Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-11-2018, 12:51 PM   #31
o_crunk
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 276
Quote:
Originally Posted by alhattab View Post
Absolutely true re the inbound simulcasts. An article from the Asbury Park Press on 6/18 addressed racing handle in light of the first weekend of sports betting, which was 6/16 and 6/17. It said "The racing numbers were up across the board on Sunday, including $1,211,030 bet on the in-house simulcast, up 8 percent from a year earlier, $973,402 bet on the live racing program, a 17-percent increase, and $4,886,393 bet on the Monmouth Park signal, up 18 percent." So on that day, there was almost 25% more bet on inbound simulcasts than there was on the live product, by people at Monmouth Park. This is part of the reason why the Monmouth per capita is so low- people are betting the simulcasts (and yes others are squatting in the picnic area not betting at all, or, now, are in the sports betting area).

Also you and others noted, adding Thursdays was a killer. Here are the numbers through July 21 as per an article in the July 22 Press:

"According to figures released by Monmouth Park on Sunday (7/23), live handle, the amount of money wagered on Monmouth Park races at the track, is up 8 percent over the same period a year ago, with $11,513,732 wagered. Total handle jumped 10 percent to $94,574,544." These numbers included only 2 Fridays vs 7 in 2017, and also included Derby Day in 2018 but not 2017, with total handle of $3.1 million.

So the Thursdays+Fridays combined (this year Fridays began on 7/13 vs in June in 2017) and some bad weather especially on those days resulted in huge average declines. I really think as a lower-tier track you have to set a schedule at the beginning of the meet and stick with it. On-track player awareness is low and simulcast players are set in their ways.

So while I agree the meet was not very bettable or aesthetically pleasing, the comps are apples and oranges in my view.
There's a lot to unpack here.

First thing is we do not know what the overall simulcast numbers look like as Monmouth has selectively been releasing numbers. Not surprisingly they've been releasing numbers that make them look good. For instance, the article you cite addressing on-track handle on 6/16 & 6/17 of this year paints a very positive picture. But if you look a little deeper at the compare they are making, it kind of falls apart. For one, they ran 4 more races on those days vs 2017. For another those two days had 68 more betting interests vs 2017 (222 vs 154). That juices the overall number quite a bit. Again, at the per interest level, both on track and overall, the handle numbers were consistently down this year, sports betting or not. That, to me at least, is the KEY number, especially in a parimutuel environment of late that has seen modest increases nationwide, particularly on those signals where field size has improved.

I will not argue that adding Thursdays in August in place of Fridays in June was a bad move. For the most part, historically, these days are comparable though Fridays tend to have slightly more handle.

Second, conflating on track and overall handle numbers is pretty sound. Those numbers are historically correlated, particularly at MTH. For the last 10 years at MTH, when the overall handle went down, so did the on-track number, often right in line with each other. So to have one overall top number up 2.2% and another overall number down 2.2% is out of line with historic trends.

Weather is the weather. People like to say it rained and that's the end of any sort of critical analysis. But again, we have the per interest number that is very reliable to see which way the handle wind is blowing. For instance, at SAR this summer, despite really bad weather, the per interest was up 4% over the previous summer, which would make that a record number for SAR.

I've maintained that it's still very early days but it's hard to look at the numbers we do have and say it's "good".
o_crunk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 01:03 PM   #32
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
A quick question, is part of the sports betting going to fund purses at Monmouth or Delaware?
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 01:07 PM   #33
o_crunk
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 276
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
A quick question, is part of the sports betting going to fund purses at Monmouth or Delaware?
In Delaware - yes as it's part of the law allowing sports betting. In New Jersey - unknown. It's not part of the law allowing sports betting. Meaning any revenue derived by the tracks is not ear marked for purses. That's the law. Both MED and MTH execs have been very cryptic about this though they both say they'd like to fund purses and increase days if they get revenue. My feeling is that if it's not part of the law, it's probably going to be limited as this is a low margin business to begin with.
o_crunk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 01:12 PM   #34
alhattab
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,187
Quote:
Originally Posted by o_crunk View Post
There's a lot to unpack here.

First thing is we do not know what the overall simulcast numbers look like as Monmouth has selectively been releasing numbers. Not surprisingly they've been releasing numbers that make them look good. For instance, the article you cite addressing on-track handle on 6/16 & 6/17 of this year paints a very positive picture. But if you look a little deeper at the compare they are making, it kind of falls apart. For one, they ran 4 more races on those days vs 2017. For another those two days had 68 more betting interests vs 2017 (222 vs 154). That juices the overall number quite a bit. Again, at the per interest level, both on track and overall, the handle numbers were consistently down this year, sports betting or not. That, to me at least, is the KEY number, especially in a parimutuel environment of late that has seen modest increases nationwide, particularly on those signals where field size has improved.

I will not argue that adding Thursdays in August in place of Fridays in June was a bad move. For the most part, historically, these days are comparable though Fridays tend to have slightly more handle.

Second, conflating on track and overall handle numbers is pretty sound. Those numbers are historically correlated, particularly at MTH. For the last 10 years at MTH, when the overall handle went down, so did the on-track number, often right in line with each other. So to have one overall top number up 2.2% and another overall number down 2.2% is out of line with historic trends.

Weather is the weather. People like to say it rained and that's the end of any sort of critical analysis. But again, we have the per interest number that is very reliable to see which way the handle wind is blowing. For instance, at SAR this summer, despite really bad weather, the per interest was up 4% over the previous summer, which would make that a record number for SAR.

I've maintained that it's still very early days but it's hard to look at the numbers we do have and say it's "good".
Crunk the point of including the 6/16-17 info was to show how much people at Mth bet on inbound simulcasts as compared w/ the Mth product. At least I think that is what the $1.2 million number cited reflects.

