The Mahoning Mambo

[mountainman]

Websters defines it as : A phenomenon unique to Mahoning Valley Racecourse that entails punitive ground-loss when turning for home as wide(ish) sweepers having collared the leader(s) lose all momentum when skittering wider on a surface that lacks proper banking. Such runners must make a completely separate and renewed bid in attempting to erase a now three or four length deficit just to challenge the leader(s) (again).

[BombsAway Bob]

I'm trying to get a grip on Mahoning racing, since it has a Mountain flavor,
but thus far i am scratching my head after the card wondering what i am
missing. Part of my problem seems to be i can't pinpoint pace scenarios
as well. Should i pay more heed to riders or post position?
NYRAbets offers 20x points on Tuesdays this month, so i've been
sending a few verticals in, without much success.
3 Months 'til my weeknight habitat returns....
Hope all is well, Mark.

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by BombsAway Bob

I'm trying to get a grip on Mahoning racing, since it has a Mountain flavor,
but thus far i am scratching my head after the card wondering what i am
missing. Part of my problem seems to be i can't pinpoint pace scenarios
as well. Should i pay more heed to riders or post position?
NYRAbets offers 20x points on Tuesdays this month, so i've been
sending a few verticals in, without much success.
3 Months 'til my weeknight habitat returns....
Hope all is well, Mark.

Since I handicap the races every day for Mahoning Valley (The Postman's Picks), I agree it is always challenging. When the weather is like its been recently (Light rain or snow and temps ranging between 30 and 40 degrees) it is downright scary to 'cap MVR. I'll share some things that may or may not be helpful. On fast surfaces, especially nearly frozen ones, outside posts can be golden. Horses sitting about 3-5 lengths off the pace have the best chances of "the stalk and pounce" winning move.



Mile races usually mean that any horses in posts 8, 9, or 10 will be hung wide with little chance of crossing over or being able to save ground. Because of the short distance to the 1st turn, 10 is the maximum of runners permitted. A race going 1 mile and 70 yards can accommodate 12 runners. Note horses that have had those poor posts and have pressed then faded. If they turn up in the same condition with a better post, they often bounce back.


Conditions are key to picking winners. My limit on "droppers" are ones that ran for open 8K recently that show up for open 5K or 5K-4K conditioned races. Anything above that are fire sale candidates. So 8K is "The Mendoza Line". Allowance horses dropping to 15K or 10K can be considered, depending on the connections. Subtle drops from NW3Y to NW2Y are usually good plays.


Jockeys are very important at MVR. Here are my rankings:


Gerardo Coralles (A+) He won Fall riding title. Goes to Turfway Thurs-Sat.
Jose Bracho (A) He is still young and learning. Loooch sends him all over.
Joe Ramos (A) Contreras has many horses here and Turfway. 1st call.
Sonny Leon (A-) Resurgent career. Also on Turfway merry-go-round.
Erik Barbaran (A-) Often over looked. Back in with Bernardini.
Jaime Rodriguez (B+) He seems to be getting over an early slump.
Luis Perez (B) He picks up many mounts when Turfway guys are gone.
Bobby Quinones (B) 2nd leading rider nation wide in '19. In tough at MVR.
Luis Gonzalez (B-) One of the many T-Down based riders that are OK.
Christian Pilares (B-) Ditto about T-Down. Often goes hot and cold.
Edgar Paucar (C+) Always tries hard. Doesn't get the best of mounts.


Trainers that can be bet with confidence:


Jeffrey Radosevich, Richard Zielinski, Kevin Buttigieg, Gary Johnson, and Penny Rone. Jay Bernardini, Julie Pappada, Jeffrey Skerrett are a notch below. Also Larry Smith and William Cowans occasionally show up and must be included.


RR

[castaway01]

RRpic6, I didn't want to copy your whole post but I want to thank you for the excellent information. I can't figure out these tracks and don't really try, but they should be happy to have you working for them.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by BombsAway Bob

I'm trying to get a grip on Mahoning racing, since it has a Mountain flavor,
but thus far i am scratching my head after the card wondering what i am
missing. Part of my problem seems to be i can't pinpoint pace scenarios
as well. Should i pay more heed to riders or post position?
NYRAbets offers 20x points on Tuesdays this month, so i've been
sending a few verticals in, without much success.
3 Months 'til my weeknight habitat returns....
Hope all is well, Mark.

hi bob,,,not ignoring your implicit request for help...just very busy right now...looks like postman was very helpful, but before i get time for more depth..let me just add that mvr was a cash machine for me the first several years, but the participation of more and more sharp players has made it harder to win money..i would note that mahoning results waver on many days between fair and dead-rail, this is because the surface often changes as the day wears on, and also because, unlike at some tracks where "dead-rail" actually means "wider the better," the mvr surface, when playing anti-rail, tends to be dead ONLY down close to the fence...

