"Singles Hitters Drive Fords..."

[Teach]

“Singles hitters drive Fords, home run hitters drive Cadillacs.” Those immortal words were spoken by Ralph Kiner, former Pittsburgh Pirates slugger, and later, New York Mets announcer (“Kiner’s Korner”).

What, you ask…does all this have to do with handicapping the races? Apples and oranges. Not so fast. At least when it comes to the topic of money management. As my tax man once said, “It’s not what you make, it’s what you keep.”

As someone who is getting along in years (mid-70s), I would like to offer my thoughts. Heed or Dismiss. It’s your call.

I have, over the years (I got started making pari-mutuel wagers in August, 1958 when I was 15-years old at the now defunct Foxboro Raceway; now a Gillette Stadium parking lot). I believe I’ve learned a lot over those 60 years (I must admit, especially when I was younger, I haven’t always heeded my own advice).

Yet, one thing does stand out -- when you’re making bets, you must keep “your wits” about you. The track or the casino has a way of mesmerizing you. It’s like you’ve been put “in another world”. Even if you bet through an ADW, that approach can also put you into “another existence,” albeit in your own house.

The point of this post, as the late Ralph Kiner once posited, is that to make money (home runs), you must “take shots.” You need to “swing for the fences.” That doesn’t always mean you have to load up on a single horse. You need to look for “vulnerabilities,” and then swing hard. Then, if, hopefully, you nail something, that brings on the decision-making. That can be a time of peril. You say to yourself, “I’m up. This is my ‘red-letter’ day. Big score. Flush with cash.” I believe that’s when you must be most careful.

From my own experiences -- I have occasionally “let it ride” At the time, I feel like I’m “on the top of the world.” Only, a short time later, I come crashing down to earth. My big day has turned into a disaster. I’m chasing. I’m going “tilt.” I’ve thrown “caution to the wind.” I think you get my drift.

In conclusion, particularly as I’ve grown older, if I do make the big hit (I’m always looking to do just that), I tend to back off. Oh, I’ll continue to bet, but more conservatively. Basically, I’m probing. Let’s say I score for two “yards”; I’ll set up a loss-limit of $150. That’s it. I walk away.

As we all know, most baseball players are happy to hit one home run in a game (the power hitters, like Kiner, occasionally hit two). I believe you’re tempting fate to think you can nail two or more big “scores” in one day.

From my experience, it rarely happens. I want to walk away from my betting day with a profit. As I frequently say, “Tomorrow’s another day.” Sure, I might have made more, but, more often than not, I haven’t.

[lamboguy]

happy new year Teach

[timtam]

I grew up listening to Ralph Kiner and the minute I saw the opening I knew it

was a Ralph Kiner line. How about the time he took out Elizabeth Taylor on a

date and she said Wheres the valet its time to go? Ralph parked the car 5 blocks

from the entrance and said What valet? Last date for big Ralph.

Happy new year Teach love your posts

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks teach.

[thaskalos]

Ralph Kiner could afford to keep "swinging for the fences", because baseball players work with guaranteed contracts. The horseplayers don't. So, the smart horseplayer will grab the occasional single if he can get it...otherwise there might be a long time in-between meals.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Ralph Kiner could afford to keep "swinging for the fences", because baseball players work with guaranteed contracts. The horseplayers don't. So, the smart horseplayer will grab the occasional single if he can get it...otherwise there might be a long time in-between meals.

sometimes its years!

[Robert Fischer]

If we had a contest to hit the furthest softball, and we had 3 'swings' to do it...

the best strategy would be to only take a big swing when it was coming right down the pipe.

ted williams said it well "get a good ball to hit"

single, double, triple, homerun is all positive, so you appreciate any of those...

And when you play the ponies... you can't even get a 'called strike' (unless rent is due ) (don't do that! )

I try to get a fat pitch, and take a good swing on the ball. I'll miss some, I'll 'foul off' some, I'll get some bloop singles... (and I don't stress those as long as I got a fat pitch and took my good swing) but over the course of a 162 game season; I'm gonna get my share of doubles and homeruns.

Practice your swing. Practice your swing in the mirror or in the reflection of a car window... Your swing becomes as perfect as you can get it, and you have full confidence and it becomes NATURAL

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Practice your swing. Practice your swing in the mirror or in the reflection of a car window... Your swing becomes as perfect as you can get it, and you have full confidence and it becomes NATURAL

I think where most horseplayers run into trouble is that often we're "practicing" the same crappy fundamentals that have us hitting pop-ups for 30 years. We really practice that swing, but it's not a swing that will drive the ball in the first place.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Teach

The point of this post, as the late Ralph Kiner once posited, is that to make money (home runs), you must “take shots.” You need to “swing for the fences.” That doesn’t always mean you have to load up on a single horse. You need to look for “vulnerabilities,” and then swing hard. Then, if, hopefully, you nail something, that brings on the decision-making. That can be a time of peril. You say to yourself, “I’m up. This is my ‘red-letter’ day. Big score. Flush with cash.” I believe that’s when you must be most careful...


...As we all know, most baseball players are happy to hit one home run in a game (the power hitters, like Kiner, occasionally hit two). I believe you’re tempting fate to think you can nail two or more big “scores” in one day.

From my experience, it rarely happens. I want to walk away from my betting day with a profit. As I frequently say, “Tomorrow’s another day.” Sure, I might have made more, but, more often than not, I haven’t.

I like most of your narratives.

"You need to 'swing for the fences'”. Beyer wrote that in 1978.

Isn't the fear of cashing because you already cashed, a version of the "Gambler's Fallacy"?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

Isn't the fear of cashing because you already cashed, a version of the "Gambler's Fallacy"?

Yea...

Depends if you are gambling for luck.

If you get lucky and hit a big one, you may as well quit while your ahead...

If you have an edge, and you have more plays with an edge, - yea it's gambler's fallacy to quit... You aren't 'due' for a loss or anything like that...

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I think where most horseplayers run into trouble is that often we're "practicing" the same crappy fundamentals that have us hitting pop-ups for 30 years. We really practice that swing, but it's not a swing that will drive the ball in the first place.

sounds like my golf swing

[andicap]

On the other hand, the Mustang and the Fusion were pretty nice cars.

[ElKabong]

Ralph Kiner never played in a post season game. Maybe if he had mixed in a few base hits with two out and men on instead of popping up or striking out on his heels he could have played in October... Like teams with singles hitters did in his days.

Oh, and he was awful in the field too. Check the metrics on baseball reference .com. Liability.

Fundamentals matter in baseball, handicapping , and betting. Just like it does in life.

[bobphilo]

Lots of bettors are so obsessed with the one big score and fail to realize what long losing streaks, which can inevitably come up in search of the Holy Grail, can destroy their confidence level, so important to any handicapping method.
Every winning bet is an overlay. it's just a question of degree.
Funny how many sports bettors do well when taking even-money when they feel they have the better team but lose out on so many winning horses because they fail to meet some foolishly higher payoffs when they bet on racing.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Ralph Kiner could afford to keep "swinging for the fences", because baseball players work with guaranteed contracts. The horseplayers don't. So, the smart horseplayer will grab the occasional single if he can get it...otherwise there might be a long time in-between meals.

Not in those days. If Kiner, or any of the other players of his day that weren't named Mantle or Williams, signed anything more than 1 or 2 year contracts, it was a major coup.