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Old 03-11-2018, 09:15 PM   #31
coachv30
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FLM 9- $14.60
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:08 PM   #32
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We're due for one at Rideau-Carlton....

Race 11- Gagnon / Gagnon - 8/1 ML
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Old 03-12-2018, 08:29 AM   #33
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Woodbine R 6 . #8

Class Me Nice-6/1 . . . . Jackie Mo/Jackie Mo

Moiseyev on a claimed Trotter !
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:10 AM   #34
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ray that was a very helpful chart on the driver trainers thank you .didnt you do one on off the claim or trainer claims for himself ? i went looking for it on here but theres just too many posts to search through . thanks an best of luck capping
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:47 AM   #35
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ray that was a very helpful chart on the driver trainers thank you .didnt you do one on off the claim or trainer claims for himself ? i went looking for it on here but theres just too many posts to search through . thanks an best of luck capping
thx
that post on betting horses off claim is here
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=140391

I never did verify by checking other years but I think the positive ROIs are true.
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Old 03-12-2018, 04:18 PM   #36
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Hey coach, Dover or Canadian "B" is where to look. Good Luck

Code:
Driver is Trainer		
Track	Starts	ROI
ddx	345	1.048
flm	666	0.964
lex	505	0.913
grv	337	0.905
rcr	402	0.901
npx	444	0.883
vdx	1114	0.872
tgd	626	0.869
rid	911	0.852
btv	408	0.821
haw	584	0.814
mxx	445	0.791
phl	731	0.788
fhl	370	0.760
mea	1259	0.758
		
Driver not Trainer but has same last name 		
lex	60	1.530
haw	273	0.971
ddx	324	0.956
tgd	34	0.929
mvr	548	0.910
hop	504	0.908
scd	749	0.893
wdb	143	0.812
yrx	235	0.805
stg	777	0.790
rcr	159	0.786
dtn	316	0.760
grv	99	0.760
mrx	173	0.756
vdx	355	0.730
What if we only bet these combos at 5-1 or better?
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Old 03-12-2018, 06:41 PM   #37
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What if we only bet these combos at 5-1 or better?
Typically most overlays are in the 3/1 - 5/1 range on any subset of horses.

This is the case here.
Sweet spot seems to be between 3/1 and 7/2

These ROIs are for all starters where Dr = Tr or Dr and Tr same last name.

All 5/1 or higher odds is 0.666, 24,843 starters.

The way I do ROIs is using a population of starters with a certain criteria.
It's good for showing trends but it's possible some of these starters are in the same race.
ROIs are lowered a bit because of that.

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Old 03-12-2018, 08:13 PM   #38
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Western Fair

Race 6- $20.40.......G. Dustin / G. Dustin
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Old 03-12-2018, 08:56 PM   #39
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Woodbine R 6 . #8

Class Me Nice-6/1 . . . . Jackie Mo/Jackie Mo

Moiseyev on a claimed Trotter !
IMO, he actually raced better than the line will look.
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Old 03-12-2018, 09:01 PM   #40
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IMO, he actually raced better than the line will look.
Agreed!!

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ML 8/1....Simons / Simons
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Old 03-12-2018, 09:14 PM   #41
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Agreed!!

Pompano 5

ML 8/1....Simons / Simons
Recovered strongly after a break to finish 3rd.
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Old 03-12-2018, 09:18 PM   #42
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Recovered strongly after a break to finish 3rd.
Great call, $4.40 to show!!!
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Old 03-12-2018, 09:36 PM   #43
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Great call, $4.40 to show!!!

By a nose

Pompano 6- Hoffman / Hoffman ML 5-1
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Old 03-12-2018, 10:22 PM   #44
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Pompano 8

Major / Major...ML15 / 1

Schaut / Schaut...ML 8/1
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Old 03-12-2018, 10:57 PM   #45
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Yonkers 10- $27.40...LaChance / LaChance
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