Florida Derby

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Wickel

I totally agree. Rosie should should have sent, or at the very least, kept Merit Man and company outside of her. As it turned out, she was checking into the turn and nearly clipped heels. Bobby definitely belonged in the race. I'm not so sure about Rosie.

I don't agree, what race were you guys watching? The longer they go, the worse this horse gets.......Meanwhile, the furthur they go, Orb looks better. I don't care what Rosie does........Orb wins that race for fun, just like he did. This is what i was saying about "hyped" horses and the excuses. People just won't admit that Bobby most likely is NOT a 10 furlong horse. If she sends that horse he probably tires even faster and that track plays to speed. Orb ran against the the pace and grain of this track and still won for fun. Last time the pace was so fast, Orb got it handed to him.....not yesterday, that was a deadly move that horse made on horses that should of had some gas left. If Orb stays healthy, Shug has got something really good here!

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I don't agree, what race were you guys watching? The longer they go, the worse this horse gets.......Meanwhile, the furthur they go, Orb looks better. I don't care what Rosie does........Orb wins that race for fun, just like he did. This is what i was saying about "hyped" horses and the excuses. People just won't admit that Bobby most likely is NOT a 10 furlong horse. If she sends that horse he probably tires even faster and that track plays to speed. Orb ran against the the pace and grain of this track and still won for fun. Last time the pace was so fast, Orb got it handed to him.....not yesterday, that was a deadly move that horse made on horses that should of had some gas left. If Orb stays healthy, Shug has got something really good here!

I'm not blaming Rosie. The blame is on Pletcher for trying to change the horse's running style because he was worried about getting the distance. IMO he should have let the horse run it's race or should have never been entered in the first place.

Do you really think all that early checking was better for Bobby's chances then taking the lead in that slow paced race

[classhandicapper]

I was disappointed in both Bobby and Itsmyluckday (didn't play the race). It was obvious that Bobby might decline as the distances stretched out, but he was struggling long before the race got to that point. At one point Rosie was asking and there wasn't much there. I don't buy that he couldn't relax/rate etc.. IMO he flat out regressed. Had he made a run or been in serious contention at the 1/8th pole and then gave way it would be different.

IMO, Itsmyluckyday also regressed off his recent win. This "could" be a case of a horse peaking too soon.

Orb was OK. Shug brings them along slowly. So he will probably get better, but I think this win may have been more the result of the other contenders not firing their "A" race than Orb running so well.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I was disappointed in both Bobby and Itsmyluckday (didn't play the race). It was obvious that Bobby might decline as the distances stretched out, but he was struggling long before the race got to that point. At one point Rosie was asking and there wasn't much there. I don't buy that he couldn't relax/rate etc.. IMO he flat out regressed. Had he made a run or been in serious contention at the 1/8th pole and then gave way it would be different.

IMO, Itsmyluckyday also regressed off his recent win. This "could" be a case of a horse peaking too soon.

Orb was OK. Shug brings them along slowly. So he will probably get better, but I think this win may have been more the result of the other contenders not firing their "A" race than Orb running so well.

I tend to agree, and I also agree that SB should have been let to run his race, he either has it or doesn't. Going slower than normal and being behind early can't help him. Orb may have still won, but at least we would have known more about SB, and so would the trainer. Now who knows what the horse can do? When a horse is taken out of his normal running style, it just muddies the water.

Fortunately, for us, we won't be wondering about him come Derby day because he won't be there.

[Wickel]

Originally Posted by raybo

I tend to agree, and I also agree that SB should have been let to run his race, he either has it or doesn't. Going slower than normal and being behind early can't help him. Orb may have still won, but at least we would have known more about SB, and so would the trainer. Now who knows what the horse can do? When a horse is taken out of his normal running style, it just muddies the water.

Fortunately, for us, we won't be wondering about him come Derby day because he won't be there.

Exactly. Never ran his race. And I do blame Rosie because of her antics on the first turn. Pletcher wasn't trying to change is game plan. He knew Merit Man was the speed of the race, and wanted Bobby to get a strong, tactical position inside. I just feel Rosie was caught napping at the start and let the speed close up the rail. That being said, there's no question that Orb ran a super race and most likely would have won anyway. But we won't know what Bobby could have done, because he didn't run his race.

