Put some discipline in your game.

[dav4463]

We've all bet too many races, bet too many short priced horses or took too many chances on longshots looking for the "big one". If this is you; try this approach.

WIN bets only+ (rare place bet)! Commit yourself to betting to WIN.

Handicap the whole card.

Do not deviate from this plan.

Here it is:

In EACH race on today's card at ONE track--- Pick one horse that you consider playable from each of these four Morning Line Odds categories.

5/2 or less
3-1 through 9/2
5-1 through 9-1 (are there any 9-1 morning lines?)
10-1+

Sometimes a race will not have a horse in a category. So, in that case only pick if there is a qualifier. Most of the time you will have picked four horses in each race---one from each of the four odds ranges.

Now go back over the card and pick your BEST PLAY in each category and ONE WILD CARD. Look for value and stick with your plan. MAKE ONLY FIVE WIN BETS. The bet amount can vary. That's up to you.

A good way is to divide it up. If you have $100 to bet.....Bet $25 to win on each of your two strongest plays. Bet $20 to win on each of your next two strongest plays. Then put $10 to win on your wildcard pick......just an example to use as a guide.

Bet no more than two horses in any one race. You may also bet to PLACE on your selection from the 10-1+ range instead of WIN only.

That's it. FIVE bets per card. It will improve your game and force you to pass races and play your strongest choices.

The beauty of the plan is you are forced to look at horses from the higher odds ranges and find something worth playing. You still play some low odds horses but knowing you only have five bets, you are forced to concentrate on picking the best play.

[dav4463]

Best longshots I've found are horses with poor recent races that have "back speed" and "back class" going back ten races. If they've done it before; they can do it again I think!

Lone speed is always a threat at any odds.

Another good longshot is a horse that is lightly-raced vs proven losers and ready to improve despite not looking good on paper. It helps if there is a top jockey on this horse.

There are tons of ways to come up with your five plays and everybody has their own unique approach to picking winners.

I hope this method will help you avoid betting too many losers.

[dav4463]

Keep records. Find out which odds category that you excel in and pick your wild card from that odds range.

If you must play the exotics, narrow it down to ONE RACE and go crazy! Bet the exacta, trifecta, superfecta...whatever and have fun with it!

Exotics can make your month or year with one good hit! Just don't chase the big one at the expense of long term profit.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Very interesting plan in that it forces the player to explore win bets on varying potential odds categories thus avoiding the trap of looking for the most likely winner. I do feel strongly that the win bet is the staple bet as the safest wager on the menu. Win betting with the occasional win/place is the basis for profitability and the exotic wagers are the cherry on the cake, in my opinion. I have stated before on this site that i am way behind in the exotics wagering platform as it takes too many combinations to cover the contenders, though exotic wagering works well for some players,,,just not me.

[MadTiger]

Excellent thoughts. I particularly like the "odds categories" concept.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I always bet to win in any race I play. Rarely an isolated event. Usually in conjunction with exotics. If I am too insecure about exotics I will play 3 units win, 1 unit place and that is the only time I bet to place. I eliminated all odds below 3-1 as win bet candidates. In most races I usually only have 2 candidates to win. Of those I am inclined to play the highest odds horse as my top 2 choices win roughly the same %. If the odds are even I will bet the one I prefer. Doing this I have raised my average mutuel from 9.40(2001 to 2012) to 12.30 since. Turf racing has helped the cause in that span also. But revamping my exotics within the last year has opened my eyes back up. I have come home from work to see the middle of the card on and gone 4-1-1-1 playing exotics and routinely made more money than going 4-2-2-0 betting to win. Knowing a race and making bets accordingly and demanding at least a 7-1 return makes that a staple. And also makes passing races easier. There are plenty of races with chalky exactas and 3 horses in the race 3-1 or less that are pure fool's gold IMO. I just pass. The higher odds on marginal horses vs those types and heavy chalk justify the reach and corresponding bets. Lower odds win more often but IMO doesn't warrant larger bets. I look at it like baseball. You can have two .300 hitters but the SLG% on one is .350 and the other is .550. I want to be the latter. Both are still going to fail 70% of the time. Make it count when you put the fat of the bat on the ball. I still make money on win bets and it is a staple but I cash at an equal rate on exotics. Structuring plays to probable outcomes I find I am winning more significant money more often. And I'm not handicapping any differently. Bet to win, look at your probables, establish a minimum return, and make your plays.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I always bet to win in any race I play. Rarely an isolated event. Usually in conjunction with exotics. If I am too insecure about exotics I will play 3 units win, 1 unit place and that is the only time I bet to place. I eliminated all odds below 3-1 as win bet candidates. In most races I usually only have 2 candidates to win. Of those I am inclined to play the highest odds horse as my top 2 choices win roughly the same %. If the odds are even I will bet the one I prefer. Doing this I have raised my average mutuel from 9.40(2001 to 2012) to 12.30 since. Turf racing has helped the cause in that span also. But revamping my exotics within the last year has opened my eyes back up. I have come home from work to see the middle of the card on and gone 4-1-1-1 playing exotics and routinely made more money than going 4-2-2-0 betting to win. Knowing a race and making bets accordingly and demanding at least a 7-1 return makes that a staple. And also makes passing races easier. There are plenty of races with chalky exactas and 3 horses in the race 3-1 or less that are pure fool's gold IMO. I just pass. The higher odds on marginal horses vs those types and heavy chalk justify the reach and corresponding bets. Lower odds win more often but IMO doesn't warrant larger bets. I look at it like baseball. You can have two .300 hitters but the SLG% on one is .350 and the other is .550. I want to be the latter. Both are still going to fail 70% of the time. Make it count when you put the fat of the bat on the ball. I still make money on win bets and it is a staple but I cash at an equal rate on exotics. Structuring plays to probable outcomes I find I am winning more significant money more often. And I'm not handicapping any differently. Bet to win, look at your probables, establish a minimum return, and make your plays.

