Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-10-2018, 03:31 AM   #256
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
I would agree the industry is failing, but I believe it is because younger people would rather sit at a slot machine and push a button rather than invest (how long?) time into becoming an educated horse player.

Even if their chances of winning is greater playing horses than slots or the lottery - slots or lottery is a dumb play that any imbecile can win.

The biggest problem is attracting younger fans more interested in mindless gaming with bells and whistles and OMG there is an ELLEN slot machine I can play!

I would advocate race tracks cater more to the sports betting crowd. Get every MMA or boxing PPV fight, fantasy football crowds - all that. Throw up some horse racing signals, offer an analyst and maybe a 'group play' sort of format so people can just ride along the coat tails of somebody who knows the game and might hit a decent payout once in a while.

Marketing can go a long ways.
I think the widespread popularity of online poker and fantasy sports proves conclusively that the "younger fans" aren't just interested in the mindless games like the slots and the lottery. The young people of today are willing to seriously apply themselves towards a challenging form of "gambling"...assuming that they find such a game APPEALING. The fact that the younger population currently shuns this game is a testament to their gambling-intelligence and maturity...IMO. Horse racing, in its current form, isn't a game that's worth serious study and time-commitment. The young people's efforts are better served elsewhere.
__________________
Live to play another day.

Last edited by thaskalos; 03-10-2018 at 03:34 AM.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 03:32 AM   #257
DGroundhog
Journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom View Post
Why would late money be smarter (or more accurate) than other money.

My issue is more to do with disproportionate betting in the final minute and nothing to do with favorite or any price on the board.

A horse who is sitting at 12-1 on the board for all of the wagering that goes off at 6-1 at post when a ton of money comes through on him in the final click is concerning to me. Happens way, way, way too much for what would be logical to an average IQ person. The amount of time this late "rush" of money is accurate defies what is normal in betting historically.

Saying it another way, if favorites win 35% but I told you that the horse getting the most proportionate money in the final click is winning 45% of the time, would that concern you? (By proportionate I mean the overall percentage of money they have wagered on them in the final click).
The advent of computer aided betting is the reason disproportionate betting should occur. What is surprising to me is I have books that are 20 years old and the same 35% figure is cited. I would have expected that figure to rise significantly.

Late money is a significant factor. A lot of typical bettors wait watching their horse fluctuate between 7/2 and 3-1 before deciding to place their bet. Don't ask me why, it's always been that way as far as I can tell.

Given the advent of computer aided betting (serious analysis of worth vs risk returns) I would venture to guess that maybe there is no significant advantage to the computer aided late bettors vs historical anaylsis against 'sharps'.

A payout analysis would probably be a better indicator of if there was an edge being taken advantage of. Are winning favorites paying out MORE or LESS now? Does that offer value to people playing against favorites?
DGroundhog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 03:40 AM   #258
DGroundhog
Journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I think the widespread popularity of online poker and fantasy sports proves conclusively that the "younger fans" aren't just interested in the mindless games like the slots and the lottery. The young people of today are willing to seriously apply themselves towards a challenging form of "gambling"...assuming that they find such a game APPEALING. The fact that the younger population currently shuns this game is a testament to their gambling-intelligence and maturity...IMO. Horse racing, in it's current form, isn't a game that's worth serious study and time-commitment. The young people's efforts are better served elsewhere.
A valid point - but how many tracks do you know of that offer viewing of all NFL games and maybe a fantasy football contest of any sort?

There are many racetracks that don't race a whole lot during a good chunk of the football season. How many of them put that unused space to good use trying to lure new fans?

IMO, it is a largely untapped resource of potential new fans. I'm a bit different and don't like a crowded sports bar, so a wide open track with places to get away from a crowd a bit and still watch the games would be appealing to me. Almost nobody tries this sort of thing.

Poker is a different animal unless they have that venue available to them, and if they do - then horse racing is a legitimate afterthought.

Last edited by DGroundhog; 03-10-2018 at 03:41 AM.
DGroundhog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 03:54 AM   #259
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
A valid point - but how many tracks do you know of that offer viewing of all NFL games and maybe a fantasy football contest of any sort?

