Long shots or Favorites

[Capper Al]

I can pick favorites and I can pick long shots, but I can't tell who's most likely to win. Value odds makes it easier to pick long shots. Yet, this is no indication that the favorite is not going to win. I'm guessing that perfecting the art of the false favorite would help. My method for picking favorites and picking long shots are different. This means they are not on the same scale for comparison. Any ideas on how to handle this?

[betovernetcapper]

I think that the first step is defying a false favorite.
IMO a FF has one or more of the following characteristics

Sub par speed or pace figures in relation to the field

Has failed constantly at this class-distance-surface or track

The horse's trainer has a poor record with horses in this situation (1st race lifetime-0 for 50 off a layoff-repeaters-horses going up or down in class) whatever is appropriate to this situation

The horse is at a disadvantage to to the race shape or track bias.

The horse is only marginally superior to many others but is required to carry substantially more weight than his competitors, example FF has to carry 134 pounds and a legit contender has to only carry 118 pounds. We don't have this very much in US racing, but it's a real factor in many foreign races.

Weak jockey that has not won with this horse or for this trainer.

On a biased track, an impossible post.

In terms of breeding, a FF may be one who is trying a distance/surface for the 1st time & everything in it's family tree suggests that it can't handle it.

I'm sure there are other factors, but those are the ones off the top of my head.

[deelo]

I usually handicap the race first quickly without knowing morning lines (have it hidden in formulator) then turn em on and see if there's anything interesting...did i hate the favorite? Rank a 20/1 as a top contender? Etc.

[deelo]

Once you have your good favorite and good longshot, I'd compare the favorite's most likely performance to the longshot's top ability performance (this is the race they haven't run yet but could with past trouble removed).and see what you got.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

I think that the first step is defying a false favorite.
IMO a FF has one or more of the following characteristics

Sub par speed or pace figures in relation to the field

Has failed constantly at this class-distance-surface or track

The horse's trainer has a poor record with horses in this situation (1st race lifetime-0 for 50 off a layoff-repeaters-horses going up or down in class) whatever is appropriate to this situation

The horse is at a disadvantage to to the race shape or track bias.

The horse is only marginally superior to many others but is required to carry substantially more weight than his competitors, example FF has to carry 134 pounds and a legit contender has to only carry 118 pounds. We don't have this very much in US racing, but it's a real factor in many foreign races.

Weak jockey that has not won with this horse or for this trainer.

On a biased track, an impossible post.

In terms of breeding, a FF may be one who is trying a distance/surface for the 1st time & everything in it's family tree suggests that it can't handle it.

I'm sure there are other factors, but those are the ones off the top of my head.

All good was to find false favorites.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by deelo

I usually handicap the race first quickly without knowing morning lines (have it hidden in formulator) then turn em on and see if there's anything interesting...did i hate the favorite? Rank a 20/1 as a top contender? Etc.

Randomized approach looking for what shakes out.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by deelo

Once you have your good favorite and good longshot, I'd compare the favorite's most likely performance to the longshot's top ability performance (this is the race they haven't run yet but could with past trouble removed).and see what you got.

Comparing the average of the favorite to the best of the long shot. I'll try it.

[azeri98]

I will try to find at least 2 flaws in the favorite and then if I find those 2 I will try to find 4 horses that are "better" in my eyes and then try to dismiss 2 of those and then pick from the last 2. I also look at the toteboard and see if any horses between 15 to 1 and 5 to 1 have taken half price haircuts. If those are in my top 4 then I most likely will play those. There is a lot of inside info at the track and the board tells you a lot, early and late betting. If I think the favorite is much better I will bet it but not any lower than even money.

[burnsy]

That's why you need the ability to at least "ballpark" your own line. I don't have time to do my own line for every horse in the race either. I narrow it down to anyone I think has a shot and try to "assign" a fair price. When I see overlays that's usually the horses I like for my exactas. If I see one that I really think is under bet.....win, place. You have to have the ability to eliminate horses right off the top. Discernment: you can't like them all. As for false faves:

Horses running at a new track, surface, class or distance.

Horses that are always bet and rarely win.

Horses that are a ridiculously low price for the circumstances they are running in. Its hard to bet a 3-5 in a race full of proven losers just as it is in a big race with stiff competition. That's why I love grass and Saratoga grass, there are not many "walk overs" in those conditions.

Always remembering its a freakin horse race, anything can happen. If you constantly stick on low prices you are never going to win and when you do cash it doesn't amount to a hill of beans because no one wins all the time and chalk usually loses 2 out of 3.

ROI is way more valuable than playing it safe....its gambling.

