Smarty Jones Stew Elliot , PCR

[Binder]

Hi

I'm still sky high
Taking in all the Smarty Jones news I can
Loving every minute of it too.
I heard Stew Elliot interviewed on ESPN Radio today
I'm very happy for him too. He seemed very sincere
and very happy that the connections stuck with him
When they asked him about going back to Philly Park and having to ride horses for $7500 purses
He gave a quick and honest answer " Its my Job and I
love the people who have always treated me great there" He has no problem with that . He also thanked Pat Day
Saying he helped him and made feel welcomed at
CD.
I was wondering if anyone can do a calulation of Smarty Jones 's PCR from Wm. Scotts book Total Victory at the Track
I used to have a copy , At one time I used this system. But Its been a few years and I'm not sure how to do the class adjustments anymore
I was just curious .It must be a very high number since he is undefeated and it looks like all his races are step ups in Class

thanks if you can

[Binder]

75 / 11 7 -7 / 11 = 6.81 or 681
As I said I'm not sure of how to do the class adjustment
I did it this way I gave Smarty's MS race a -2 and the rest of his races up to the Derby a -1 for a total of -7

681 is what I came up with

[Jeff P]

I get 2850 or 28.50 for the Kentucky Derby. The class adjustments would be subjective. I see the Grade 2 as being 1 level below today's Grade 1 race. I see the other open stakes as being 2 levels below. I see the restricted stakes as being 3 levels below. And I see the SPLWT as being 3 levels below.


Field Size: 11+9+9+7+11+10=57

2nd Call: 1+2+2+2+1+1=9

Fin Call: 1+1+1+1+1+1=6

Class Adj: -1-2-2-2-3-3=-13

or

57 / 9 + 6 - 13 /2= 28.50 or 2850

That's about as high a PCR as I can remember seeing.

For the Preakness, it would look like this:

Field Size: 11+9+9+7+11+10+18=75

2nd Call: 1+2+2+2+1+1+2=11

Fin Call: 1+1+1+1+1+1+1=7

Class Adj: -1-2-2-2-3-3+0=-13

or

75 / 11 + 7 - 13 /5= 15.00 or 1500

Still incredibly high. Most strong early speed horses are somewhere around 200 or 2.00.

[Binder]

Hi Jeff

Now you can see why I asked. I figured the number had to be Very High as he is near the lead at the second call
and undefeated, while always moving up in class.
I messed up the class adjustments and I added in the 18
horses for the derby plus I had him 2nd at the call for the derby
Thank you for the info. and breaking it down for me
I have not used the method for years but it was fun to look back



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