[cj]

I don't see how anyone could watch Shanghai Bobby in that race and think a change in tactics was going to make him competitive.

[senortout]

There was not one horse in that race who could not have set those ridiculously slow fractions....witness Desormeaux setting the pace and holding on for third...what were they afraid of?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't see how anyone could watch Shanghai Bobby in that race and think a change in tactics was going to make him competitive.

CJ, I'm not really saying that letting him run his preferred running style would have made him more competitive, but, because he wasn't allowed to do that, we will never know what might have happened in the race had he run as most thought he would, early. We might have had the same winner (or not, because the complexion of the race might have been quite different, affecting the way others may have run the race, which might have affected the winner in all kinds of ways, traffic, etc.), and the other money positions might have been quite different.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by senortout

There was not one horse in that race who could not have set those ridiculously slow fractions....witness Desormeaux setting the pace and holding on for third...what were they afraid of?

Yeah, I don't know what kind of inner clock Rosie has, but if she had even a decent clock, she would have known that the slow pace was not advantageous to her horse. At least that's my thought.

In short, when a horse who likes the lead, and a faster pace, is prevented from doing that, it affects every horse in the race, in one way or another.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by senortout

There was not one horse in that race who could not have set those ridiculously slow fractions....witness Desormeaux setting the pace and holding on for third...what were they afraid of?

I think they were afraid of Itsmyluckyday and Orb to some extent, but Desormeaux also knew his only chance at that class and distance was controlling an easy pace.

Desormeaux also brought Merit Man over pretty aggressively from the gate, and if Napravnik had broke more aggressively we may have seen a foul occur against the 8.

[RXB]

I'm not quite understanding some of this blame-Napravnik and Bobby-didn't-get-a-chance sentiment.

Merit Man is coming out of a succession of frontrunning sprint efforts. Bobby has been running in routes and the last time he sprinted, in a 7f race back at Saratoga, he was sitting fourth and three lengths behind at the first call. Merit Man appeared to be the likeliest frontrunner and once he outbroke/outsped Bobby, there wasn't much Napravnik could do as another horse went and pressed from the outside so she couldn't swing off the rail into a pressing position outside of Merit Man.

As it was, the horse didn't have a bad trip. He was in a nearby chasing position while saving ground. It might not have been absolutely ideal for him but it wasn't bad.

[cj]

Originally Posted by RXB

As it was, the horse didn't have a bad trip. He was in a nearby chasing position while saving ground. It might not have been absolutely ideal for him but it wasn't bad.

Exactly, and he couldn't pass any of the horses in front of him, not even the horse that should have been 10,000 to 1, but was only 100+ to 1.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by raybo

I tend to agree, and I also agree that SB should have been let to run his race, he either has it or doesn't. Going slower than normal and being behind early can't help him. Orb may have still won, but at least we would have known more about SB, and so would the trainer. Now who knows what the horse can do? When a horse is taken out of his normal running style, it just muddies the water.

Fortunately, for us, we won't be wondering about him come Derby day because he won't be there.

Absolutely.Let him,especially at this age feel his machismo and see what happens.This is,at the very least a really good horse,and I think they have him so confused he doesn't know how to act.I just hope it doesn't F him up for life.

Happy Easter Ray,btw!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I think they were afraid of Itsmyluckyday and Orb to some extent, but Desormeaux also knew his only chance at that class and distance was controlling an easy pace.

Desormeaux also brought Merit Man over pretty aggressively from the gate, and if Napravnik had broke more aggressively we may have seen a foul occur against the 8.

Fear and loathing in the Florida Derby!We could write that book everyday!I saw it happen yesterday too in the race after the Louisiana Derby,Optimizer's connections were so terrified of a marathon Mott runner they conceded the lead and promptly got trounced.The absolute fear amazes me at times.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Absolutely.Let him,especially at this age feel his machismo and see what happens.This is,at the very least a really good horse,and I think they have him so confused he doesn't know how to act.I just hope it doesn't F him up for life.

Happy Easter Ray,btw!

Thanks Rod, you too!