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Old 11-28-2017, 06:30 PM   #16
jocko699
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Originally Posted by pandy View Post
59% running first or second seems kind of high, I usually expect it to be about 55%. Does anyone have any stats on how many times the favorite places? (finishes either first or second).

Someone called me the other day asked me how to bet longshots, he said he bets win and place. I said you shouldn't bet a longshot to place, you're better off betting it to win and boxing it with the favorite in an exacta. If your longshot finishes second, half of the time you'll hit the exacta. Sometimes the exacta will pay very well if you are betting a 20-1 shot. The exacta payoffs more than compensate for the times your longshot finishes second and the favorite doesn't place.
Great advice!!!!! Thanks
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Old 11-28-2017, 06:57 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by maddog42 View Post
With the percent of favorites winning in the low 40's nowadays.....does anyone have handy the percent of favorites finishing out of the money?
Through this morning, all t-bred races in the US:

34,923 favorites. 9,570 out of the top 3 by official position. 27.4% out of the money.
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Old 11-28-2017, 07:14 PM   #18
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With the advent of the dime super and 50 cent tri, if I like a long shot, then I bet him to win.

I also key him to run second behind the favorite in a super with 4 4 horses on the 3rd line and 4 horses on the 4th line.

ex. Fav over my longshot over 1,2,3,4 over 1,2,3,4

It costs about the same as a exacta favorite over longshot, but sets you up for my higher payouts.
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Old 11-28-2017, 10:24 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by exactatom View Post
With the advent of the dime super and 50 cent tri, if I like a long shot, then I bet him to win.

I also key him to run second behind the favorite in a super with 4 4 horses on the 3rd line and 4 horses on the 4th line.

ex. Fav over my longshot over 1,2,3,4 over 1,2,3,4

It costs about the same as a exacta favorite over longshot, but sets you up for my higher payouts.
Because on turf my top 2 choices run 1-3 or 1-4 so much as opposed to a high 1-2 rate on dirt I hedge in this manner to because of the denominations on those bets. Lot of leverage there.
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Old 11-30-2017, 02:05 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post

using the 67.1% ITM, the max. consecutive probable losses = 8

if we use 50% to cut some slack for era difference and random race selection = 13

In order for the max. probable consecutive losses to be 22, the hit% would equal 34% (which is closer to typical favorite win% than ITM)


so, yea, he was improbably unlucky if true, or story was conflated with consecutive losing favorites.
But what if he played 1000 consecutive races? Not sure I know what you mean by "the max. consecutive probable losses." It's probably a little over my math-challenged head.

But I know if you flip a coin 7 times, the odds of getting 7 heads or 7 tails, right off the bat, are very low. Something like 2 out of 128. But if you flip a coins 100 times the probability of getting seven consecutive hears or tails, is something like 9 out of 10.

Maybe there's a math whiz here could tell us how many consecutive times you have to flip a coin where the probability of getting 22 straight heads (where the crooked coin is weighted to show up heads only 33% of the time) is, say, 50%.
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Old 11-30-2017, 04:16 PM   #21
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I have the favorite first or second at a 60.4% rate this year.

It is not surprising that the percent in the money plus the percent out of the money exceeds 100% due to co-favorites and entries running both in and out of the money.

A more careful calculation might give partial credit for those but I have not done so.
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Old 11-30-2017, 05:00 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
Not sure I know what you mean by "the max. consecutive probable losses."
Just means the most times that it would 'make sense' that you could lose in a row.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
But I know if you flip a coin 7 times, the odds of getting 7 heads or 7 tails, right off the bat, are very low. Something like 2 out of 128. But if you flip a coins 100 times the probability of getting seven consecutive hears or tails, is something like 9 out of 10.
The figures I gave were for 10,000 events.

As you decrease the number of events (e.g. 1,000), the maximum consecutive probable losses, also decreases.

So if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times, you may lose as many as 13 times in a row. Or if you flipped a fair coin only 100 times, '7' is the most you should lose in a row.

These are just the 'maximum'. You could have several bad losing streaks over a series of races.

And that's about as specific as my excel sheet formula gets. I'm not a mathematician.
If you were making a betting system, you'd probably want to know stuff like "What is the max. consec losses in any given 20, 30, 40,... race block", to account for stuff like a losing near your max and finally winning and then starting another streak...
It can get very complicated, fast.

Kelly criterion is really the measure that you want to work from when looking at a system, but something like the max consec losses is fun probability stuff and can be eye-opening.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-30-2017 at 05:02 PM.
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Old 11-30-2017, 10:50 PM   #23
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If I understand the OP's inquiry correctly, s/he's asking, in a broken down manner, the percentage:

PTF wins
+
PTF places
+
PTF shows
equals
PTF ITM

Bold Red is the info requested, if I'm reading it right.

I don't think that has been answered yet, though I may have missed it in there somewhere.

Last edited by ultracapper; 11-30-2017 at 10:51 PM.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:20 PM   #24
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The percentages are meaningless without the average price of the favorite. I doubt that the winning percentage of favorites would go up without a corresponding decrease in the average odds.
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