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07-11-2022, 07:39 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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can anyone beat the public_____?
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I'm not referring to winning or making money - obviously there are some that can do that - probably most often with the exotics
I'm referring to one specific thing
it's well known that the public correctly identifies the winning horse as the fave right about 33% of the time
do you think you could do that if you were asked to do it if you weren't able to see the actual odds and weren't even able to see the M/L odds__________?
and do you think anybody could do it______?
I tend to think that maybe nobody could do it
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 07-11-2022 at 07:41 AM.
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07-11-2022, 09:28 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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fav win rate in todays world is a bit higher than the 33% more like 40 to 45% and ive read that in the old world that it was impossible to beat that. authors of such studys have since past away .
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07-11-2022, 11:02 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,638
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some people can selectively beat that, it is the 'every race in every track condition' that adds difficulty.
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07-11-2022, 11:19 AM
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#4
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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Quote:
it's well known that the public correctly identifies the winning horse as the fave right about 33% of the time
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38-39% now.
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07-11-2022, 11:24 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,152
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
some people can selectively beat that, it is the 'every race in every track condition' that adds difficulty.
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I agree. When you have to do 3 yo filly maiden claiming turf routes and G1 stakes and NW2Y and 5000 claimers, etc., it gets difficult to keep a high percentage. But a selective person can hit pretty high.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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07-11-2022, 11:58 AM
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#6
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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And it really isn't "the public" any longer.
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07-11-2022, 12:00 PM
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#7
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
And it really isn't "the public" any longer.
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Absolutely right.
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07-11-2022, 12:35 PM
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#8
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
____________
I'm not referring to winning or making money - obviously there are some that can do that - probably most often with the exotics
I'm referring to one specific thing
it's well known that the public correctly identifies the winning horse as the fave right about 33% of the time
do you think you could do that if you were asked to do it if you weren't able to see the actual odds and weren't even able to see the M/L odds__________?
and do you think anybody could do it______?
I tend to think that maybe nobody could do it
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nope. Probably not.
It's not fair to disallow the program or player from seeing the tote/betting market.
However, a good program or player that took up your challenge would otherwise simply mimick the actual favorite in all but a few spot-play races.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-11-2022, 01:02 PM
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#9
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,786
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
And it really isn't "the public" any longer.
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Damn good point
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WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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07-11-2022, 01:02 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
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IMO unlikely if not impossible over a large sample. There will be enough times the selection isn't quite ready for a winning effort which sometimes will be reflected in the odds.
I suspect those types of scenarios will pretty much 'cap' the selectors win rate several points below the race favorite. Even if you could out-select the general public as a group it won't be often enough to offset that subset of 'dead' picks IMO.
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07-11-2022, 01:26 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,542
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To clarify I'm assuming you mean by making a selection in every race. I do think in a subset of race types there are handicappers who are good enough to equal or better the public choice on win rate, at least by a slim margin. In theory I don't have a problem with that notion.
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07-11-2022, 01:38 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Is it really the public or a few big players or syndicates making large bets? The game has changed where it's not to beat the public any more but to beat the "smart money".
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07-11-2022, 02:23 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 88
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The public and odds
Up to 8-1 the public correctly identifies a horse's chances to win. After that they start overestimating the chances. Higher the odds more the overestimation. This was all written about Fabricand's book years ago. The title escapes me now.
__________________
By now a winner at 20-1 is better then sex.
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07-11-2022, 03:48 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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____________
for those of you who stated - correctly I believe - that it's not really the public anymore - but smart money or syndicates or whatever -
would you agree that in the Triple Crown races and probably even the undercards of those races that it is mainly public money____?
the gigantic pools - it would seem that the smart money could not just easily multiply their normal wager sizes by hundreds to have the same influence
so, my point being that a sharp individual, has a greater chance of being profitable in those races - or of being profitable by more than usual because of the large fields and the truly public money
correct or incorrect___________?
.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 07-11-2022 at 03:59 PM.
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07-11-2022, 03:53 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
nope. Probably not.
It's not fair to disallow the program or player from seeing the tote/betting market.
However, a good program or player that took up your challenge would otherwise simply mimick the actual favorite in all but a few spot-play races.
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well, that's the whole point of what I was asking
a challenge can't be unfair if it's accepted
if he uses tote info then they aren't really his selections imo - at least that is one way of looking at it - granted - using the tote and then making selections would normally be considered that capper's selections
mimicking the tote except in a few spot play races and matching or beating the % that way would not impress me
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 07-11-2022 at 03:57 PM.
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