There are many racetracks that don't race a whole lot during a good chunk of the football season. How many of them put that unused space to good use trying to lure new fans?

IMO, it is a largely untapped resource of potential new fans. I'm a bit different and don't like a crowded sports bar, so a wide open track with places to get away from a crowd a bit and still watch the games would be appealing to me. Almost nobody tries this sort of thing.

Poker is a different animal unless they have that venue available to them, and if they do - then horse racing is a legitimate afterthought.
It goes back to what some of us here have been saying about the incompetence of those who are in charge of this game. They horse racing industry sees that the existing fans are leaving this game in droves, but no real effort is made to present this game in a more "appealing" way to the younger generation...who have other gambling options available to them.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 04:06 AM   #260
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
It goes back to what some of us here have been saying about the incompetence of those who are in charge of this game. They horse racing industry sees that the existing fans are leaving this game in droves, but no real effort is made to present this game in a more "appealing" way to the younger generation...who have other gambling options available to them.
Here is a novel idea...just so you don't think that I am all "whine" and no solution:

Many racetracks are flush with casino-generated profits, which have been used to push purses in some racing jurisdictions to the stratosphere...a technique that has done NOTHING to improve the game in any meaningful way. What if these tracks used some of that money to fund a weekly in-house handicapping tournament...with a generous prize-pool. They have the money, but they choose to hand it over to the trainers...without giving a DIME back to their much-maligned fans. Don't you think that a weekly in-house handicapping tournament with a serious prize-pool would generate some interest in those ghost-towns that our racetracks have become? Didn't the poker tournaments resurrect POKER...which had died long ago?

You rekindle people's interest with the tournaments, and then they'll come back for the "live action"...just as they've done with poker.
__________________
Live to play another day.

Last edited by thaskalos; 03-10-2018 at 04:11 AM.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 04:43 AM   #261
DGroundhog
Journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Here is a novel idea...just so you don't think that I am all "whine" and no solution:

Many racetracks are flush with casino-generated profits, which have been used to push purses in some racing jurisdictions to the stratosphere...a technique that has done NOTHING to improve the game in any meaningful way. What if these tracks used some of that money to fund a weekly in-house handicapping tournament...with a generous prize-pool. They have the money, but they choose to hand it over to the trainers...without giving a DIME back to their much-maligned fans. Don't you think that a weekly in-house handicapping tournament with a serious prize-pool would generate some interest in those ghost-towns that our racetracks have become? Didn't the poker tournaments resurrect POKER...which had died long ago?

You rekindle people's interest with the tournaments, and then they'll come back for the "live action"...just as they've done with poker.
Have the purses increased from those racetracks? A case by case basis might leave room for debate, but tracks committed to racing should have increased purses, increased the quality of racing, increased the quality of breeding, etc. That is where the monies are focused. Developing the thoroughbred racing and breeding industries.

A sad fact, most tracks that gain some additional form of wagering, whether it be slots or a card club, racing quickly becomes a second class citizen in their own venue. Often they are now bought up by larger gaming conglomerates, and there is ALWAYS a financial separation and analysis that nearly always show horse racing are a liability, not an asset. At best they turn a mild profit and are allowed to continue until a sufficient number of politicians are bought off to allow decoupling. Then the actual racing surface and backside can be sold off to develop a parking lot or strip mall, whichever is deemed more profitable.

AlsoEligible brought up a point that should be considered a key point - sports betting. West Virginia just approved it. Pennsylvania and others may be next. What happens next and how racing can compete or coexist with it may dictate what happens to many tracks around the country.
DGroundhog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 04:47 AM   #262
DGroundhog
Journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Here is a novel idea...just so you don't think that I am all "whine" and no solution:

Many racetracks are flush with casino-generated profits, which have been used to push purses in some racing jurisdictions to the stratosphere...a technique that has done NOTHING to improve the game in any meaningful way. What if these tracks used some of that money to fund a weekly in-house handicapping tournament...with a generous prize-pool. They have the money, but they choose to hand it over to the trainers...without giving a DIME back to their much-maligned fans. Don't you think that a weekly in-house handicapping tournament with a serious prize-pool would generate some interest in those ghost-towns that our racetracks have become? Didn't the poker tournaments resurrect POKER...which had died long ago?

