Angles that a lot of longshots have going for them

[dav4463]

What are some things you look for in a longshot? I'm talking 9-1 and higher longshots. I have a few that I've noticed over the years that use the Beyer figures. What are some other angles that others use to sniff out these 9-1+ (preferably higher even) longshot horses who frequently win or place?

There was one on April 8 at Santa Anita (I think it was Race 4)that showed her two best races in her pp's on turf at one mile (today's exact distance). Her figures were very competitive, the fave had only run one turf route and ran poorly. There were two horses that showed strong races at today's distance and surface. One of them won and paid $119.00....not meaning to redboard, but the horse was easily a top three contender in this race.

That's an example of one angle with the Beyers...horse is one of the top two in last ten races at today's surface and distance.

Another one is the horse who has a couple of bad races...but has one or two of the top three Beyers in the race....going back as far as ten races.

Another one with the Beyers is to find the horse's best two races.......and see if the jockey that was on the horse then is on the horse today. That is a positive jockey switch to a jock who got the most out of this horse.

I also like a horse who was improving his Beyers and then in his last race jumped in class and ran a terrible race. Then the horse drops down to just above the class level of his next to last race.

Using Last Race Beyer only..... Look at tote board at 3 MTP. Consider only 9-1 and up horses. See if there is one who has a Last Race Beyer within 8 points of the Best Last Race Beyer horse. If you find only one or two....possible play.

Another longshot angle I've seen is a shipper from a (lesser) track going to a bigger track, but the figures suggest he belongs in the race. I've seen quite a few Sunland shippers get ignored at Lone Star Park for example. I know there are plenty others like that at other tracks.

Another ignored horse is when an also-eligible gets in a race. A lot of people ignore this horse. Take a second look!

How about a horse that was barely beaten by the fave or second choice recently and this fave or second choice is going off at 6/5 or 2/1....and the just barely beaten horse is at 9/1....happens a lot! Barely beaten means he almost won!

[phattty]

this one doesn't present itself very often...

one of local leading trainers...

coming off dull looking performance

staying at same distance

returning fairly quickly

moving UP in tag

boxcars

[Robert Goren]

A router who was dropped in claiming price and was sprinting in last start. Back up in claiming price and back to a route today. There are trainers who do this all the time with success. I am not sure it shows a profit if you bet it everytime, but if you pick your spots it comes up with some nice winners.

[WaHoo]

a couple angles i like and i want 9:1 or higher odds..

In the last race or second race back, in lenghts no further than 4 1/2 lenghts back and doesn't run closer than 2 1/2 lenghts of leader and finishes 4th or 5th.

Maidens I like PGL (postion, gain and lenghts) in last race
from the 1st call to finish must pass 3 horses and gain 6 lenghts, preferred out of money finish.

[Ocala Mike]

Here's an angle (or system) that goes back at least 60 years, and it still latches on to big prices today. I learned it from my father, who never failed to back a horse because its odds were too high:

1. Last 3 races must be for higher claiming price or class than today.
2. Horse must have run OUT OF THE MONEY in each of last 3 races, or not better than SHOW in just one of them.
3. Horse must have WON one of its prior 3 races (before the bad form cycle) OR show a 1/3 in the money record for this year and last (from summary box).
4. Horse must have started within last 30 days.

Longshot city!


Ocala Mike

[Tape Reader]

<ML at approximately 10 MTP and >ML at PT. Take it to the bank.

[MaTH716]

I like when a horse debuts on an off track and runs terribly, then in his/her second start catches a fast track. Many times these horses get overlooked based on their prior poor performance and improve vastly between having a race under their belts and now running on a fast track.

[fmolf]

this just happened today at turf paradise in the 6th...seemingly oof form horse with back class as defined by earnings per start.This horse the # 5 had almost double the per race earnings of his closest competitor and payed $27.00.....I have found other winners over the years like this,this was a real longshot because his form was so terrible.usually this angle finds horses in the 5/1...6/1 range.

[Irish Boy]

One angle that's worked for me is betting on horses that are only 50-1 or better. It almost never works but 100% of them are longshots, so percentage-wise it does perfectly.

[fmolf]

here are two claiming angles i like to play......the first is any horse claimed by a top tier claiming trainer or any trainer with good first after the claim record(18% or higher)...the second is bet any horse 8ys old or older that has been claimed by top claiming trainer or one with good first after the claim record

[windstone]

every time a shot hits the board or wins i always go back and look to see what i can pick up on that i didn't notice before the race. one of the things that comes up a lot when i can see nothing else in the horses pp is the owner and trainer are one in the same.

[trackcat]

I posted an angle play when I joined this forum. I posted it as Angle Play in the disscusion forum. It's called spots and blots. For me it has been a good angle play, but like everything else in life its not going to hit all the time but when it does it more than makes up for the losses. I have hit 2 $100.00 plus win tickets with it. Payoffs have ranged mostly in the 5/1 to 20/1 range. As for keeping records on the play I am on the plus side for the year so far. It also seems to work best with single qualifiers in a race.

[trackcat]

David: I see you look for angle plays. I like playing them also. I left a thread a couple of days ago on your topic. Today (monday) the first race at MNR had a single qualifier and he came through at 40.40 18.00 13.40. The 2nd race also had a single qualifier, he didn't win but he made it for show for 9.20. I'm not trying to push this angle on people, just enjoy the forum and have passed this angle along for players to enjoy. Best of luck to you.

Trackcat

[Marlin]

Originally Posted by phattty

this one doesn't present itself very often...

one of local leading trainers...

coming off dull looking performance

staying at same distance

returning fairly quickly

moving UP in tag

boxcars

Similar angle to the filly that won the Ashland. After getting killed in the Bourbonette they race her right back in the G1 Ashland. She paid $99. Her presence in the race confounded me and luckily forced me to use her.

[trackcat]

sometimes the force is with us...congradulations