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Old 12-03-2017, 06:33 PM   #1
mountainman
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Stupid Pools

Is it only MY impression, or are the Mahoning players way, way, behind the curve?? 4/5 on chalks that should be 1/2..7/2 on natural 2-1 shots..18-1 on runners with VERY real chances?? Any skilled handicapper not focusing on this track is missing out. Bigtime. The place is a freakin' ATM machine.

I have never encountered anything like it.

Last edited by mountainman; 12-03-2017 at 06:35 PM.
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Old 12-03-2017, 07:37 PM   #2
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I've seen some good value there.

some observations:

Coupled Entries are usually extremely overbet. Almost to the point of either tossing them or passing the race.

Pick-3's have paid less than I expected. (Sample size probably thrown off by the time I used a to complete good capping in the previous races ).

Exactas have been better than I expected.

Post positions are largely ignored.

Finish order/literal form seems to be overrated.
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Old 12-03-2017, 09:04 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
I've seen some good value there.

some observations:

Coupled Entries are usually extremely overbet. Almost to the point of either tossing them or passing the race.

Pick-3's have paid less than I expected. (Sample size probably thrown off by the time I used a to complete good capping in the previous races ).

Exactas have been better than I expected.

Post positions are largely ignored.

Finish order/literal form seems to be overrated.
Pace scenario seems underbet to me. And I don't think the pools, in general, are very sharp at detecting a bias..or non-bias, for that matter. Nor do I get the impression that the surface's intrinsic nature is much understood by Mahoning bettors. I also think that early imbalances in the win pool rarely get completely corrected.

The subtle aspects of strategy and running style are just not accounted for, either. Just a much-less than sophisticated bunch of bettors. That's my general observation. There ARE more than occasional signs on the tote that somebody has down some homework-but those somebodies aren't really that sharp or inspired.
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Old 12-04-2017, 11:18 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Is it only MY impression, or are the Mahoning players way, way, behind the curve?? 4/5 on chalks that should be 1/2..7/2 on natural 2-1 shots..18-1 on runners with VERY real chances?? Any skilled handicapper not focusing on this track is missing out. Bigtime. The place is a freakin' ATM machine.

I have never encountered anything like it.
My quick take on this:

Horses are being bet down from sometimes generous Morning Lines. (John McGary got to know the place well and was spot on 99% of the time IMO. He's greatly missed here).

Woodbine shippers are over-bet. Some like the surface, many don't.

Indiana Grand shippers are overlooked. No matter what their form shows, many wake up here at double digit odds.

I believe horses that ran at Mountaineer in their previous race has won at most 3 times at MVR in their next race.

The local tip-sheet, The Postman's Picks has benefited from decent weather and a consistent surface. His top pick has won 64 of 167 races (38%). His 2nd choice has won another 36 for a total of 59.8% for the meet so far. (Shameless plug)

RR
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Old 12-04-2017, 12:44 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
My quick take on this:

Horses are being bet down from sometimes generous Morning Lines. (John McGary got to know the place well and was spot on 99% of the time IMO. He's greatly missed here).

Woodbine shippers are over-bet. Some like the surface, many don't.

Indiana Grand shippers are overlooked. No matter what their form shows, many wake up here at double digit odds.

I believe horses that ran at Mountaineer in their previous race has won at most 3 times at MVR in their next race.

The local tip-sheet, The Postman's Picks has benefited from decent weather and a consistent surface. His top pick has won 64 of 167 races (38%). His 2nd choice has won another 36 for a total of 59.8% for the meet so far. (Shameless plug)

RR
Hi, Ron, great to hear from you. And good job with your tip sheet.

With the Woodbine horses, much of it hinges on the barn and psychology of why they are there. Canadian outfits invading this region are sometimes tuff to gauge, since most of them are in cahoots north of the border, and send horses south as some sort of "community pool." And program trainers (hidden ownership) runs amok. Even the Canadian runners that exhibit good form at Mvr should be handled with care, since lots of them are there to be sold or unloaded.

As to the Indy horses, spot on. They are much better than players assume. But the ones I've seen win were exploiting hideous fields-low condition races-at Mvr. That horse in the last race Wed is an example.

As to the morning line, I don't even glance at it. Nor would it remotely affect any good handicapper's notion of value.

How is Dinoto doing as a steward up there?? She's part of my crew at Mnr, and I was overjoyed when she got the job.