You rekindle people's interest with the tournaments, and then they'll come back for the "live action"...just as they've done with poker.
Let's put it this way, you own the Levi's brand. Your results show that selling jeans is marginally profitable and more likely a financial liability, but there is huge profit to be made in selling shirts.

What do you do? Do you continue to sell jeans, or do you focus your market on shirts?
DGroundhog is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 04:58 AM   #263
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
Let's put it this way, you own the Levi's brand. Your results show that selling jeans is marginally profitable and more likely a financial liability, but there is huge profit to be made in selling shirts.

What do you do? Do you continue to sell jeans, or do you focus your market on shirts?
You keep selling your ultra-profitable shirts...but you also spend a little cash in an effort to improve your jeans-selling business. In business...when you stagnate, you DIE. A "marginally profitable" business sinks into dire straits when it's ignored. You are in the CLOTHING business...so, why not sell jeans AND shirts?
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 05:07 AM   #264
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
Have the purses increased from those racetracks? A case by case basis might leave room for debate, but tracks committed to racing should have increased purses, increased the quality of racing, increased the quality of breeding, etc. That is where the monies are focused. Developing the thoroughbred racing and breeding industries.

A sad fact, most tracks that gain some additional form of wagering, whether it be slots or a card club, racing quickly becomes a second class citizen in their own venue. Often they are now bought up by larger gaming conglomerates, and there is ALWAYS a financial separation and analysis that nearly always show horse racing are a liability, not an asset. At best they turn a mild profit and are allowed to continue until a sufficient number of politicians are bought off to allow decoupling. Then the actual racing surface and backside can be sold off to develop a parking lot or strip mall, whichever is deemed more profitable.

AlsoEligible brought up a point that should be considered a key point - sports betting. West Virginia just approved it. Pennsylvania and others may be next. What happens next and how racing can compete or coexist with it may dictate what happens to many tracks around the country.
You say this NOW...but before, you were telling us that we shouldn't insult the tracks, because they treat us horseplayers with "respect"...they "listen to our complaints"...and they "address them". And now you say that the racetracks are looking to "sell us out". Is that the "respect", and the "appeasement", that you previously meant?
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 07:27 AM   #265
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,653
if these places ultimately are allowed to book sports its going to be interesting to see how they treat their customers in that venture. if they treat them the same way they treat horse players they won't do any business.

Churchill Downs bought Presque Isles so that they can be licensed for sports gambling and be able to accept wagers online.

i really wonder what gives a race track the right to book sports and i can't get a license to do it in a sports bar?
lamboguy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 09:22 AM   #266
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
You see different people running the casinos than those running the racing. I think the reason is obvious.
With casinos popping up all over nowadays, you will see the effects of competition.

The customer is NOT always right, but he is always the customer.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 11:37 AM   #267
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Forcing the offtrack wagering sites to close early is one way to help. It's true in NY the OTBs did close at 2 minutes to post back when I played fulltime in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Most (all?) NY OTB is gone as far as I know but the rule could apply to ADWs. I wouldn't like it so much because I haven't set foot on track in almost 20 years and it's just up the street from me.

For all I know that was one of the keys to the odds being as stable as they were in those days. There were last minute odds drops but it was much less frequent. Without those OTB windows closing early who knows, I might not have even been a consistent winner every year. You still had to be a very good handicapper and be disciplined with your wagering but it was essentially a 10% ROI every year that I could count on.

People say the final odds are more accurate now, maybe, maybe not. You can back-test for profits quite easily over thousands of races and I'm not sure you could do that if the odds were so good. However back-testing is fixed odds wagering essentially. Good luck getting that to apply in the real world unless you have more current odds than the rank and file and can bet later than they do which is what I suspect is the case for some of the highest rollers offshore or wherever they may be.