also, change your baseline concerning pro-speed trends, whereas at mountaineer, for instance, there are frequent trends that fine early leaders virtually unbeatable, mvr almost NEVER becomes that speed-favoring...in addition, with the requisite "wisde guys" now playing mvr, (and each, as wiseguys will, being completely convinced they invented the concept of track bias), the tote often jumps the gun in perceiving some sort of track bias, mahoning is the CLASSIC case of guys proclaiming after one race that "speed cant lose today," or "the rail can't win",and since the surface is changeable, and the wise guys really aren't that wise, it can pay to bet contrarian to a track bias you suspect the players have jumped the gun on....

to be honest, i'm not quite as high on the jock colony as postman is, and i think incompetent strategy is the culprit when you can't predict the race-flow...one thing to remember is that mvr jocks are super greedy and self destructive..with just a few exceptions, they can't STAND to look up at the first call and see the money in somebody else's pocket..so they send..send ..send..and chase ..chase ..chase..very often sacrificing their mounts needlessly........NOBODY leads unchallenged at mvr...and every horse that grabs command early must fight every single kid on the block to hold onto it...........

perhaps, though, the hardest thing about playing mvr is the sheer volume of inexplicable form-reversals,,one reason for this is that many horses there continue to campaign amidst long, long, wrap-around seasons, and a horse that has run 17 or 18 times since getting a vacation just can't hold its form like a fresher animal..consequently, these battered warriors fluctuate in and out of form..fairly often with no apparent reason.......

to some extent, veteran ohio breds take turns beating each other.....

and also, 2 or 3 wide from close range around the far turn is generally a great trip at mvr, as is a well-timed late run that finds the jock saving some ground or splitting horses......a good rule of thumb in closed alw races or alw/optional is that an ohio bred facing open company is probably outclassed if sporting just one alw win more than the opens from other states...is fairly spotted if the resume shows two more..and has the best of it if showing three more...in simpler terms...an ohio bred having won three alw races will outclass "open" nw1x foes,,etc..etc..

PLEASE pardon the free-flowing nature of this post..i rushed through it at midnight......more to come

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by castaway01

RRpic6, I didn't want to copy your whole post but I want to thank you for the excellent information. I can't figure out these tracks and don't really try, but they should be happy to have you working for them.

so true..

[rrpic6]

Thanks for the kind words Castaway and Mark "Mountainman". No disrespect to Matt Hook who makes the Morning Lines at MVR but doesn't at Thistledown (or hasn't in the past), but I make my own ML's and have found mine to be closer to the Post Time odds. This lends credence to what Mark says about it being harder to show a profit do to sharper wise guys betting into the pools. It happens often where an 8-1 ML (possibly 3-1 on my line) gets bet down to 9-5 and runs either 1st or 2nd. Mumblings of "someone knew about that horse" can be heard in the Clubhouse. There still are great values to be found in the early and late Daily Doubles and in most Exacta plays.


Mark is also spot on about Ohio Bred vets taking turns winning in State Bred claiming races. Owners can thank the Racino funded purses for pocketing much more cash than many of those ho-hum runners deserve for winning.


Thanks to TVG for helping the handle, especially on Mondays and Tuesdays when there is little else to bet on during the dead of Winter.


Good Luck and keep sending it in.


RR

[FantasticDan]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

Jaime Rodriguez (B+) He seems to be getting over an early slump.
Luis Perez (B) He picks up many mounts when Turfway guys are gone.

Rodriguez was the top jock for Finger Lakes' 2019 meet, and Perez was 4th. I didn't even realize they rode at Mahoning during FL's off season

[BombsAway Bob]

Thanks for your insight Postman. great info.

[BombsAway Bob]

Thanks a bunch Mark, that's why i don't text you during Mountain off-season,
figure you have other things to do. Looks like i'll need a new method
to text you next season, as Xfinity is stopping text service the end of March.
(P.S.: went to heart Doc today after having an echo done 2 weeks ago.
My LVEF rate bumped up from 20% to 50%, which she said was good.)

[turfeyejoe]

Conspicuous by his absence on your jockey list: T.D. Houghton
What grade would you give him?

[rastajenk]

Mahoning has a Clubhouse?

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by turfeyejoe

Conspicuous by his absence on your jockey list: T.D. Houghton
What grade would you give him?

T.D. was a fine journeyman in his day. It's not easy keeping up with younger and stronger riders. Hope that satisfies your question.


RR

[turfeyejoe]

I find it interesting the last time someone here gave out grades for MVR jocks (perhaps 2 years ago) Quinonez and Pilares earned an A; Houghton a B; Leon at C plus and Corralles a C. So I guess Leon and Corralles have improved dramatically.

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by turfeyejoe

I find it interesting the last time someone here gave out grades for MVR jocks (perhaps 2 years ago) Quinonez and Pilares earned an A; Houghton a B; Leon at C plus and Corralles a C. So I guess Leon and Corralles have improved dramatically.

Those were my grades based on my daily observations then and now. BTW Quinones and Pilares graded out at A- not A in my rankings posted in January of 2019. Coralles is by far the best Jockey now riding at MVR. Luis Colon used to hold that title. He will ride at Belterra but no longer at MVR or Thistledown. Leon's grade improved as mentioned in this thread (resurgent). I might give Houghton a "C" for this year. I again will not mention names that I believe fall below that "C" grading.



RR