again are only basing their thoughts and comments by referring to a single mutual pool during the betting cycle.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 06:55 AM   #20
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
He very well might be.
Truthfully I couldn’t tell you one way or the other because I rarely watch that program. If he’s actually implied that situation in the past, then based how he handled the occasion I mentioned he’s not very consistent with his observations and assessments. But then again how could he be since he and many others time and again are only basing their thoughts and comments by referring to a single mutual pool during the betting cycle.
From what I've seen at NYRA there is simply no need to look at other pools beyond DD to project the final odds very accurately. If we all pretty much know 20 minutes ahead of time what the odds will be I have no further complaints about odds volatility. Smaller tracks I can't speak to, I haven't done a study yet, maybe at smaller tracks other pools and more time may be needed to reach the same tolerances. Money flow, whaps etc whatever it is you're looking for I'm glad works wonders for you sir but I personally have no need or want for it, it's not the kind of game I want to play. The one time I went all in on a horse that I knew for a fact was juiced to the gills with clen and had barn money all over it the horse had a heart attack on the backstretch, collapsed and the rider was injured. I would appreciate it if the state gaming commission had an eye on the money flows though because anomalies can put them on the trail of some of these people who are outright cheating the public so they can hopefully put an end to that.
__________________
North American Class Rankings

Last edited by MJC922; 08-21-2021 at 06:58 AM.
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 09:33 AM   #21
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
I wonder how many more people are going to start betting to Win now?

My guess is very few people are going to change anything they are doing other than the computer guys.

Does this impact Place and Show also?

I may revisit the Place pool to see what’s going on in there now because late money used to correct that pool also. IMO, the Place pool is a bad idea in general, but it tends to be less efficient and sometimes there are gifts to be had. Maybe there will more of them.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-21-2021 at 09:36 AM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 09:50 AM   #22
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
This thread really has it all
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 10:31 AM   #23
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 12:57 PM   #24
geroge.burns99
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
STATS NOT showing bigger numbers for 2021

Attached Images
File Type: jpg 2020.JPG (19.6 KB, 19 views)
File Type: jpg 2021.JPG (19.4 KB, 17 views)
geroge.burns99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 01:32 PM   #25
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,513
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I wonder how many more people are going to start betting to Win now?

My guess is very few people are going to change anything they are doing other than the computer guys.

Does this impact Place and Show also?

I may revisit the Place pool to see what’s going on in there now because late money used to correct that pool also. IMO, the Place pool is a bad idea in general, but it tends to be less efficient and sometimes there are gifts to be had. Maybe there will more of them.
Not to get too far off topic , but it's related and somewhat interesting.
Feel free to disagree and make your case Class.
Tough for you or I to find any accidental inefficiencies.

Maybe we have an edge and our value opinion makes some inefficient pools clear to us.

But as far as being able to look at a place pool, and say is inefficient because it should have $500 more in the place pool, ... I can say with certainty that I'm almost always some combination of not good enough to tell that it's accidental/random, not late enough in betting vs late money corrections, and/or not worth enough value.

Once in rare a while a race later in the card has a bad Morning Line on a horse that hasn't been so touted as to make the ml meaningless, and if you had a good p3 or whatever, already (or wanted to go super lean and string some chalk that way) you could build a p3 or p4 or p5 to single the bad ml horse to buy a +value ticket because of inefficient betting from public who bets based on ml odds.

Other than that, those 3 adverse models (not good enough/not late enough/not worth my time) kick my butt.

I need to handicap, have opinions and see the various pools and tote odds to make value plays where I have significant difference of opinion in a market that is behaving about as expected.

the odds-correction stuff is best left to the computers and or specialists, or if you have 'ALL' to the last leg of a life-changing score and deposit a few bucks to hedge your outcomes a bit.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 03:35 PM   #26
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
He very well might be.
Truthfully I couldn’t tell you one way or the other because I rarely watch that program. If he’s actually implied that situation in the past, then based how he handled the occasion I mentioned he’s not very consistent with his observations and assessments. But then again how could he be since he and many others time and again are only basing their thoughts and comments by referring to a single mutual pool during the betting cycle.
Yeah, Andy never mentions any of the other pools and how the current win odds might not be a great representation of off odds. He is so clueless!
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-21-2021, 05:03 PM   #27
aaron
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Yeah, Andy never mentions any of the other pools and how the current win odds might not be a great representation of off odds. He is so clueless!
I agree CJ, Andy also never mentioned looking at the DD will pays to determine what the win price might be. He is going to have to do more work before going on air.
aaron is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-22-2021, 08:39 AM   #28
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Not to get too far off topic , but it's related and somewhat interesting.
Feel free to disagree and make your case Class.
Tough for you or I to find any accidental inefficiencies.
.
There are certain situations where a place bet will take a good chunk out of the take. If you throw a rebate on top it will get you fairly close to break even with no handicapping at all (they used to be profitable with no handicapping at all, just a few rules).

Those profitable opportunities dried up when the industry switched to net pool pricing for place/show, generous rebates started becoming harder to come by, and computers started coming in with huge late bets to correct the place pool.

If the computer guys abandon place betting a bit, it might be worth the energy to at least look at the place pool again.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-22-2021 at 08:40 AM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-22-2021, 10:49 AM   #29
SaratogaSteve
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron View Post
I agree CJ, Andy also never mentioned looking at the DD will pays to determine what the win price might be. He is going to have to do more work before going on air.
SaratogaSteve is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-22-2021, 02:16 PM   #30
geroge.burns99
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
Should HANA be pushing this on to the racing nation?

I don't think if it even talked about.....or maybe around any more

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/


GB

Last edited by geroge.burns99; 08-22-2021 at 02:18 PM.
geroge.burns99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:10 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.