Breaking Ties

[PICSIX]

Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).

Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.

Has anyone else looked at this?

In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.

[ultracapper]

All things being equal, the shortest way around the track is the rail.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).

Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.

Has anyone else looked at this?

In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.

Maybe include post position in your method?

[cato]

But then he has to come up with another tie breaker!

By the way it seems that this rail theory would, uh, vary based on track, distance, surface and condition, eh?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).

Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.

Has anyone else looked at this?

In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.

Works with the greyhounds, but the horses?....I don't know.

[DRIVEWAY]

How does the Juicy Method work?

[NY BRED]

[QUOTE=ultracapper]All things being equal, the shortest way around the track is the rail

Except for First timers as the heavy fav, with trainers not ranked in the top five at the specific track.

even if the trainer is high percentage, other factors involve breeding,
track condition/bias

[mikesal57]

Try using this for future bets....

2 inside post positions by track

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
           WHERE RAILPOSITION <= 2 
           AND [DATE] >= #12-01-2015#


     Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals    11357.80      11116.70      11465.10
     Bet             -15612.00     -15612.00     -15612.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L              -4254.20      -4495.30      -4146.90

     Wins                  923          1860          2767
     Plays                7806          7806          7806
     PCT                 .1182         .2383         .3545

     ROI                0.7275        0.7121        0.7344
     Avg Mut             12.31          5.98          4.14


     ****************************************************************************************
     BY TRACK sorted by Track Code                           Run Date: 1/22/2016 9:59:09 AM
     ****************************************************************************************
                                            WIN  WIN          WIN               PLACE   PLACE
     TRACK            PLAYS    WINS         PCT  IMPACT       ROI  PLACES         PCT     ROI
     ****************************************************************************************
     AQU                 532     84      0.1579  1.3354    0.9617    146       0.2744  0.7568  
     CTX                 280     28      0.1     0.8457    0.8493    60        0.2143  0.6618  
     DED                 576     62      0.1076  0.91      0.6915    131       0.2274  0.747   
     FGX                 562     88      0.1566  1.3244    0.9881    154       0.274   0.7438  
     FLX                 126     16      0.127   1.0741    0.3294    37        0.2937  0.7567  
     GGX                 382     42      0.1099  0.9294    0.578     92        0.2408  0.7293  
     GPX                 648     82      0.1265  1.0698    0.7866    152       0.2346  0.8015  
     HAW                 278     39      0.1403  1.1865    0.9906    76        0.2734  0.7887  
     HOU                 78      7       0.0897  0.7586    0.7628    17        0.2179  1.0013  
     LAX                 108     19      0.1759  1.4876    0.6157    40        0.3704  0.7394  
     LRC                 204     22      0.1078  0.9117    0.525     58        0.2843  0.7426  
     LRL                 436     49      0.1124  0.9506    0.6296    109       0.25    0.7141  
     MVR                 502     54      0.1076  0.91      0.7206    103       0.2052  0.6137  
     OPX                 72      9       0.125   1.0572    1.2764    19        0.2639  0.9653  
     PEN                 344     34      0.0988  0.8356    0.5872    67        0.1948  0.6164  
     PHA                 238     32      0.1345  1.1375    1.1534    58        0.2437  0.8559  
     PMX                 238     34      0.1429  1.2085    0.6189    65        0.2731  0.7061  
     RPX                 130     13      0.1     0.8457    0.58      31        0.2385  0.7469  
     SAX                 276     33      0.1196  1.0115    0.9293    63        0.2283  0.7627  
     SUN                 228     13      0.057   0.4821    0.314     42        0.1842  0.5024  
     TAM                 502     44      0.0876  0.7409    0.6014    112       0.2231  0.6681  
     TPX                 468     45      0.0962  0.8136    0.5658    83        0.1774  0.6016  
     TUP                 494     63      0.1275  1.0783    0.6694    123       0.249   0.6772  
     ZIA                 104     11      0.1058  0.8948    0.4087    22        0.2115  0.5163  
     ****************************************************************************************
     24 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
     ****************************************************************************************

[Overlay]

I use impact values in my handicapping, which results in the final "figure" for each horse (on which I base the horse's fair odds) being expressed to at least two decimal places. Coupled with the fact that I evaluate each horse on multiple factors, I very seldom (if ever) have two horses end up with the exact same figure. This not only makes it easy to rank them, but also allows me to tell exactly why and how much I prefer one horse over another. (Plus, of course, consideration of whether (and also by how much) each horse is an overlay or not according to my odds line will also come into play.)

[raybo]

I use post position for final tie breakers for all rankings methods in my program. Seems to work fine.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).

Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.

Has anyone else looked at this?

In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.

Are the results similar for sprints and routes? Is there are correlation between running style and post for your contenders? I would think a plodder on the rail would be at a much greater disadvantage than a speed horse from the outside in a sprint, whereas in a route it might be the opposite. In fact a horse with good tactical speed should be able to establish position from any post in a sprint. Just wondering if the correlation can be refined.

[Capper Al]

I use many different tie breakers. For speed figs I use class. For class figs I use speed. For trainer I use jockey. For jockey I use trainer. For final score I use MLand BRIS prime.

[therussmeister]

I draw a name out of a hat*. If you have a handicapping factor that reliably works as a tie breaker it is because you are not giving it enough weight in your original handicapping, and you should adjust your algorithm.

* Actually I don't do this because I play exotics and can cover both horses.

[PICSIX]

Thanks for the replies......for now, I will keep my methods the same and continue to play/monitor this tie-breaker. Thinking on how to adjust/weight for post position.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

Thanks for the replies......for now, I will keep my methods the same and continue to play/monitor this tie-breaker. Thinking on how to adjust/weight for post position.

The problem with weighting by post position is that the break, and the frequent mad scramble after the break, is involved. Trying to universally weight by post position is one of those things where you will probably be wrong as much, or more, than you are right about the break and the ensuing scramble for position. So, weighting the inside post higher than the 2nd and wider posts assumes that the inside posts will break well, and that can never be predicted.

So, my opinion is that all your other factors should be analyzed first, and the post position should only be used as a tie breaker, not a weighted part of your analysis. Of course, I focus on the long term, not on individual race results, which means that some individual races may turn out the other way, with the post position being more significant.