Just me or does fairgrounds have a lot of last minute "heavy win betting" lately?

[kyle2227]

I've noticed a lot lately that around 1 ish minutes or closer to post horses get bet down heavy late. I've seen a lot of horses be the favorite for much of the post time then all of a sudden at a minute or so to post the second or third choice gets hammered down to the favorite. One example was the first race today. The one horse Rogue Scholar was my second handicapped pick in the race but because he was 5/2 I bet him to win. At about two minutes to post or maybe it was a tad sooner he want down to even money and then when they were out of the gate the racing channel showed him at about 4-5! He ended up paying 4.40 to win. Lately it seems like horses are getting bet late a lot at Fairgrounds. Any one else notice this?

[Robert Fischer]

Yes, I have noticed it. It is funny, because I was talking racing with the old man, and brought up the Risen Star, and he says "you know Fair Grounds is a track you have to watch because they will bet a ton late on a horse, and that horse always seems to win..."

Now, I don't necessarily agree with "always seems to win", but it was interesting to hear someone else who noticed it. Often times the money is so late, it doesn't show up in the pools until after "off". Impossible to really react to it in some situations, even if you wanted to.

There are different types of late money. I don't mind so much when the pool is relatively small and the favorite gets a bunch of late action. Other times the market distribution will change, and that is what is most difficult for me to deal with. I will cut-and-paste a specific example in a minute.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by robert fischer

"1/14/2008 .. JR Cruiser 2nd/3rd betting choice with disproportionate late money.

Watching the pools JRC fluctuated between 2nd and 3rd public choice. The favorite was ahead the whole time in the pools. The other 2nd choice was a Asmussen/Bridgmohan horse who was more attractive to the public.

After OFF the pools flashed and JRC had recieved a very disproportionate amount of money. In that flash the Asmussen horse recieved very little money. There was a $5000 increase in JRC's win pool money.

The late money was so odd, that I had to check the replay to see if JRC broke well on top(which he didn't), which would signal a possible past post."

Fair Grounds isn't a track that I play and study the pool behavior very often. I did notice/document the above example and several people have mentioned the late action there.

With the specific race mentioned, JR Cruiser was an odd situation of a horse going from a hay/oats/water barn - a willing, game horse who had never received lasix in 13 career starts, being purchased by Moss into the high% Amoss barn, and probably should have been moved above the 10k claimer class. Amoss had now given the horse Top Nutrition, and also lasix. Amoss barn could have easily put 3K late on this example knowing that this 4-1 morning line and 2nd/3rd public odds choice was much the best.

It is also possible that there is one or two major whale or syndicate with good Fairground's "information". May also be possible that the tote system is giving a false impression, or for some reason is calculating an important segment of the wagering last.

The pools can be studied, I believe some of the software offered by site members tracks pool information. One would have to look for examples which the late money differed from the distribution during the entire time between races in such a way that it would be uncommon even with the public's expected practice of hammering the chalk as they enter the gate.

When your horse is already the favorite and the pool is relatively small, it is more common to see the odds drop late due to the expected behavior of the betting public.

[rufus999]

I'm always wary of betting coups, syndicate money, and false leads effecting the tote board. I have not noticed a disproportionate amount of late heavy betting action at FG... not any more so than any other track. However, having said that... I will say that I do notice gross inequities in tote board action based on possible race flow outcomes which, I feel are due in no short measure to the amount of maiden claiming races carded on most schedules. These races are skewing the beyer par figures which in turn are becoming statistically inaccurate... so much so that even I discount them in most races. Therefore the horses are doped out using older tested methods which can confuse many modern day punters.

rufus

p.s. by 'skewing' the figures, I mean the races are not considered in any computaions. I do not use the raw times for maiden races when computing par figures or track variants.

[onefast99]

I have seen some late action on a 2-1 shot dropping him to 4-5 or a 3-2 going to even money as they go past the 1/2 mile marker. Interesting thoughts.

[Semipro]

Sometimes late money is scared or smart bookies. I always felt a little crazy when I'd be at the bookies place(like a small OTB) and he would root for the same horse that he had taken large wagers on.

[Shemp Howard]

It's been that way as far back as the early 70's. Go with the flow.

[Shemp Howard]

You look very familar. Didn't I see you buying some tutti frutti ice a cream at Saratgoa last summer? The day High Hat came home at 20-1?

[joeyreb]

I've noticed that with a lot of the LA Tracks.

A few weeks ago at Delta, I bet a horse that was 8-1, 2 min to post, dropped 5-1 just before the load and fell to 9/5 when the gates opened

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by joeyreb

I've noticed that with a lot of the LA Tracks.

A few weeks ago at Delta, I bet a horse that was 8-1, 2 min to post, dropped 5-1 just before the load and fell to 9/5 when the gates opened

Did it win?

[green80]

Thats what makes the Fairgrounds a tough track to beat, the bunch there bets late, bets a lot and are right more often.