Santa Anita Morning Line

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

A horse with a blue tail, by any chance?

lol--that was actually one of my favorite derbies...recruiting Hansen to run here was gratifying, but outing him on the show as an underlay who didn't fit my profile of past winners makes that day a special memory....but you're right , my morning line for that race is something i'd rather forget.....

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by mountainman

On a closing note, while I'm not an apologist for Jon White, nor particularly a fan of his commentary, I do think setting track odds is a thankless and more difficult task than even exceptional handicappers realize. You're only noticed when you error, and we all error, sometimes badly.

Mark - I think you're combining getting morning lines incorrectly on occasion (very acceptable) vs consistently building a morning line that doesn't balance and is based on the ML makers handicapping, not the public betting. To me, I could care less if a ML guy makes a horse 5-1 and it goes off at 9-1, 10-1 or 3-1. As long as it doesn't happen all the time, we would forgive that.

By the way, if you listen to Racedaylasvegas, Ralph Siraco said the Sam Houston ML maker should be canned...and he is right. There isn't a seasoned player that would make even one mistake like he did last night, much less in so many of those races last night. I'd love to hear his rationale for making certain horses what he did. Problem is, like everything in this industry, no accountability.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valento

Mark - I think you're combining getting morning lines incorrectly on occasion (very acceptable) vs consistently building a morning line that doesn't balance and is based on the ML makers handicapping, not the public betting. To me, I could care less if a ML guy makes a horse 5-1 and it goes off at 9-1, 10-1 or 3-1. As long as it doesn't happen all the time, we would forgive that.

By the way, if you listen to Racedaylasvegas, Ralph Siraco said the Sam Houston ML maker should be canned...and he is right. There isn't a seasoned player that would make even one mistake like he did last night, much less in so many of those races last night. I'd love to hear his rationale for making certain horses what he did. Problem is, like everything in this industry, no accountability.

The Sam Houston ML from last night is a case of not even caring. Its far beyond "making a mistake" its just indifference and borderline fraud.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

The Sam Houston ML from last night is a case of not even caring. Its far beyond "making a mistake" its just indifference and borderline fraud.

I've never seen worse.
Obvious odds-on choices with 5, or 6-1, quotes.
Total fiction.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I've never seen worse.
Obvious odds-on choices with 5, or 6-1, quotes.
Total fiction.

And 3-1 shots with no chance. There were at least 3 horses that were 3-1 ML that went off 10-1 or higher.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Valento

Mark - I think you're combining getting morning lines incorrectly on occasion (very acceptable) vs consistently building a morning line that doesn't balance and is based on the ML makers handicapping, not the public betting. To me, I could care less if a ML guy makes a horse 5-1 and it goes off at 9-1, 10-1 or 3-1. As long as it doesn't happen all the time, we would forgive that.

By the way, if you listen to Racedaylasvegas, Ralph Siraco said the Sam Houston ML maker should be canned...and he is right. There isn't a seasoned player that would make even one mistake like he did last night, much less in so many of those races last night. I'd love to hear his rationale for making certain horses what he did. Problem is, like everything in this industry, no accountability.

yeah...I get what you're saying, pal....and i'm certainly not vouching for the guy..nor trying to hijack your thread...I just like to discuss the process and finer points of making a line....and as far as i'm concerned, you deserve a good job in the industry...so I get your frustration here...

[zico20]

Originally Posted by mountainman

It's extremely hard to make the numbers fit when you make a horse1/9. Believe me. And if you do that and miss, it's a HUGE miss. I've done the line on about 50,000 races ranging from nickel claimers to 750k stakes, and was rated 12th most accurate in America by a study once posted here. My hunch is that last year I ranked higher. In addition, the accuracy of my work was noted in a recent edition of hana's handicapping magazine.

That said, you seem like a really sharp guy, and I'm sure you would make an excellent linesmaker. But believe me, on occasion you would shoot an air ball-just like the rest of us. With all respect sir, detached theorizing is very different from actually putting the numbers together-and putting them out there in front of the public on a daily basis. Incidentally, boosting handle is beyond the abilities of any linesmaker and would never cross my mind. And I've never heard from management in about 25 years of doing mnr's line.

Where are you from, pal? And what's your line of work?

I live in st. Louis and I do outside sales. I can't sit behind a desk for 8 hours. I would go crazy.

