Super Bowl thread

[Valuist]

YTD: 54-38-1

Carolina -4

IMO, Carolina is bettable up to -5 1/2. At minus 6, I would pass. Denver's D is very good but only slightly better than Carolina. Carolina actually has better pass D (73.5 QB rating against is best in NFL; Denver at 78.8 is 4th). Denver slightly better against the run. But offensively, Carolina has strong edges in rush yards/game and QB rating. But the biggest edge of all is in yards/point; a stat I like because it takes into account the empty yards of special teams and penalties.

Carolina 1st offensively in yards/point; 8th defensively in yards/point against
Denver 20th offensively in yards/point; 15th defensively in yards/point against

Panthers also has strong edges in kickoff returns (5th) while Denver is 27th. In penalty yardage, Carolina is 10th in least penalty yardage while Denver is 24th.

IMO, Carolina had a tougher road, beating Arizona and Seattle, while Denver beat a Steeler team hurt by injuries, and a New England team with numerous players less than 100%. Carolina's first half vs Seattle was arguably the best half of football by any team this year. I'm not going to complicate things. Sometimes its ok to take the chalk.

[Stillriledup]

I like the writeup, good stuff.

Keep in mind that Denver is going to hear for 2 weeks solid that they have no chance. Carolina is going to hear for 2 weeks that they have the game in the bag.

If I had to make a pick its hard to go against Carolina, but I would like them more if people were saying the game could go either way, I hate to be on everyone else's sure thing.

There's going to be a long return or two in this game for Carolina, I was concerned that Denver's kick coverage gave up a long return.

If this game was in NE, the Pats would have won, but I can't say the same for Az, they weren't winning that game no matter what, so the lack of a true home field will hurt Denver more than Car.

I can't imagine that anyone who bet on Denver 2 years ago is laying one red cent on them now.

Denver's D is better than 2 years ago? Any thought on how the Bronco team from 2 years ago compares to the team now?

[pandy]

As Valuist points out, it does seem clear that Carolina beat the tougher teams to get to this point, and for 6 quarters they destroyed those teams (Seattle and Arizona).

I just bet the Panthers at bookmaker, -4.....5dimes had it at -4.5.

[MutuelClerk]

Not that the NFL would ever be fixed BUT..... With all the troubles they've had off the field lately from concussion lawsuits to the way players act I think if they were rooting for a team it would be the Panthers. Cam exudes excitement not to mention all the talent that comes along with him. The comments Randle El made the other day. Calvin Johnson possibly retiring early. The NFL is worried about parents letting kids play their game. Cam is the new face of football and the NFL will push his brand. Peyton is a first ballot HOF'er no question. This game is the new against the old and the NFL wants to market to kids. Keep them interested in the game. I doubt the Panthers will need help, but just in case they do.

[PhantomOnTour]

The #1 ranked defense in the league has made 11 Super Bowls...they have a record of 9-2.
Denver has the #1 D in the league - I wouldn't write them off so easily.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The #1 ranked defense in the league has made 11 Super Bowls...they have a record of 9-2.
Denver has the #1 D in the league - I wouldn't write them off so easily.

Do they? Maybe, but only slightly. I think one can make a case Carolina's defense is as good as Denver's:

Points Allowed: Denver 4th Carolina 6th
Rush yards/game: Carolina 3rd Denver 4th
QB rating against: Carolina 1st Denver 4th
Turnovers forced: Carolina 1st Denver 8th
Sacks: Denver 1st Carolina 3rd
Yards per point against: Carolina 8th Denver 13th
QBs: faced: Carolina: Rodgers, Wilson twice, Brees twice, Romo (until they knocked him out), Cousins, Ryan twice and Palmer
Denver: Brady twice, Roethlisberger twice, Rodgers, Luck, Rivers twice, Flacco & Carr twice

[Robert Fischer]

Carolina has a high level of variance in my opinion.


SUPERCAM + TurnoverDifferential = $$$

regularCam + no key turnovers = blah

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by pandy

As Valuist points out, it does seem clear that Carolina beat the tougher teams to get to this point, and for 6 quarters they destroyed those teams (Seattle and Arizona).

I just bet the Panthers at bookmaker, -4.....5dimes had it at -4.5.

When a team plays well above average against very good teams two games in a row, I start to think it's not going to happen a third time.I think CAR will win but as Valuist said, don't bet the Pants if the # keeps going up.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by pandy

As Valuist points out, it does seem clear that Carolina beat the tougher teams to get to this point, and for 6 quarters they destroyed those teams (Seattle and Arizona).

I just bet the Panthers at bookmaker, -4.....5dimes had it at -4.5.

Good move.The line can only go up

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Good move.The line can only go up

I feel the same way, line may go up, but it won't come down.

[_______]

I know the positions importance is overrated by most but even conceding that I doubt anyone would question that QB is the single most important position for any team.

Here you have a mobile QB who can throw deep playing an immobile QB who cannot. Anyone building a case for Denver winning has to start there and manage to construct something strong enough to overcome that serious deficit.

Both defenses are very good but Carolina will have a much easier job given Manning's limitations. Denver will need to put more than 20 points on the board to make the game close and I'm not sure they will.

[delayjf]

I agree, Manning will need his A-Game for Denver to win. It will be imperative that Denver be able to move the ball and avoid those three and outs that puts so much pressure on the defense. He also needs to quit taking 20 yard sacks. He's got two weeks to heal up and rest his body. I hope for Denver's sake it will be enough.

[thaskalos]

There is an old saying that says, "God looks out for the bookmakers".

For their sake...I hope this is true.

[DRIVEWAY]

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/stor...owl-50-preview

Spread of only 1.8 favoring Carolina

[NJ Stinks]

While I'm definitely not going to endorse a 39 year old QB's team in the Super Bowl - I'm not going to jump on the Carolina bandwagon either.

This far out I'm thinking Manning and the Bronco D will keep this game under. Peyton is not going to hand the ball to the Panthers on a silver platter in the first half like Palmer and Wilson did. In fact, I think it's likely that the Bronco game plan will be protect the ball on offense and and win the game with their defense.

Will it work? I don't know but I do know Denver has been in a lot of close/under games and have done well in those games.

As for Carolina, I'm not sold on them being a superior road team. Nor am I convinced that their offense will respond well when Denver's D makes them wish they were still playing against Arizona's D. But I do believe the Panthers D is quite capable of shutting down the Broncos' offense.

Anyway, one thing about playing the o/u in the Super Bowl, the total usually goes up as game time approaches. I hope that proves to be the case this year.