Horse of the Year

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by pandy

You're totally ignoring the fact that it was Santa Anita, a track that has always favored front runners in route races when they can set their own pace, and has been even more speed favoring the past few years. I've seen hundreds of cheap speed horses stretch out around two turns (usually from inside posts) and wire the field at Santa Anita. Plus, Bayern likes to race on the lead, as long as no one challenges him, he is actually saving ground because that is "his" trip. And his big races were all on tracks that favor speed, which is not a coincidence.


Your energy expenditure theories will fit many, maybe even most races, but there are exceptions. Bayern did not get a tougher trip than Chrome. He got his trip and the fact that he took out his main pace rival, and seriously impeded a horse that is probably the best colt in the country, his trip turned into a dream trip.

In all due apologies I am not ignoring anything about Santa Anita and if you followed my posts you would have seen the tracks layouts which I posted. Also I have calculated the COF of Santa Anita's new dirt surface which was recently installed.

Therefore what am I missing beside some anecdotal data that is mere conjecture by many.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

The most ridiculous comparison that I've heard is that Bayern
won 2 out of 3 encounters over CC, therefore he's better.
Way too simplistic.

CC had little, or no, chance of being near his best at Parx.
Bayern had been drilled by CC in the Preakness.
Some argue those two races should cancel each other out.
Again - way too simplistic.

So then, does it all ride on the BC Classic?
Is that what it comes down to,
regardless of trips and distance beaten?

Seems that a little race called the KY Derby
has been (conveniently) forgotten.

You act as if Bayern had a dream trip in the Preakness. Try and be just a little bit objective.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Bayern took out his competition in the race. There's no getting around that.

Yes there is. Watch the overhead.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by mostpost

You are cherry picking. Why are the last four races more important than the first five?

Because many of the first five, for instance the pre-triple crown races, mean diddly squat. You can say they are a grade 1, but they are by no means equivalent to the races later in the year. They are by no means equivalent to the BC Classic.

So, you take those meaningless races out of the equation, and you are staring at a horse winning all year-end honors over a horse who beat him fair and square, 2 of 3 times...with one of those wins at the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

And by the way, Bayern got a shit trip in the Preakness, the one race where he lost to California Chrome. See, I can play that game too...

[The WindfallAngler]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yes there is. Watch the overhead.

To the contrary, the film's overhead angle falls far short of being exculpatory. This is because the "bumping" aspect wasn't crucial.

BAYERN's interfering left turn is plain as day, forcing horses inside him to race at a disadvantage, some more than others.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by The WindfallAngler

To the contrary, the film's overhead angle falls far short of being exculpatory. This is because the "bumping" aspect wasn't crucial.

BAYERN's interfering left turn is plain as day, forcing horses inside him to race at a disadvantage, some more than others.

With the exception of Andy Beyer, every turf writer and analyst I can think who voiced their opinion either on TV, radio, or in print, thought that Bayern should have been dq'd.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by pandy

With the exception of Andy Beyer, every turf writer and analyst I can think who voiced their opinion either on TV, radio, or in print, thought that Bayern should have been dq'd.

Something tells me some of them have probably changed their mind by now...

[pandy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Something tells me some of them have probably changed their mind by now...

How can that be when Bayern finished third in the voting? I still say, if Bayern comes out of the gate straight, out duels Moreno, shakes off Shared Belief, then holds off Chrome and any other challengers in the stretch and wins, he would have been voted Horse of the Year. The incident at the start cost him a ton of votes because the voters basically drew a line through his classic win.

At the very least, it would have been a close vote, not a runaway for Chrome.

[camourous]

Originally Posted by pandy

How can that be when Bayern finished third in the voting? I still say, if Bayern comes out of the gate straight, out duels Moreno, shakes off Shared Belief, then holds off Chrome and any other challengers in the stretch and wins, he would have been voted Horse of the Year. The incident at the start cost him a ton of votes because the voters basically drew a line through his classic win.

At the very least, it would have been a close vote, not a runaway for Chrome.

Voters should vote based on the official results of races, not on whether or not they feel a horse should of been Dq'd or if they toss a race out because the horses wasn't fit enough. If they did that then then need to toss Bayern's Preakness and Shared Belief's Classic.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Funny thing. As I was looking up drafting behind various objects I learned that the reason geese fly in a V formation is not to break the wind. It is too increase lift. Each bird increases the lift to the bird to the outside of the formation. Therefore the birds to the outside need to expend increasingly less energy to stay airborne. By rotating who is in the center and who is on the wings of the V he flock is able to fly for great distances.

This whole geese discussion is the most interesting stuff in the thread.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by camourous

Voters should vote based on the official results of races, not on whether or not they feel a horse should of been Dq'd or if they toss a race out because the horses wasn't fit enough. If they did that then then need to toss Bayern's Preakness and Shared Belief's Classic.

I don't agree. If a horse wins a GR1 by shaking loose on the lead through a modest pace over a speed biased track and another horse wins a GR1 by surviving a three way heated pace duel through torrid fractions over a closer's track, I'm going to give the horse that survived the pace duel more credit for his win. I'm also going to consider who he beat.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by pandy

I don't agree. If a horse wins a GR1 by shaking loose on the lead through a modest pace over a speed biased track and another horse wins a GR1 by surviving a three way heated pace duel through torrid fractions over a closer's track, I'm going to give the horse that survived the pace duel more credit for his win. I'm also going to consider who he beat.

Please explain the concept of "speed bias" in layman's terms. What I am asking is what cause a racetrack to be "speed biased?"

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Please explain the concept of "speed bias" in layman's terms. What I am asking is what cause a racetrack to be "speed biased?"

Can be lots of things, wind, moisture, track not the same inside to out (usually moisture again), etc.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

Can be lots of things, wind, moisture, track not the same inside to out (usually moisture again), etc.

I agree that the things you mentioned are contributors to retarding a horse's speed, but the most significant one which has been related to by the poster , Masgtri Ludi on this forum is glaringly missing.

[pandy]

Weather as CJ points out can create a bias, but we've seen that even in seemingly perfect weather conditions for racing Santa Anita can be extremely speed favoring.

There are people who say that there's no such thing as track bias, or that track bias rarely occurs. They are wrong and I don't understand where they get that crazy idea from.