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Old 01-16-2018, 01:07 PM   #46
classhandicapper
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Your first statement above contradicts your feel about Saratoga. If unsophisticated money truly is going in the wrong direction at the windows then there will be even more money poured in by the sophisticated bettors. Saratoga can yield many "good' prices because the races can have large fields and be very competitive, much like a Derby or a BC race.
I think Saratoga (and the Derby/BC) are more attractive because the largest sophisticated betters are not raising their own bets enough to offset the huge influx of tourist and casual money. However, that does mean it will remain that way indefinitely.

Field size correlates to price, but that doesn't necessarily mean there are more overlays. My data suggests it's a little easier to find value in larger fields because hopeless longshots still tend to be overbet a little. The more of them the merrier. But I'd still way rather compete with the folks that bet 5 mule races at Fernadale.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:14 PM   #47
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I am sure Betfair would get paid for providing a service but they must contract with the tracks for the percentage they will keep.
In the case of New Jersey, Betfair gets the lion's share. If exchange wagering was such a great idea for the tracks, there is no reason they can't run it themselves instead of getting into bed with a complete outsider whose interests aren't completely aligned with the tracks. The exchange software itself is nothing complicated and could be developed fairly easily.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:35 PM   #48
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If exchange wagering was such a great idea for the tracks, there is no reason they can't run it themselves instead of getting into bed with a complete outsider whose interests aren't completely aligned with the tracks. The exchange software itself is nothing complicated and could be developed fairly easily.
I agree.
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:13 PM   #49
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Here is what I believe you are missing. Before Zeljko bets the pool looks like this:

Horse A +10
Horse B -30
Horse C -30
Horse D -30

The overwhelming majority of bettors will be helped because they won't be on horse A in the first place. They are getting better prices on their underlays. Underlays do win sometimes.

My problem is not with the rebate players, it is with the PM system. I only care what price I am getting when I bet, it is irrelevant what someone else gets. But when I don't know what price I am getting when I bet it essentially becomes a guessing game and not one where I evaluate the probability of a horse winning and bet when the odds are favorable to my evaluation.
That is indeed a huge problem with horse racing today and this problem is made far worse by both rebates and crw(obviously the bigger the rebate the more below ev the whales can bet a combo and thus the larger the late odss swings). I have mentioned this before, and John Pricci I believe has also mentioned this at least one of his articles. If you are going to rebate big volume players, at least make there bets get into the pool by 3 minutes to post(after 3 minutes to post, no rebates available. If they choose to cancel after that they should be charged a penalty of typical rebate for that type of bet+5%, otherwise they will just use cancelling as a tool to bet). One minute for it to show up in the pools and by two minutes to post the non rebated player now at least will have a fairly good idea of what the final odds are going to be. Sure there will be some late fluctuation, but most of the big money will be in the pools by 2 minutes to post and the late odds changes will be tiny relative to how they are today. I really do not see this at a big deterrent to whales betting. They are pretty much guesstimating the odds anyhow.

If you are going to give the whales the store with rebates and crw access, at least give the little guy (non rebated player) some edge too (a chance to play into a pretty much finalized pool). I think you will find many players who get rebates will actually elect to make both rebated and non rebated wagers). I highly doubt we will ever see the end of rebates or crw's in this game no matter how loud we scream, so this might be the best alternative.
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Old 01-16-2018, 04:11 PM   #50
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Hi, here in Europe several Bookies are already offering fixed odds on US races. Not just Betfair, also William Hill, Bet 365, Paddy Power, Coral and others. The odds even differ from bookie to bookie and you can chose the best price. Recetly I got 10-1 for Glorious Moment who won at 5-2 (pool odds) at GP. This is the best way to bet if youre a win player. If your horse is 5-1 the moment you bet it you get 5-1 (also win parlays are cool when you know what you will get). For exotics I still use the pools, I don't play many though.
However, almost everywhere in the world fixed odds on horse racing offered by bookies are allowed. Europe, Africa, Australia, don't know about Asia (I think in Hong Kong and Singapore it's not allowed). It's a pity that it's not in America.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:01 PM   #51
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I don't know enough about the subject to have a real opinion.

Without putting in the work to understand the issue, my superficial guess would be that robotic wagers don't bother me. It seems like we're doing two fundamentally different things. That the robotic wager is searching for pool inefficiencies, and I'm looking for inefficiencies of the favorite. Unless the robot has equal or greater skill, then when I am fortunate enough to find a bad favorite, all the robot does is ensure that various pools all pay well by gobbling up the underlays.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:09 PM   #52
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I don't know enough about the subject to have a real opinion.

