Jackpot Pick 6 hit in California--Impossible Odds

[theiman]

I am not talking about the Pick 6 at Del Mar.

The entire Jackpot Pick 6 was hit today at Ferndale.

The California Fairs run a Jackpot type wager that carry's over from Fair to Fair. So far the only fair that has run this year has been at Pleasanton. The wine Country, or Santa Rosa meet at GGF does not participate in this jackpot bet. Ferndale was the 2nd fair to race, with opening day yesterday. Nobody had the lone winning ticket at Pleasanton, which ended in mid July, so the carryover started yesterday at around $199K. They bet around $1000 yesterday with no jackpot winner.

On todays card the field size were 4-5-4-5-6-7. That alone should make it impossible to jackpot.

They bet $9900 into todays pick 6, and going into the last race, six of the seven horses had one live ticket to them, each paying $206K. There was one horse, the # that had multiple tickets and would have paid $1400.

The winning prices were, $11.00, $5.40, $11.80, $9.80, $17.20 and $8.80. So no strangers won.

So with 31 total horses to play, on a $0.20 wager, someone was alive to 6 of the 7 for the whole pool.

$3360 wager covers all horses in each race. I wonder if someone, or group did it.

There were 3 odds on favorites that did not win.

Interesting result

[FRMNBRI]

Very interesting results to say the least. Lot of heavy favorites lost and several horses won that ended up being big over lays but that still does not make any sense. I think if i looked at the results correctly, the 1/2 favorite in the first leg lost, which I am sure the casual better singled but still. Im guessing it was a group that played that ticket or someone knowing the "outcome" of how these races were going to finish. If there are let's say 20 jockeys in the state fair colony and the ticket paid 209k, they each got $10,400.00 bucks. Not too shabby!!

[AskinHaskin]

Agreed that it is mildly interesting from a non-mathematical standpoint.


But you have a small pool by any measure.


83.3% of all tickets presumably died on the 1-to-5 loser.

(that right there leaves less than $1700 alive)


2/3 of all tickets presumably went down on the 1-to-2 loser


71.4% of all tickets presumably went down on the 2-to-5 loser


45.45% of all tickets presumably went down on the 6-to-5 loser.


The longest shot on the board having won that last one.



Hard to understand that the longest shot on the board doesn't count as a "stranger". What does?


When a pair of 4-horse races are won by $11 horses that is the equal to something much larger winning in an 8-horse race.



Obviously those field sizes do not make it "impossible to jackpot". More accurately, it inspires a giant percentage of the jackpot society not to bother to try.

The one that did, got the money. (much like a year or two ago in the same scenario)



Though I agree that it is an interesting result.