The advantages of making you own numbers

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I disagree. And, I'm by no means saying TimeformUS figures are perfect. But in a game as tough as racing, trying to overcome a 20% rake, even a 5% improvement could be significant.

I'm not familiar enough with all of those listed above, but at least a few I would confidently take on in any type of performance test.

It behooves the horseplayer to use the most accurate numbers possible. Even a slight improvement in ROI can make a huge difference in the long run.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It behooves the horseplayer to use the most accurate numbers possible. Even a slight improvement in ROI can make a huge difference in the long run.

They can be less accurate and pay better. Like I said, being different does get you something. For instance, my figures (which are totally automated) will probably never be as accurate as some of the other professionally made ones, but they already get a higher ROI (probably) than most others doing simple tests like "best last race fig".

ALSO, if you have access to one of those commercially produced figures and your own is different enough, combining the two into a new figure and you possibly can make one better than either. (I'm finding.)

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by cj

I disagree. And, I'm by no means saying TimeformUS figures are perfect. But in a game as tough as racing, trying to overcome a 20% rake, even a 5% improvement could be significant.

I'm not familiar enough with all of those listed above, but at least a few I would confidently take on in any type of performance test.

Cj,

a) You mean an improvement sufficient enough to reduce the rake by 5 points to 15%?

b) When you say improvement, do you mean an improvement to the precision of the speed figure (higher win %) or do you mean an ROI improvement? In other words would your top figure runner (whatever that is to include, i.e. best of last 2, same distance, surface, etc) win at higher rate than other services or do you mean that while your top figure runner may not win more frequently, when they do win they will win at a higher price since you will be on different runners? Understanding of course, if it was just the win % we were looking to improve, we would just bet the favorite.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

They can be less accurate and pay better. Like I said, being different does get you something. For instance, my figures (which are totally automated) will probably never be as accurate as some of the other professionally made ones, but they already get a higher ROI (probably) than most others doing simple tests like "best last race fig".

ALSO, if you have access to one of those commercially produced figures and your own is different enough, combining the two into a new figure and you possibly can make one better than either. (I'm finding.)

Interesting.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

I always seem to do well during the week and get slaughtered on the weekend, at least it seems that way...

Would you consider yourself a non-conventional/contrarian handicapper or are you just an automation devotee?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

They can be less accurate and pay better. Like I said, being different does get you something. For instance, my figures (which are totally automated) will probably never be as accurate as some of the other professionally made ones, but they already get a higher ROI (probably) than most others doing simple tests like "best last race fig".

ALSO, if you have access to one of those commercially produced figures and your own is different enough, combining the two into a new figure and you possibly can make one better than either. (I'm finding.)

IMO...the real job of a reliable speed figure isn't to find winners for us. Winners are discovered by our entire handicapping methodology...and the speed figures play only a PART in the handicapping process. Accurate speed figures allow us to get a better UNDERSTANDING of the race at hand...while inaccurate figures take away ftom our understanding of the race. Do the figures accurately portray what is actually taking place on the track? If so...great. If not, then we have a problem...because the more inaccurate the figure, the more confusion it's likely to cause...regardless of its 'unknown" status.

Speed figures don't pick winners...not enough anyway. HORSEPLAYERS do...and only by employing a more diverse set of skills. The horseplayer's main job is to increase his understanding of the game...and 'inaccurate' figures hinder this understanding...even if they point to higher-priced horses.

That's MY opinion, anyway..

[banacek]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It behooves the horseplayer to use the most accurate numbers possible. Even a slight improvement in ROI can make a huge difference in the long run.

Totally agree..that is what has kept me going..and (usually) profitable.

Say thaskalos...are you still working on a book?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by banacek

Totally agree..that is what has kept me going..and (usually) profitable.

Say thaskalos...are you still working on a book?

Yes...I am working on a book, and it should have been out by now. The problem is that I am not a man of few words, and the final manuscript has reached well over 400 pages (I wanted to leave no chance of any misunderstandings regarding my handicapping and betting opinions). The publisher is requesting that I downsize it...but I find that I still have more things to say.