I understand your point, however, if you miss the other way, that is just as bad. A 4-1 ML favorite going off 1-5 destroys the odds on all others. Then your 8-1 shot is 25-1 or higher. That is not good also. My biggest concern is this. In a 10 horse field the ML should be accurate on the first 2 or 3 favorites and the 2 or 3 long shots. The horses in the middle I don't give a damn about. The 4 horses listed between 8 and 15 to 1 can be in any order. That is a crap shoot IMO. Yesterday at GP in the 4th race Overcontrol was 9-5 on the ML and went off even money. That should have been an easy one to make as the heavy favorite. 9-5 was a fantasy on a Pletcher/Velazquez horse.

Mark, and I mean this in all sincerity, you are by far my favorite handicapper to listen to before a race. There are a couple, who shall remain nameless, if they were to post here, I would call them out on numerous things I don't like. Have you ever been offered a job at TVG or HRTV. They could use a pro like yourself. I will be watching the ML a little closer this year at Mountaineer. I honestly didn't know you did it.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by mountainman

yeah...I get what you're saying, pal....and i'm certainly not vouching for the guy..nor trying to hijack your thread...I just like to discuss the process and finer points of making a line....and as far as i'm concerned, you deserve a good job in the industry...so I get your frustration here...

Mark - thanks for saying that but let me clarify something. I am not clamoring for anyone's job. I have a job outside the industry and am not at all looking to change that.

I felt the need to clarify that in case anyone thought I had selfish reasons for posting in this thread. Couldn't be farther from the truth.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by zico20

I live in st. Louis and I do outside sales. I can't sit behind a desk for 8 hours. I would go crazy.

I understand your point, however, if you miss the other way, that is just as bad. A 4-1 ML favorite going off 1-5 destroys the odds on all others. Then your 8-1 shot is 25-1 or higher. That is not good also. My biggest concern is this. In a 10 horse field the ML should be accurate on the first 2 or 3 favorites and the 2 or 3 long shots. The horses in the middle I don't give a damn about. The 4 horses listed between 8 and 15 to 1 can be in any order. That is a crap shoot IMO. Yesterday at GP in the 4th race Overcontrol was 9-5 on the ML and went off even money. That should have been an easy one to make as the heavy favorite. 9-5 was a fantasy on a Pletcher/Velazquez horse.

Mark, and I mean this in all sincerity, you are by far my favorite handicapper to listen to before a race. There are a couple, who shall remain nameless, if they were to post here, I would call them out on numerous things I don't like. Have you ever been offered a job at TVG or HRTV. They could use a pro like yourself. I will be watching the ML a little closer this year at Mountaineer. I honestly didn't know you did it.

tx, zic...yes, I was once asked by hrtv to fill a 40 or 50 min block by remote over the phone while the regular host rushed home to fight wildfires threatening his home. they must have liked my riff, because afterwards, they asked if i would be interested in an anchor spot and even went so far as to offer to setup daycare for my son...but i love mnr, am beholden to my bosses, and declined hrtv's tentative offer...

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by zico20

.

My biggest concern is this. In a 10 horse field the ML should be accurate on the first 2 or 3 favorites and the 2 or 3 long shots. The horses in the middle I don't give a damn about. The 4 horses listed between 8 and 15 to 1 can be in any order. That is a crap shoot IMO.

Have to say I disagree here. The middle-odds horses are very often where the analysis of DD and P/3 will-pays strike paydirt with "live horses." I totally want my M/L maker to not have a cavalier attitude in grouping these guys all together with the same M/L odds or otherwise making no attempt to "rank" them. Just sayin'; different strokes and all that.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Have to say I disagree here. The middle-odds horses are very often where the analysis of DD and P/3 will-pays strike paydirt with "live horses." I totally want my M/L maker to not have a cavalier attitude in grouping these guys all together with the same M/L odds or otherwise making no attempt to "rank" them. Just sayin'; different strokes and all that.

I think what Z is saying is that its easier to make a ML on the favorite and the longest shots....so at least don't screw THAT up. Sure, in a perfect world the entire ML would be strong, but if there's a horse who is destined to be 3-5, don't make him 3-1 ML and if there's a horse who's destined to be 99-1 don't make him 12-1.

[Dark Horse]

ML's add up to 145 percent for today's Las Virgines Grade 1 Stakes. That's a little embarrassing, if you ask me.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

ML's add up to 145 percent for today's Las Virgines Grade 1 Stakes. That's a little embarrassing, if you ask me.

That's being tactful and diplomatic.
I would leave out the phrase "a little"

[cj]

This seems to be a new thing with him, no? Maybe he is doing so under orders...just a thought. I doubt he suddenly forgot how to make a morning line.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by cj

This seems to be a new thing with him, no? Maybe he is doing so under orders...just a thought. I doubt he suddenly forgot how to make a morning line.

I'm not sure that he ever knew in the first place, cj.
The math pertaining to odds percentages, that is.
This type of thing is the norm at Santa Anita.