Good morning Cincy,

You are always up to date with your wagering stats and this has benefited your game as knowing what you are having success with through record keeping is the key to success.

[Tom]

Discipline?
I can go for WEEKS and not one playable horse at multiple tracks every day.

And do.

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by Tom

Discipline?
I can go for WEEKS and not one playable horse at multiple tracks every day.

And do.

You are one of the rare ones!

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by Tom

Discipline?
I can go for WEEKS and not one playable horse at multiple tracks every day.

And do.

Now that's real discipline Tom. But could you listen to an abusive angry pathetic liberal and not punch him in the face!!! LOL Now that's real discipline!!

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by dav4463

We've all bet too many races, bet too many short priced horses or took too many chances on longshots looking for the "big one". If this is you; try this approach.

WIN bets only+ (rare place bet)! Commit yourself to betting to WIN.

Handicap the whole card.

Do not deviate from this plan.

Here it is:

In EACH race on today's card at ONE track--- Pick one horse that you consider playable from each of these four Morning Line Odds categories.

5/2 or less
3-1 through 9/2
5-1 through 9-1 (are there any 9-1 morning lines?)
10-1+

Sometimes a race will not have a horse in a category. So, in that case only pick if there is a qualifier. Most of the time you will have picked four horses in each race---one from each of the four odds ranges.

Now go back over the card and pick your BEST PLAY in each category and ONE WILD CARD. Look for value and stick with your plan. MAKE ONLY FIVE WIN BETS. The bet amount can vary. That's up to you.

A good way is to divide it up. If you have $100 to bet.....Bet $25 to win on each of your two strongest plays. Bet $20 to win on each of your next two strongest plays. Then put $10 to win on your wildcard pick......just an example to use as a guide.

Bet no more than two horses in any one race. You may also bet to PLACE on your selection from the 10-1+ range instead of WIN only.

That's it. FIVE bets per card. It will improve your game and force you to pass races and play your strongest choices.

The beauty of the plan is you are forced to look at horses from the higher odds ranges and find something worth playing. You still play some low odds horses but knowing you only have five bets, you are forced to concentrate on picking the best play.

I don't know if you bet or not, but if you do, don't you want people to be less disciplined?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by dav4463

There are tons of ways to come up with your five plays and everybody has their own unique approach to picking winners.

I hope this method will help you avoid betting too many losers.

I personally don’t do any handicapping any longer and haven’t done so for many years. I came to the conclusion that no matter how good my handicapping abilities were, that very often I was coming up with the same selections that others were. Later only to find that these entries either won at short prices or discovered that they were never intentionally pointed toward winning efforts to begin with.

I support the idea of being selective when it comes to playing the races, but only in terms of identifying those races that offer reasonable value. However, I completely disagree with the concept of “Picking Winners”. I believe this game is ALL about making Winning Plays. So, from that perspective I consider the betting side of the game to be the more significant aspect of playing successfully.

My discipline is derived from the realization that I’m an Outsider playing an Insider’s game. My only interest is finding those contenders in a race (no matter what their odds) that I believe will actually be trying to win. Unfortunately the everyday written data found in the past performances just won’t provide that type of information.

[GMB@BP]

I have been doing this so long I feel no compunction to bet for any action, its strictly a mathematical proposition. Do I like a horse and does it make math sense for me to bet it.

I can easily go days and weeks with out placing a bet if I am just looking at say socal (30ish races a week).

I have migrated to contests, the action is forced and there is a play every race and I am not tied to value, a certain extent.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Now that's real discipline Tom. But could you listen to an abusive angry pathetic liberal and not punch him in the face!!! LOL Now that's real discipline!!

Playing from home and not going to the track takes care of BOTH problems!

I got up early one morning and caught an exacta in my pajamas.
How it got in my pajamas I'll never know!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Good morning Cincy,

You are always up to date with your wagering stats and this has benefited your game as knowing what you are having success with through record keeping is the key to success.

Belmont we are all works in progress. And at every phase of our handicapping, judgement, and betting ability. I am purely humble at the foot of this game. I love it. Am dedicated to it. New revelations come and go but I am really starting to add meat and potatoes to the everyday. That sure as hell didn't happen over night! And players including yourself on here got me to this point. Good handicapping, good people, experience, some much needed luck=we'll get there!