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Old 10-24-2021, 09:38 AM   #46
burnsy
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Originally Posted by taxicab View Post
Yup,the likely chalk.
I hope all that are in line to make the race show up,it's looking like a solid betting heat.
I'm thinking Ginobili & Plainsman.
You can make a case for quite a few......strong edition.
Agreed, Life Is Good is listed as heavy chalk on some websites. There’s some good, experienced horses in that line up. I’ll be looking to beat that horse at a mile.
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Old 10-24-2021, 09:49 AM   #47
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One thing that might be worth considering, especially watching after the first day, is the east to west ship.

Leaving out the synth period where the eastern dirt horses were at a disadvantage, I’ve always still been a little more skeptical of the NY to CA dirt ship than the CA to NY dirt ship unless the horse was acclimated. But the surfaces have changes so much over time it might be different.
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Old 10-24-2021, 10:02 AM   #48
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Yes. Some of them were on the same day. Shirreffs was way to careful IMO
I suspect he knew she wasn’t the same horse at 6 that she was at 5 and especially at 4. She probably had some minor things going on. I know he didn’t ask her for much in any of her training that entire year and then suddenly just prior to the Classic he started working her much faster and cranked up for one last big effort. I’ve seen that move with a few of his other horses over the years. That’s probably why he chose not to go to Saratoga also. He just wanted to make it to the end of the year with a fresh horse for one last big effort because that’s all she may have had left.
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Old 10-24-2021, 10:55 AM   #49
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One thing that might be worth considering, especially watching after the first day, is the east to west ship.

Leaving out the synth period where the eastern dirt horses were at a disadvantage, I’ve always still been a little more skeptical of the NY to CA dirt ship than the CA to NY dirt ship unless the horse was acclimated. But the surfaces have changes so much over time it might be different.
That’s another thing I’m at odds with and agree completely. The other factor is I don’t bet there at all anymore. No clue. So I gotta watch the early races too. Although, these dirt tracks are jacked up on these days like 9 out of 10 times. You really gotta worry about horses on an easy or uncontested lead more years than less. Plus, when the jocks cooperate with that it becomes a one track deal. Figure that out early and you’ll have a few wins by the end.
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Old 10-24-2021, 11:14 AM   #50
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That’s another thing I’m at odds with and agree completely. The other factor is I don’t bet there at all anymore. No clue. So I gotta watch the early races too. Although, these dirt tracks are jacked up on these days like 9 out of 10 times. You really gotta worry about horses on an easy or uncontested lead more years than less. Plus, when the jocks cooperate with that it becomes a one track deal. Figure that out early and you’ll have a few wins by the end.
Over the years, I've heard about so many souped up tracks on big days and I bought in. I'm not sure I believe it any more. Sure, the tracks are maintained exquisitely on the big days. But you also have the best horses running. And the best horses are going to run fast times, and they also tend to be fast the whole race, which includes having early speed.
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Old 10-24-2021, 04:53 PM   #51
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Question P5 takeout rate (Breeders Cup rates?)

Hey, old chart - I'm seeing 14% P5 ?
(& 23.68% P6, P4)

however, on Twitter - P5 23.68%?




Chart designation says 14% for 'Del Mar'.

Is there a different 'Breeders Cup' takeout rates menu?


also 14% seems a touch low (nice) but I don't know if it was a temporary measure; Industry standard seems "15%" for major offerings.

thx
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Old 10-25-2021, 01:29 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
One thing that might be worth considering, especially watching after the first day, is the east to west ship.

Leaving out the synth period where the eastern dirt horses were at a disadvantage, I’ve always still been a little more skeptical of the NY to CA dirt ship than the CA to NY dirt ship unless the horse was acclimated. But the surfaces have changes so much over time it might be different.
East coast horses were at a disadvantage on the CA synthetics?

Einstein (BRZ) - Big Cap
Cowboy Cal - San Pasqual, Strub
Go Between - Pacific Classic, Sunshine Millions
Richard's Kid - Pacific Classic
Student Council - Pacific Classic
Dullahan - Pacific Classic
Pioneerof the Nile - Hollywood Futurity
Violence - Hollywood Futurity
Gayego - Ancient Title
In Summation - Bing Crosby, Palos Verdes, El Conejo
Striking Dancer - La Canada
Amen Hallelujah - Santa Ynez
Country Star - Hollywood Starlet
Laragh - Hollywood Starlet
Pure Fun - Hollywood Starlet
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Old 10-25-2021, 08:57 AM   #53
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East coast horses were at a disadvantage on the CA synthetics?

Einstein (BRZ) - Big Cap
Cowboy Cal - San Pasqual, Strub
Go Between - Pacific Classic, Sunshine Millions
Richard's Kid - Pacific Classic
Student Council - Pacific Classic
Dullahan - Pacific Classic
Pioneerof the Nile - Hollywood Futurity
Violence - Hollywood Futurity
Gayego - Ancient Title
In Summation - Bing Crosby, Palos Verdes, El Conejo
Striking Dancer - La Canada
Amen Hallelujah - Santa Ynez
Country Star - Hollywood Starlet
Laragh - Hollywood Starlet
Pure Fun - Hollywood Starlet
Some of those horses were stabled out there and worked out there. A few had some turf experience and made the transition. They ran on synth by choice because the trainer thought they'd like it or had already proved they liked it.

I'm talking about Breeder's Cup quality dirt horses that never trained or ran on synth and only went out west because it was the BC. If they had a choice they'd never run on synthetic.
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Old 10-25-2021, 10:26 AM   #54
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Old 10-25-2021, 10:37 AM   #55
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Old 10-25-2021, 01:42 PM   #56
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Old 10-27-2021, 11:25 AM   #57
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Old 10-28-2021, 09:53 AM   #58
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Ghostzapper destroyed one of the best BC Classic fields ever assembled and had never been beyond a mile and an eighth prior.
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Old 10-28-2021, 05:42 PM   #59
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Analysis: Gamine's smaller win margins, speed figures

https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...ed_figures_123
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Old 10-28-2021, 06:36 PM   #60
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Analysis: Gamine's smaller win margins, speed figures

https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...ed_figures_123
Slow paces are often problematical. They sometimes carry cheap speeds to faster than expected final time figures but hold quality horses back. Very lightly raced horses are especially problematical because you don't have a record to analyze to help figure out what you are dealing with. Gamine is tricky because she hasn't looked as good visually while running slower than last year. I lean towards her not being quite as good as last year, but she may still be good enough to win anyway.
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