I apologize for the delay...and promise that the final outcome will prove worthwhile. There will be free copies for all my paceadvantage friends. Thaskalos doesn't rely on book sales to earn his daily bread.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Would you consider yourself a non-conventional/contrarian handicapper or are you just an automation devotee?

Automated contrariness.

[banacek]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yes...I am working on a book, and it should have been out by now. The problem is that I am not a man of few words, and the final manuscript has reached well over 400 pages (I wanted to leave no chance of any misunderstandings regarding my handicapping and betting opinions). The publisher is requesting that I downsize it...but I find that I still have more things to say.

I apologize for the delay...and promise that the final outcome will prove worthwhile. There will be free copies for all my paceadvantage friends. Thaskalos doesn't rely on book sales to earn his daily bread.

Sounds great!

[Fastracehorse]

….which speed figure is the most precise (as a figure maker myself for over a decade)

even if you had the most precise figure - u are measuring an animal that will not repeat his best last performance, precisely

in the 'ball-park' repeat effort if your lucky - and at a $ if you are luckier

if you come across a horse that your figure gives a 100 to - and he's running against a group that has a par of 80 - how precise does your figure need to be?

these situations occur and that's why there are figure makers

the real power of figures is understanding why the top figure fails - i.e., there is alot to learn about horse racing

fffastt

[sjk]

Speed figures as I think of them are not good predictors of next race speed figures. There are obvious examples where horses misallocated their energy and ran up the track and ran a poor speed figure.

Speed figures are one piece of a process of making an adjusted figure that does predict future speed figures. I would look at the ability to predict future speed figures using a speed figure methodology and a fully defined scheme of adjustments to evaluate both parts of the calculation.

[crestridge]

A few years ago a book by Scatoni, "Six Secrets Of Successful Betters", mentioned, that the consensus of these successful winners were using information in a "unique" way. Which can mean, utilizing commonly known numbers but adding a unique "twist" to that number. Probably most commercial applications by themselves are not profitable, but if you add your own "twist", to these applications, you may find a good edge.

I myself use commercial applications, but I've delved into the world of statistics
and found some ways to apply these numbers, which as far as I can tell, the public hasn't discovered. It's not big, just some small variances here and there, utilizing sound math/statistical methods in addition to these numbers. Then it seems, these number take on "new" meaning. I guess this is called hybrid handicapping. Partly common knowledge/conventional, but partly my own research "twist".

Doing everything from scratch, if accurate, is probably optimal, but more time consuming and very difficult. The most gifted do this. Myself, I'm not that gifted, so I must build on others knowledge/research.

[Capper Al]

I am writing my new system creating class, speed, pace, etc. The commercially published figures are good. I happen to code and make databases, so I can't help do so. But it takes a lot of time to code and test. I think finding a product one is comfortable with and using their numbers isn't all bad. In the end, what one must learn to do is wager. No matter how they get there- commercial or home grown system. After all this work, it has come down to watching the tote-board and knowing when to strike. And this is more complex than waiting for value only.

[thoroughbred]

Husker55,

You are correct. It's important to know how the numbers in software programs were made.

The following links take you to the mathematical/engineering basis of CompuTrak, which explains how the numbers were made. These reports are part of the package that comes with the program documentation

http://www.revelationprofits.com/doc...20Analysis.pdf

http://www.revelationprofits.com/docs/addendum.pdf

If you prefer, you can skip the math and just read the text and still get a good understanding of how the numbers are created.

Originally Posted by HUSKER55

but the up side is you know how they were made. the problem with buying numbers is that your win cycle will match theirs. The reason they sell numbers is because a lot of players don't know how or do not want to make their own. After all, it requires work and work is a four letter word. It is also another revenue source.

For 4 easy payments of just $29.99 I will sell you mine!
[ sorry....couldn't resist]

Ever notice that every horse in every race has money on it? Somebody's system wins and the rest fail. For all of the hype, I seriously doubt the strike rates of 50% and up that is offered up in sales pitches is real. Why in the hell would anyone sell a system that could do that?

Come to think of it, where would they find the time between betting and going to the bank?

JMHO