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01-21-2016, 06:56 AM
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#1
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Mike Schultz
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,234
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Breaking Ties
Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).
Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.
Has anyone else looked at this?
In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.
__________________
I attract money, I attract money...
Last edited by PICSIX; 01-21-2016 at 06:58 AM.
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01-21-2016, 11:00 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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All things being equal, the shortest way around the track is the rail.
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01-21-2016, 11:01 AM
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#3
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,826
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PICSIX
Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).
Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.
Has anyone else looked at this?
In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.
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Maybe include post position in your method?
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01-21-2016, 03:33 PM
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#4
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Irrationally exuberant
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 740
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But then he has to come up with another tie breaker!
By the way it seems that this rail theory would, uh, vary based on track, distance, surface and condition, eh?
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01-21-2016, 04:38 PM
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#5
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PICSIX
Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).
Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.
Has anyone else looked at this?
In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.
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Works with the greyhounds, but the horses?....I don't know.
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01-21-2016, 04:41 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,000
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How does the Juicy Method work?
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01-22-2016, 07:43 AM
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#7
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GARY
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,339
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Breaking ties
[QUOTE=ultracapper]All things being equal, the shortest way around the track is the rail
Except for First timers as the heavy fav, with trainers not ranked in the top five at the specific track.
even if the trainer is high percentage, other factors involve breeding,
track condition/bias
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01-22-2016, 10:01 AM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Try using this for future bets....
2 inside post positions by track
Code:
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RAILPOSITION <= 2
AND [DATE] >= #12-01-2015#
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 11357.80 11116.70 11465.10
Bet -15612.00 -15612.00 -15612.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -4254.20 -4495.30 -4146.90
Wins 923 1860 2767
Plays 7806 7806 7806
PCT .1182 .2383 .3545
ROI 0.7275 0.7121 0.7344
Avg Mut 12.31 5.98 4.14
****************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code Run Date: 1/22/2016 9:59:09 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
AQU 532 84 0.1579 1.3354 0.9617 146 0.2744 0.7568
CTX 280 28 0.1 0.8457 0.8493 60 0.2143 0.6618
DED 576 62 0.1076 0.91 0.6915 131 0.2274 0.747
FGX 562 88 0.1566 1.3244 0.9881 154 0.274 0.7438
FLX 126 16 0.127 1.0741 0.3294 37 0.2937 0.7567
GGX 382 42 0.1099 0.9294 0.578 92 0.2408 0.7293
GPX 648 82 0.1265 1.0698 0.7866 152 0.2346 0.8015
HAW 278 39 0.1403 1.1865 0.9906 76 0.2734 0.7887
HOU 78 7 0.0897 0.7586 0.7628 17 0.2179 1.0013
LAX 108 19 0.1759 1.4876 0.6157 40 0.3704 0.7394
LRC 204 22 0.1078 0.9117 0.525 58 0.2843 0.7426
LRL 436 49 0.1124 0.9506 0.6296 109 0.25 0.7141
MVR 502 54 0.1076 0.91 0.7206 103 0.2052 0.6137
OPX 72 9 0.125 1.0572 1.2764 19 0.2639 0.9653
PEN 344 34 0.0988 0.8356 0.5872 67 0.1948 0.6164
PHA 238 32 0.1345 1.1375 1.1534 58 0.2437 0.8559
PMX 238 34 0.1429 1.2085 0.6189 65 0.2731 0.7061
RPX 130 13 0.1 0.8457 0.58 31 0.2385 0.7469
SAX 276 33 0.1196 1.0115 0.9293 63 0.2283 0.7627
SUN 228 13 0.057 0.4821 0.314 42 0.1842 0.5024
TAM 502 44 0.0876 0.7409 0.6014 112 0.2231 0.6681
TPX 468 45 0.0962 0.8136 0.5658 83 0.1774 0.6016
TUP 494 63 0.1275 1.0783 0.6694 123 0.249 0.6772
ZIA 104 11 0.1058 0.8948 0.4087 22 0.2115 0.5163
****************************************************************************************
24 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
****************************************************************************************
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01-22-2016, 12:35 PM
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#9
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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I use impact values in my handicapping, which results in the final "figure" for each horse (on which I base the horse's fair odds) being expressed to at least two decimal places. Coupled with the fact that I evaluate each horse on multiple factors, I very seldom (if ever) have two horses end up with the exact same figure. This not only makes it easy to rank them, but also allows me to tell exactly why and how much I prefer one horse over another. (Plus, of course, consideration of whether (and also by how much) each horse is an overlay or not according to my odds line will also come into play.)
Last edited by Overlay; 01-22-2016 at 12:50 PM.
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01-22-2016, 01:01 PM
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#10
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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I use post position for final tie breakers for all rankings methods in my program. Seems to work fine.
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01-22-2016, 02:59 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PICSIX
Let's say I have 3 or 4 horses ranked on top that are equally rated by my methods; unless one or two of them are juicy overlays I normally pass the race. However, I'm amazed, when checking results, at how many winners I would of had if I had just used the horse who is closest to the rail (post position).
Assuming there are no coupled entries and I have 2-4-6-8 ranked equally then the 2 would win the Tie-breaker.
Has anyone else looked at this?
In tournament play, for example, I'm forced to play these type of races and will use this Tie-breaker moving forward.
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Are the results similar for sprints and routes? Is there are correlation between running style and post for your contenders? I would think a plodder on the rail would be at a much greater disadvantage than a speed horse from the outside in a sprint, whereas in a route it might be the opposite. In fact a horse with good tactical speed should be able to establish position from any post in a sprint. Just wondering if the correlation can be refined.
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01-22-2016, 07:13 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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I use many different tie breakers. For speed figs I use class. For class figs I use speed. For trainer I use jockey. For jockey I use trainer. For final score I use MLand BRIS prime.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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01-22-2016, 07:49 PM
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#13
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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I draw a name out of a hat*. If you have a handicapping factor that reliably works as a tie breaker it is because you are not giving it enough weight in your original handicapping, and you should adjust your algorithm.
* Actually I don't do this because I play exotics and can cover both horses.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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01-23-2016, 07:26 AM
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#14
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Mike Schultz
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 2,234
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Thanks for the replies......for now, I will keep my methods the same and continue to play/monitor this tie-breaker. Thinking on how to adjust/weight for post position.
__________________
I attract money, I attract money...
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01-23-2016, 02:26 PM
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#15
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PICSIX
Thanks for the replies......for now, I will keep my methods the same and continue to play/monitor this tie-breaker. Thinking on how to adjust/weight for post position.
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The problem with weighting by post position is that the break, and the frequent mad scramble after the break, is involved. Trying to universally weight by post position is one of those things where you will probably be wrong as much, or more, than you are right about the break and the ensuing scramble for position. So, weighting the inside post higher than the 2nd and wider posts assumes that the inside posts will break well, and that can never be predicted.
So, my opinion is that all your other factors should be analyzed first, and the post position should only be used as a tie breaker, not a weighted part of your analysis. Of course, I focus on the long term, not on individual race results, which means that some individual races may turn out the other way, with the post position being more significant.
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