I'm not the best handicapper, but I'm a decent gambler. I understand the ins and outs of winning at gambling. Sometimes being "street smart" and understanding numbers and odds along with human tendencies......can put you in position to make better decisions than the average Joe. The crowd is mostly "followers", most people constantly lose, don't be a follower. Develop your own skill set of strengths and use it until you abuse it. Then do it again! If you are the type person that can't take your own "personal stand"............gambling may be fun for you because you get used to losing all the time. I'm not like some of the freaks you see huddled over their lap tops, I'm loose, I have fun but I'm serious as a heart attack about winning. "Just because I have a beer in my hand does not mean I don't know what I'm doing." You can have fun and do well if you develop your own thing. Am I rich from betting? No, but I've never borrowed a dime to gamble either and I have had years where I actually win at gambling.

[ultracapper]

Next race after a big cheap maiden win.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I will try to find at least 2 flaws in the favorite and then if I find those 2 I will try to find 4 horses that are "better" in my eyes and then try to dismiss 2 of those and then pick from the last 2. I also look at the toteboard and see if any horses between 15 to 1 and 5 to 1 have taken half price haircuts. If those are in my top 4 then I most likely will play those. There is a lot of inside info at the track and the board tells you a lot, early and late betting. If I think the favorite is much better I will bet it but not any lower than even money.

I will do this by default when my elimination module is up and running again.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by burnsy

That's why you need the ability to at least "ballpark" your own line. I don't have time to do my own line for every horse in the race either. I narrow it down to anyone I think has a shot and try to "assign" a fair price. When I see overlays that's usually the horses I like for my exactas. If I see one that I really think is under bet.....win, place. You have to have the ability to eliminate horses right off the top. Discernment: you can't like them all. As for false faves:

Horses running at a new track, surface, class or distance.

Horses that are always bet and rarely win.

Horses that are a ridiculously low price for the circumstances they are running in. Its hard to bet a 3-5 in a race full of proven losers just as it is in a big race with stiff competition. That's why I love grass and Saratoga grass, there are not many "walk overs" in those conditions.

Always remembering its a freakin horse race, anything can happen. If you constantly stick on low prices you are never going to win and when you do cash it doesn't amount to a hill of beans because no one wins all the time and chalk usually loses 2 out of 3.

ROI is way more valuable than playing it safe....its gambling.

I'm not the best handicapper, but I'm a decent gambler. I understand the ins and outs of winning at gambling. Sometimes being "street smart" and understanding numbers and odds along with human tendencies......can put you in position to make better decisions than the average Joe. The crowd is mostly "followers", most people constantly lose, don't be a follower. Develop your own skill set of strengths and use it until you abuse it. Then do it again! If you are the type person that can't take your own "personal stand"............gambling may be fun for you because you get used to losing all the time. I'm not like some of the freaks you see huddled over their lap tops, I'm loose, I have fun but I'm serious as a heart attack about winning. "Just because I have a beer in my hand does not mean I don't know what I'm doing." You can have fun and do well if you develop your own thing. Am I rich from betting? No, but I've never borrowed a dime to gamble either and I have had years where I actually win at gambling.

My favorites and my long shots are weighed against a different formula. There is no way to create a comprehensive odds line for comparison.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Next race after a big cheap maiden win.

Does what? I quit playing doubles because of back wheelers lowering the payouts. I'd hit a shot in the maiden race and the following race's favorite would hit with prices about the same as the win ticket on the long shot maiden.

[ultracapper]

I mean the maiden winner's next race.

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I can pick favorites and I can pick long shots, but I can't tell who's most likely to win. Value odds makes it easier to pick long shots. Yet, this is no indication that the favorite is not going to win. I'm guessing that perfecting the art of the false favorite would help. My method for picking favorites and picking long shots are different. This means they are not on the same scale for comparison. Any ideas on how to handle this?

Ideally, if you have a full-field fair-odds line, you should know both how much and why you like each of the horses in the race, and at what odds they become favorable (overlaid) or unfavorable (underlaid) betting propositions (regardless of whether you rate them as the one most likely winner of the race or not).

Also, if the favorite is underlaid, one or more of the other horses in the race must be overlaid. That doesn't mean that you necessarily have to bet against the favorite (depending on your tolerance for risk). You can always pass the race and wait for a situation where the horse that you feel is the best is at odds that are higher than they should be (whether the horse is the favorite or not), and you can account either for the reason why the horse is not being bet, or for the false reasons why the other horses are being bet, or both (provided you're not of the conspiratorial mindset that, just by virtue of the fact that the horse is an overlay, it means that "they" know or have decreed that the horse will not win today).