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Old 08-27-2021, 10:24 AM   #1
classhandicapper
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Jackie’s Warrior vs. Life Is Good

This is one of the more interesting matchups on a great Travers card.

It reminds me a bit of Serengeti Empress vs. Gamine. Serengeti Empress seemed like the much faster horse early but Gamine had the faster final time figures coming in. So the question was what would happen when Gamine was forced to chase a much faster horse for the first time.

Jackie’s Warrior is as fast as they come early, but Life Is Good put up some very serious final time figures months ago and could be even better now with several months of development.

What happens when he chases Jackie’s Warrior?

Will he come back even better or is this too tough a spot off the bench for a new trainer?

Will he be so sharp off he layoff that they go at it so hard they set it up for someone else? There are some other very good up and coming sprinters in that field.

I’m not sure it’s the best betting race unless you are going to try to beat both, but it’s a great race.
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Old 08-27-2021, 12:28 PM   #2
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On paper, at least, Life is Good will not be chasing. Eye to eye, head to head. Yes, Jackie's Warrior is quick. But I can't help but seeing that 21:4 opening fraction in LIG's only sprint. Sub :22 and :44:2 is a real possible start. Both will be tested, and it should be fun to watch.
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Old 08-27-2021, 01:00 PM   #3
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Yea, Judge N Jury may get an excellent setup. He's fifth choice.

Much depends on the break, and whether the speeds hound Jackie's Warrior.
Jackie's Warrior looks very strong, and if he can break and weather the early storm, it's all his.

Life is Good is going to be a short price, and although Pletcher is tremendous with training a horse up to a race, there is a significant enough of a change here, that I need to project in my head as to how he will perform. I don't take short prices in those situations.

Some questions; Will Following Sea be used to harass Jackie's Warrior? Will Life is Good and Money Mike go 'mana o mano' right from the gate?
Is this race going to be conservative with the late season racing in mind?

I'm looking at verticals with with some and some and whether it's worth playing.
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Old 08-27-2021, 01:02 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
On paper, at least, Life is Good will not be chasing. Eye to eye, head to head. Yes, Jackie's Warrior is quick. But I can't help but seeing that 21:4 opening fraction in LIG's only sprint. Sub :22 and :44:2 is a real possible start. Both will be tested, and it should be fun to watch.
I think it’s possible Jackie’s Warrior benefitted from the sloppy sealed tack last time. The last 2 races that day hinted the track may have changed. If it did, it may have helped carry him a bit off that rapid pace. IMO, that race may not have been quite as good as it looks. Normally I’d be looking to beat a horse like that. But even if you toss that last race he’s a terror off the prior race. So it’s not you’d be betting against a mediocre horse that may have been advantaged last time. He’s a high quality sprinter either way. Still, I don’t want him.

I think LIG is the better horse, but I’m not a big fan of betting layoff horses in Grade 1 races on the dirt even if the trainer is good with layoffs.

For me, the only option would be to bet against both of them. If I had a strong opinion on 3rd best and the track wasn’t being especially kind to speed, I’d probably try that. But even if they go at it hard early I may not come up with the right horse to pick them up. That next group is VERY promising, but it’s a lot to ask at this stage to beat BOTH of these horses and it’s not clear (at least to me) which one to take.
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Old 08-27-2021, 02:00 PM   #5
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If LIG was still with Baffert. I wouldn't have a problem betting him, with Pletcher I'm not so sure.
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Old 08-27-2021, 09:35 PM   #6
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If LIG was still with Baffert. I wouldn't have a problem betting him, with Pletcher I'm not so sure.
With the way Pletcher's 2YOs have been firing this year in their first starts, I have a lot of confidence in his getting Life Is Good ready to fire his best off the layoff.
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Old 08-28-2021, 10:43 AM   #7
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You have to look really hard for little wrinkles of late pace propensity in this crowd. There's just no obvious late runner to complement the speed matchup. Not that I'm expecting the race to fall apart outright—there's just too much talent here for that.

The best late pace projection from TFUS belongs to the , and by some margin. It's the most accomplished with the least races, possessed the brightest prospects of its cohort, and figures to come back strong as can be here.

But betting against Jackie's Warrior in this sprint? It's not like there's much time to wear him down, and it won't be easy to pass him. But with a short enough price on and decent second choice odds on , that's the pick if I have to make one.

I wonder if gets a smidgen overbet based on its victory over the favorite two back, and too much stock in a sloppy track excuse last time out. I'd want to see an odds gap to fourth choice on this one.

I don't think the is quite as dismissible as 30-1 ML suggests, but only in the sense that it could round out the tri or super as well as any. It has those wrinkles of late pace interest, and ran fairly good figures in its early races compared with these.

I literally overlooked at first. I wonder if others will too. Among the biggest figs in second and third races, albeit in shallower waters, and then muddied by the Haskell. Hard to see this one beating both the favorites, but a deserving third choice.

I wanted to make a case for the as the least early pace determined, but four of these have greater late pace figs. Last performance maybe propelled by first time gelding. I kind of prefer the as a darker horse.

Maybe a //, trifecta punch? The is probably an underlay there as the longest shot, and the won't pay much at third, but that's kind of how I see the race.
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Old 08-28-2021, 04:56 PM   #8
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very live on the tote. May need to rethink my strategy. Or confirm it.
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Old 08-28-2021, 04:58 PM   #9
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Interesting race. I'll be watching.

But not much betting opportunities IMO.

I went with a blah exacta bet of , / ,
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Old 08-28-2021, 04:59 PM   #10
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Odds will be interesting at Post Time.
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Old 08-28-2021, 05:16 PM   #11
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Hot damn, what a race!
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Old 08-28-2021, 05:19 PM   #12
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I mean, they didn't bite each other, but still pretty hot.
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Old 08-28-2021, 06:32 PM   #13
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I was hoping Life is Good would lose. All it is going to take is one G1 win and Winstar is sending him to stud after the Breeders Cup. If we want any chance to see him at four he has to lose his next couple races.
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Old 08-28-2021, 11:22 PM   #14
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This one lived up to the hype.

My guess is that Life Is Good was a bit less than 100% today off the long layoff. Even though I am sure they wanted that Grade 1 win today, they may have something bigger in mind down the road. Also interesting will be if Smith keeps the mount.
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Old 08-29-2021, 03:22 AM   #15
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Great races today! Gotta love Travers Day
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