Last edited by mountainman; 12-04-2017 at 12:47 PM.
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:28 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Is it only MY impression, or are the Mahoning players way, way, behind the curve?? 4/5 on chalks that should be 1/2..7/2 on natural 2-1 shots..18-1 on runners with VERY real chances?? Any skilled handicapper not focusing on this track is missing out. Bigtime. The place is a freakin' ATM machine.

I have never encountered anything like it.
Okay MM, I am going to tune in today and even post m bets in the handicapping section to embaress myself.

As you know I took a mountaineer break after a particularly unfortunate race and have concentrated on harness.Looking for a winter tbred track. Been messing with Tampa but you peaked my Mahoning interest. Not going to start actual betting until I see some patterns. That is when I will stop posting selections.

Thanks for the tip ( I Think)
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:37 PM   #7
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first race today

somebody has to win...


2) offers value, 9/2 last time in that slow-paced key-race that held together.

5) may well have issues, but I respect the trainer enough to include.

7) not in love, but can't leave him out

8) i'll reluctantly give a 2nd try


----
lean-against toss

1a) is he really 7/2 early w/out players 'anchoring' to his ml?

6) good trip in the Nov 1st key race. He's half decent, but i was kinda hoping/expecting that he'd be taking more money. Hopefully the board 'corrects' late, and I get better price on the 2,8
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:42 PM   #8
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Race 1
Going with the
#1a firster...faily well bred. Bad field and looks great on the track
#7 is beginning to show ratty tendencies but getting closer
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:48 PM   #9
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just going to box the 2567

wanted the 8, but he does not appeal on track

1a should be enough underlay to skip being fancy about the 6
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:55 PM   #10
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man... that was a bad race / default winner

4 didn't run horribly in the slow paced race on 11/1, but I still can't see him running 2nd.
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Old 12-04-2017, 02:11 PM   #11
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Race 2 Im liking 4 best....has not proven to be as bad as the other two logical choices the 1-5.
P3 145/127/17
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:08 PM   #12
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6th race

Street Factor is no world beater. He ran a solid race last time. I could see him running another solid race, or being exposed a bit. He's 3-1 as I type this, so I hope he takes more money late.

Barney Come Home doesn't have much in the stretch. I'd like him to be a power-forward and keep the 9 wide (please don't be a fullback and clear a path for the 9!).


boxing the 2,3,4,5 exacta and playing a 2345 over 234589 for insanity insurance.
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:20 PM   #13
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file me under dumb money
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Old 12-04-2017, 05:47 PM   #14
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hi guys..just noticed your input....bet four races today...tanked on the Cowan's firster in the opener (bred on the bottom to win at first asking), and the 7-horse, Maxine, in the 4th ( liked the price and mistakenly thought she could cool her speed-jets a little and adapt to what had to be a torrid pace).......................did connect hard on Awesome Palace ( $19.60) in the 2nd (excused her latest over wet track she detested, and liked the quick improvement on heels of most recent change of trainers..also saw her potentially in control of sluggish field, and loved her two-back start when competitive in much stronger field)...also nailed I'mluckysgirl ($7.00), whom I rated a near -lock in the 7th......incidentally, it was my impression that aside from a brutal trip, Fadlovich intentionally reserved U and Tequila off the pace today..
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Old 12-04-2017, 06:47 PM   #15
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Is it only MY impression, or are the Mahoning players way, way, behind the curve?? 4/5 on chalks that should be 1/2..7/2 on natural 2-1 shots..18-1 on runners with VERY real chances?? Any skilled handicapper not focusing on this track is missing out. Bigtime. The place is a freakin' ATM machine.

I have never encountered anything like it.
At MVR, favorites are winning at an exceptionally high rate AND they are returning FAR more than usual. BUT, it could be that you are uncovering some tremendous overlays and for YOU, Mahoning is awesome. Of course, if we are to be successful, the crowd is going to have to be "behind the curve"; when we are unsuccessful it is US that is behind the curve. Still, I don't think the assertion that MVR bettors are uninformed is true at all. If so, favorites wouldn't be doing so well.

According to my records, IND shippers are 4 for 43, returning about $1.00 for every $1.00 bet. One horse was 20-1 or so. Can't hang my hat on these types.

Woodbine shippers are 2/9...sample size too small still.

Last edited by Franco Santiago; 12-04-2017 at 06:50 PM.
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