Also re. the comps, 6/17 was Father's Day with 23,000+ on track vs. 2017 with 18,000+ on track. Sports betting has something to do with the increase but I believe 2017 weather wasn't great or at least the forecast was bad- 18,000 is very low for Mth Father's Day- so there were many more people to bet both on and off track.
alhattab is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 01:35 PM   #35
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Lol.every sports book in jersey has in game wagering. You can trade in and out of your bets and don’t have to wait until the end of the game. Just trade out of your position and take your profit (or loss). It’s like the x. You can cash out anytime. Hell I cashed out of the grand national mid race for megabucks.

Of course if I had held out until the very end I would have made more.

In game wagering is the future.

Allan
If in-game sports wagering is the future...then horse racing will become the past...IMO. The more engrossed the gambler gets in his sports bets, the less attention he will give to the horses. Even the most hardcore horseplayer will admit that his fondness for sporting events predates his affection for horse racing. Plus...you may be forgetting that the average gambler isn't the big winner that you are. The more wagering opportunities the average gambler gets, the quicker he runs out of money...and the longer he stays out of action altogether. These things don't exist in a vacuum; they interact upon one another.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 02:19 PM   #36
v j stauffer
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
If in-game sports wagering is the future...then horse racing will become the past...IMO. The more engrossed the gambler gets in his sports bets, the less attention he will give to the horses. Even the most hardcore horseplayer will admit that his fondness for sporting events predates his affection for horse racing. Plus...you may be forgetting that the average gambler isn't the big winner that you are. The more wagering opportunities the average gambler gets, the quicker he runs out of money...and the longer he stays out of action altogether. These things don't exist in a vacuum; they interact upon one another.
Some think there's already in game horse wagering as well.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
v j stauffer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 02:29 PM   #37
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
Some think there's already in game horse wagering as well.
Yes...and some think that there is legal online poker somewhere, as well. The main point is that these forms of "21-st century gambling opportunities" won't have the desired effect if they are confined within strict geographical perimeters. We can't all reside in NJ.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 03:02 PM   #38
o_crunk
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 276
Quote:
Originally Posted by alhattab View Post
Crunk the point of including the 6/16-17 info was to show how much people at Mth bet on inbound simulcasts as compared w/ the Mth product. At least I think that is what the $1.2 million number cited reflects.

Also re. the comps, 6/17 was Father's Day with 23,000+ on track vs. 2017 with 18,000+ on track. Sports betting has something to do with the increase but I believe 2017 weather wasn't great or at least the forecast was bad- 18,000 is very low for Mth Father's Day- so there were many more people to bet both on and off track.
Sure, I get that. At the KEE symposium last week, the MTH exec said that their nightly simulcast (after 5PM) was up 21%, which was about a $300K increase from the year-over-year period of June 16 through Labor Day. The reason why I'm skeptical of these type of numbers is because they are not the whole picture. I would expect if the overall simulcast was as good, MTH would be sharing that with the press and saying how good that is. It makes sense to me that people standing around the track at midnight would be betting racing since last year they were not standing around the track betting racing at all because the track was closed. The exec clearly stated that - their hours and staff have had to accommodate the extended hours that sports betting demands with games running late on the west coast.

I don't know. I can only analyze the numbers that I have. I'm of the opinion that MTH, like many tracks these days, are fumbling around with the attendance numbers. They simply are too close together year over year to be believable and the spiky handle number of on-track in light of that leads me to believe attendance numbers are mostly made up. Who knows though.
o_crunk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-11-2018, 03:15 PM   #39
alhattab
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,187
Quote:
Originally Posted by o_crunk View Post
Sure, I get that. At the KEE symposium last week, the MTH exec said that their nightly simulcast (after 5PM) was up 21%, which was about a $300K increase from the year-over-year period of June 16 through Labor Day. The reason why I'm skeptical of these type of numbers is because they are not the whole picture. I would expect if the overall simulcast was as good, MTH would be sharing that with the press and saying how good that is. It makes sense to me that people standing around the track at midnight would be betting racing since last year they were not standing around the track betting racing at all because the track was closed. The exec clearly stated that - their hours and staff have had to accommodate the extended hours that sports betting demands with games running late on the west coast.

I don't know. I can only analyze the numbers that I have. I'm of the opinion that MTH, like many tracks these days, are fumbling around with the attendance numbers. They simply are too close together year over year to be believable and the spiky handle number of on-track in light of that leads me to believe attendance numbers are mostly made up. Who knows though.
Agree completely on attendance. It is largely irrelevant at almost all the tracks. Think of Monmouth- spinners on Haskell Day, people betting from the Blu Grotto (ok just a handful) that aren't counted, now sports bettors that are counted (in case you weren't aware, everyone paid admission on racing days. If you bet sports you'd get a parking and admission voucher for your next trip), and of course the picnic area squatters and food truck aficionados.

For whatever reason, I don't recall Mth ever publicizing the inbound simulcast figs. I was surprised to see it in the article I referenced, and you're probably right it was put there for a reason. I've always hypothesized or backed into the inbound number.
alhattab is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-12-2018, 06:28 AM   #40
biggestal99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Yes...and some think that there is legal online poker somewhere, as well. The main point is that these forms of "21-st century gambling opportunities" won't have the desired effect if they are confined within strict geographical perimeters. We can't all reside in NJ.
It’s called states rights, look at Kentucky. They had to fight the governor and other local politicos who are anti-gambling to present historical racing. Now the more pro gambling forces are trying to get though a sports betting bill.

Good luck with that.

Allan
biggestal99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.