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12-21-2019, 03:35 AM
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#436
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE:
R#9- 2000M C2 (10F)T….……. 5-11-3 W/ 2-13-9……..….3:25 AM
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10-11-5-13– Dutch Loss 39% Profit Margin - Passed/ No action on the LS winner #10/
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12-21-2019, 03:58 AM
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#437
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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UPDATE:
R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T
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6-8-5 W/ 4-12-11
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.4:00 AM
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12-21-2019, 04:18 AM
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#438
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE:
R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T
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6-8-5 W/ 4-12-11
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6-11-14-2 BIG Dutch Win 111% Profit Margin / $13.70 Quinella/ Placer #11 took the late action.
It turned out to be another fun and VERY profitable card.
The playable Dutch Win bets produced a healthy 81% O.A. Profit margin hitting 2 of only 2 races.
There were also quite a few nice Verticals as well; Hitting (7) Quinellas & (4) Triples (and 4 Quartets/Supers not bet-able) with some decent value!
The TOTE analysis was once again right on that money!
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12-26-2019, 12:49 AM
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#439
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - THURS - 12/26/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 9 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
( Class from top to bottom) (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5
Post Time Race #1 5:45 AM THURS EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting options:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Recommend waiting until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T
....1-3-12 W/ 2-6-5
....5:45 AM
R#2- 2200M C3 (11F)T
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.9-4-1 W/ 5-3-6
.6:15 AM
R#3- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..
3-12-1 W/ 5-7-4
..6:45 AM
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
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2-4-7 W/ 11-5-6
...7:15 AM
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
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.....2-1-4 W/ 5-11-9
......7:45 AM
R#6- 1000M C4 (5F)T
.....4-3-10 W/ 1-2-12
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8:15 AM
R#7 1650M C3 (8.25F)T
.10-1-6 W/ 4-9-5
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8:45 AM
R#8- 1650M C2 (8.25F)T
.8-9-11 W/ 6-7-2
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9:15 AM
R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T
....5-6-8 W/ 4-3-7
....9:50 AM
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12-26-2019, 03:15 AM
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#440
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Have a good attitude for this card. Good card.
Last edited by jay68802; 12-26-2019 at 03:17 AM.
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12-26-2019, 05:51 AM
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#441
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
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R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T
...1-3-12 W/ 2-6-5
...5:45 AM
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11-10-12-1 Dutch Loss 46% Profit Margin - Passed / No action on the LS Winner & Placer
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12-26-2019, 06:12 AM
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#442
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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UPDATE:
R#2- 2200M C3 (11F)T
.9-4-3 W/ 5-1-6
6:15 AM
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12-26-2019, 06:24 AM
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#443
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE:
R#2- 2200M C3 (11F)T
.9-4-3 W/ 5-1-6
6:15 AM
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6-3-4-10 Dutch Loss 43% Profit Margin / $38.50 Quinella & $175.00 Triple / Winner got hit hard late
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12-26-2019, 06:41 AM
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#444
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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UPDATE:
R#3- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..
3-12-1 W/ 5-7-6
..6:45 AM
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12-26-2019, 06:53 AM
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#445
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE:
R#3- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..
3-12-1 W/ 5-7-6
..6:45 AM
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7-3-6-8 Dutch Loss 17% Profit Margin Passed/ $10.00 Quinella & $182.80 Triple / Winner took late action
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12-26-2019, 07:11 AM
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#446
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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UPDATE:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
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2-11-7 W/ 4-5-6
...7:15 AM
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12-26-2019, 07:22 AM
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#447
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
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2-11-7 W/ 4-5-6
...7:15 AM
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10-2-5-6 Dutch Loss 49% Profit Margin - Passed / Some late action on the LS Winner
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12-26-2019, 07:41 AM
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#448
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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UPDATE:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
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.....2-1-11 W/ 5-12-4
......7:45 AM
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12-26-2019, 07:45 AM
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#449
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 245
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Race 4 10 LATE MONEY
Nitro
What pool do you see the 10 getting late money
Please explain
Thank you
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12-26-2019, 07:53 AM
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#450
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
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.....2-1-11 W/ 5-12-4
......7:45 AM
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2-5-12-1 Dutch Win 51% Profit Margin / $41.00 Quinella & $938.00 Triple ($2,443.20 Quartet)/ All of that one!
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