Gobble gobble nom nom whales

[Pensacola Pete]

I just finished a 30 day study of late money moves over 20 tracks. Here are my conclusions:

1) The whales are greedy little sots who never stop being hungry.

2) This behavior happens in every visual pool for every race at every race track in North America that allows online wagering. It may also happen in the unseen pools (i.e. 3+ vertical and horizontals), but it's difficult to verify.

3) There IS a pattern to it. It can actually be predicted.

Using HTR, Excel (and Access to research it), I came up with a formula that takes various factors into account. It zeroes in on on the horse(s) that are going to get crushed in the pool, with about 85% accuracy --- this before the pools even open.

The problem with exploiting this is that even knowing who is being slammed, the ROI is still in the 0.91 range. I guess the big players get fantastic rebates. That or they're stepping on each others' feet, and they all aren't making money.

Of course, when one gets a horse that the greed mongers ARE'NT going to bet, "there's gold in them their hills" in the form of better prices.

Now I need to test it forwardly for another 30 days to be sure the accuracy stays the same.

[Tom]

Can't blame the whales - when the game gives them a decided edge, they would be fools to not to capitalize.

Best advise is find other venues of entertainment.
You would be surprised how much you won't miss racing after a very short time.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

I just finished a 30 day study of late money moves over 20 tracks. Here are my conclusions:

1) The whales are greedy little sots who never stop being hungry.

2) This behavior happens in every visual pool for every race at every race track in North America that allows online wagering. It may also happen in the unseen pools (i.e. 3+ vertical and horizontals), but it's difficult to verify.

3) There IS a pattern to it. It can actually be predicted.

Using HTR, Excel (and Access to research it), I came up with a formula that takes various factors into account. It zeroes in on on the horse(s) that are going to get crushed in the pool, with about 85% accuracy --- this before the pools even open.

The problem with exploiting this is that even knowing who is being slammed, the ROI is still in the 0.91 range. I guess the big players get fantastic rebates. That or they're stepping on each others' feet, and they all aren't making money.

Of course, when one gets a horse that the greed mongers ARE'NT going to bet, "there's gold in them their hills" in the form of better prices.

Now I need to test it forwardly for another 30 days to be sure the accuracy stays the same.

Big rebates are in the .08 to .12 on the dollar range.

Willing to share horses and/or factors ahead of time in this thread?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Tom

Can't blame the whales - when the game gives them a decided edge, they would be fools to not to capitalize.

Best advise is find other venues of entertainment.
You would be surprised how much you won't miss racing after a very short time.

Agree.

Until EVERYONE in the pools shares the same risk the game will be effed up IMO.

[Fox]

For the sake of your study, I hope your observations were more accurate than they were for the 5th race at Woodbine on May 11th.

[PaceMasterT]

[davew]

how can you tell the money is from whales and not just hundreds of $2 bettors?

[JeremyJet]

Wherever the money is coming from, as the last horse is about to load, it seems like they're focused on horses that would normally be heavy chalk regardless. It's like they're exploiting the favorite/longshot bias to a new level due to the rebates.

All I know is this: EVERYONE needs to know the odds. Not just a select few.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

Wherever the money is coming from, as the last horse is about to load, it seems like they're focused on horses that would normally be heavy chalk regardless. It's like they're exploiting the favorite/longshot bias to a new level due to the rebates.

All I know is this: EVERYONE needs to know the odds. Not just a select few.

Looks like it just happened in the 3rd at Churchill. Half the win pool came in just before the gates opened. The 9 horse was pounded down to 3/5. That's way overbet based on the will-pays for that race.

The 9 horse lost, btw. They don't always cash.