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Old 04-17-2014, 06:53 PM   #1
Track Phantom
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EVD is as random as they get

Winner of the 1st on 4-17-14.

I'm all for prices but not when they look like this.

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Old 04-17-2014, 10:34 PM   #2
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Maybe they were just waiting until they got a good price

Whatever happened between Jan. 31 and now worked for them. I guess that drop from maiden $10K at DED to $7,500 at EVD is a steep one. Plus, first time going 7F. Damn, wish I'd seen all this before he ran .
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Old 04-17-2014, 10:40 PM   #3
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Well, that was a smoking half mile comeback workout compared to the others pre-debut
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Old 04-17-2014, 10:50 PM   #4
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(1) valento, you're a little intense sometimes but still one of my favorite posters here... but we're on PACE advantage, so where are the horse's moss pace figures?

(2) evd is the kind of outhouse where it's a good play to wait for a Sammy breaux horse that looks like crap but is maybe getting some mid level betting action. you might have the horse 15-1, 20-1 + but he opens at 3-1 and drifts up to 5-1 or 6-1. not really my style of play, but when in Louisiana....
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Old 04-17-2014, 10:52 PM   #5
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Thanks for the post. I will put Ronnie Averett on my trainer watch list. He's now 2 for 2 at EVD, and looks like he's found a new vet.............
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:09 AM   #6
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As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.
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Old 04-18-2014, 10:57 AM   #7
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i don't typically yell and scream "fix" when i can't understand a result,
BUT i will only play that track when i am bored, i play my favourite numbers and i am really happy when they are long odds.
I can not cap there
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Old 04-18-2014, 11:00 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valento
Winner of the 1st on 4-17-14.

I'm all for prices but not when they look like this.

Based on the PP's, the horse looks pretty consistent to me.

La. Bred 7.5k Mdns. Nuff said
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:08 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.

That's a stretch for a horse who, in 3 races, beat just one horse collectively.
Nothing here would lead me to bet this horse, even with someone else's money.
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:19 PM   #10
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$160 is an underlay on that horse in Evangeline. the price should have been about 830-1 by my calculations. horses that have that type of form win once a twice a year at any track. but you will lose a lot of money chasing them.
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Old 04-18-2014, 12:37 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wisconsin
That's a stretch for a horse who, in 3 races, beat just one horse collectively.
Nothing here would lead me to bet this horse, even with someone else's money.
I didn't say I would have bet the horse, but being a 3 yo, and having the good workout on an off track, etc., it's not too surprising that the horse "woke up" between its last race and this one, especially at EvD where, like DeD, you have to look at things that you might not at other tracks. This result is not unusual at smaller tracks like this, and one of the reasons I choose to play them.
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Old 04-18-2014, 04:43 PM   #12
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Coming off a triple top - he had to improve.
Can't beat those Beyer bagels.
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Old 04-18-2014, 05:57 PM   #13
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Old 04-18-2014, 08:15 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sandpit
Maybe they were just waiting until they got a good price

Whatever happened between Jan. 31 and now worked for them. I guess that drop from maiden $10K at DED to $7,500 at EVD is a steep one. Plus, first time going 7F. Damn, wish I'd seen all this before he ran .

He ran somewhat closer to the pace last out...but still..

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Old 04-18-2014, 08:54 PM   #15
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The ultimate debate in horse racing and the question that we always need to answer is this.

Can a horse who "cant win" actually win?

This means, no matter how bad a horse looks, if it wins, there was something within its body, legs and heart, that gave it enough talent to win some race at some track.

The question isn't "how did this horse win" its more of "what did i miss".

If you win, you were good enough to win by definition, usually, when this happens, we have overrated the competition...if a horse who looks horrendous on paper wins, the horse's he beat, who probably looked better, were in fact, not....the key was just to find a way to know this before the race and if you don't find a way to know it before the race, find a way to figure it out AFTER so you're better prepared next time.
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