It's been mentioned on here that we have far flung sites all over the globe which take their sweet time getting their money reporting into the US pools. That should change. The amount of time it takes them to report should be how many minutes their pools close early. If they want to start betting closer to zero MTP then they'll have to invest in a better network infrastructure.

Another thing that could be considered is taking away rebates for bets made after X minutes to post, say 5 minutes or whatever. That would force the 'whales' to wager early and stabilize the pools. You could even consider paying anyone (not just big players) a 10% payoff bonus for 'early bird' bets placed before 10 minutes to post.

Things like that might help matters but personally as a straight win bettor I would like to see exchange wagering brought into NY before I get serious about wagering again.

If someone younger came to me and asked for my advice about playing it seriously today I'd suggest staying away until things change. If you're ok with the drug issues in the US game then consider moving to NJ for the Betfair exchange. If you aren't ok with the drug issues look into some offshore options. HK / UK racing, anything like that is going to have more potential upside for your ROI than what we have now.

Recently I web scraped a few months worth of tote data from all of the thoroughbred tracks but haven't had the time to study it in-depth much. From the numbers I've looked at briefly WO appears to have the most stable win pool from zero to final and MNR the least.

If you put me under the gun and said I had to bet professionally again, being a flat bettor I'd probably be looking to focus on a track or tracks like Woodbine, Del Mar, Tampa, Belmont, where the win pools are changing the least from zero to final.

If those tracks still have too much volatility for you then you're pretty much looking at horizontals like the pick 4's, 5's etc, which granted are now more attractive with the new tax laws, however you're still going to be betting blind as far as the rewards go. I suppose with good common sense to only get involved whenever there's a false favorite... maybe.

Anyway, good luck if you play. I'll remain on-hold.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 12:42 PM   #268
Pensacola Pete
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
I'm against closing betting before the gate opens. They tried that before, and it got hooted down.

What they need to do is get their totalizator system out of the 1940's and upgrade it across the board: host tracks, hubs, simulcasts, ADW's, etc. We have the technology to have updated totals, including bets from all over the world, available to end users within one second of "STOP" being sent. It isn't done because it costs money.

One simple solution is: Give end-sites, such as a simulcast center, ADW, hub in another country, etc. two choices:

1) The end site invests in the technology and/or software to instantly send all bets at OFF, so that they're in the system immediately after the STOP signal is sent.

2) For sites that can't do this or that refuse to do it, the hub will close betting at the time the first horse loads into the gate, the first dog loads into the box, or the first horse reaches the starting gate (standardbreds).

Either way, there are updated odds within a second after the OFF/STOP and no more magical changes at the eighth pole. Also, sites that don't upgrade will lose customers to sites that do, which will get the slow-pokes to join in a hurry (or lose business).

Of course, it's not as simple as throwing a switch. The system needs to be brought online in stages. It's probably a two-year process. Meanwhile, we can watch yet another sustained horse surprise everybody by getting to an easy lead at 12-1 and be 4-1 when it crosses the wire.
Pensacola Pete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 01:59 PM   #269
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Here is the reality.

From a fairness perspective, nobody betting on a computer should be placing bets right before the gates open. That is an invitation to pool manipulation.

But from a handle perspective, I bet that actually implementing that reform would take a meaningful bite out of handle, because it is obvious these people are betting enough to shift the odds very late when there is already a lot of money in the pools. So it will never happen.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-10-2018, 05:57 PM   #270
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Here is the reality.

From a fairness perspective, nobody betting on a computer should be placing bets right before the gates open. That is an invitation to pool manipulation.

But from a handle perspective, I bet that actually implementing that reform would take a meaningful bite out of handle, because it is obvious these people are betting enough to shift the odds very late when there is already a lot of money in the pools. So it will never happen.
Not sure how that qualifies as manipulation. I'd only classify a cancelled bet as such.

Anyone is entitled to bet as late as they want, what exactly is the issue with that ? Granted, the computer based players can get much bigger bets in at the last second (10,000 to win for instance) and you might have trouble doing that at the window, but something tells me few or none of you are ever going to need that anyway.

If folks aren't happy with the parimutuel system , they should demand nationwide Betfair access, and bet at fixed odds among themselves.
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:25 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.