Without putting in the work to understand the issue, my superficial guess would be that robotic wagers don't bother me. It seems like we're doing two fundamentally different things. That the robotic wager is searching for pool inefficiencies, and I'm looking for inefficiencies of the favorite. Unless the robot has equal or greater skill, then when I am fortunate enough to find a bad favorite, all the robot does is ensure that various pools all pay well by gobbling up the underlays.
I think what you're saying may go against pure math, since the more good players we're competing with who are beating the takeout (in some cases, by a lot), the less money we can win. However, since we've all been competing with robotic wagers for years, if you've been winning the past few years, then I guess you're already handling that level of competition. The issue, of course, is that most of us can't do that because there just isn't enough money to come back to us through the pools. And then we're back to takeout and rebates again.

Interesting topic, as always, but in the end it just highlights numerous frustrations you have to face when playing this game.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:14 PM   #53
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In the case of New Jersey, Betfair gets the lion's share. If exchange wagering was such a great idea for the tracks, there is no reason they can't run it themselves instead of getting into bed with a complete outsider whose interests aren't completely aligned with the tracks. The exchange software itself is nothing complicated and could be developed fairly easily.
Not running ADWs in the beginning is what got tracks into this hole they've been trying to slowly dig themselves out of the last few years.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:17 PM   #54
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Hi, here in Europe several Bookies are already offering fixed odds on US races. Not just Betfair, also William Hill, Bet 365, Paddy Power, Coral and others. The odds even differ from bookie to bookie and you can chose the best price. Recetly I got 10-1 for Glorious Moment who won at 5-2 (pool odds) at GP. This is the best way to bet if youre a win player. If your horse is 5-1 the moment you bet it you get 5-1 (also win parlays are cool when you know what you will get). For exotics I still use the pools, I don't play many though.
However, almost everywhere in the world fixed odds on horse racing offered by bookies are allowed. Europe, Africa, Australia, don't know about Asia (I think in Hong Kong and Singapore it's not allowed). It's a pity that it's not in America.
i was just wondering if these bookmakers have to pay the tracks for the privilege of booking those horses.


it certainly would be a great idea in this country and i believe it would add interest in the game.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:33 PM   #55
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i was just wondering if these bookmakers have to pay the tracks for the privilege of booking those horses.


it certainly would be a great idea in this country and i believe it would add interest in the game.
Yes! And they are regulated.

If you attend races in the UK you have a choice of betting with numerous bookies who set up shop right in front of the grandstand or you can bet through the tote. It is quite a neat experience for a horseplayer used to betting in the US.

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Old 01-16-2018, 05:33 PM   #56
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Efficient odds at retail takeout makes the game next to impossible to beat in the long-run. CRWs are NOT good for the retail bettor, and it's not even debatable. They ARE good for the tracks however, who could care less whether you get value on your wager or not.

The real issue is that the computer groups are getting access to the tote system and are basically setting the odds to whatever they want to at the last second-So the true odds only become apparent AFTER the gates close.

I my opinion, Betfair and fixed odds betting would at least neutralize the playing field a little bit, so that the odds you are looking at in real time are at least TRUE odds.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:38 PM   #57
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i was just wondering if these bookmakers have to pay the tracks for the privilege of booking those horses.

it certainly would be a great idea in this country and i believe it would add interest in the game.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38609519

Apparently, UK firms pay a 10% tax on profits from their bookings on UK races.

Those bookmaking outfits are quick to limit or boot anyone with a clue, so I am not sure if that's what we want over here.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:47 PM   #58
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http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38609519

Apparently, UK firms pay a 10% tax on profits from their bookings on UK races.

Those bookmaking outfits are quick to limit or boot anyone with a clue, so I am not sure if that's what we want over here.
10% on profits is a measly amount as well.

No one should ever want us to mimic what they're doing in Europe. Their purses are awful.
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Old 01-16-2018, 07:03 PM   #59
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10% on profits is a measly amount as well.

No one should ever want us to mimic what they're doing in Europe. Their purses are awful.
10% on gross profits not net profits.
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Old 01-16-2018, 07:04 PM   #60
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Owners who want to pay crazy amounts for yearlings shouldn't expect Customer subsidized purse welfare.
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