BC Juvenile Fillies

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It will never happen, but they should probably redo the entire graded structure of 2yo racing. Obviously, 2yo and early 3yo races are generally going to be of a much lower quality then open races of the same grade. But when I first got into the game the best 2yo stakes were made up of horses that had won some combination of their MSW, a NW1 Allowance, and often more than 1 minor or graded stakes.

Now we often have maidens competing in the minor stakes and maiden graduates going straight to the highest graded stakes.

The whole structure is 1 or 2 levels lower than it use to be.

Other than the BC Juvenile and BC Juvenile Filly, I'd be hard pressed to think of another 2yo race I think consistently delivers a race full of of multiple winners and stakes winners. Maybe the BC races should be the only Grade 1 races for 2yos and everything else should be dropped a notch. Unofficially, that's the way I view most these races anyway. Pretending some of these other races contain the very best 2yos that have already begun sorting themselves out is kind of silly.

Yes to everything you wrote.

What's worse, the philosophy of "not wasting a start" on an allowance or another smaller step up doesn't equate to these babies lasting longer. Green Light Go and Maxfield are the most recent examples.

[classhandicapper]

CJ,

I knew the pace of the Starlet was fast and almost certainly impacted how they finished, but I just checked your numbers and didn't realize how fast it was. Both you and Moss had it quite fast.

Your pace adjusted number for Kalypso wasn't too bad, especially because the track was hardly attractive for speed that day. She ran fairly well there. I think you have the race a bit faster than Beyer also who had it very slow.

They certainly aren't a very good group, but she wasn't nearly as bad as my first impression of the final time numbers. Now I'm more upset they chose to cash in and retire Princess Noor because she looked like she was going to blow Kalypso out despite being right on that pace too.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

CJ,

I knew the pace of the Starlet was fast and almost certainly impacted how they finished, but I just checked your numbers and didn't realize how fast it was. Both you and Moss had it quite fast.

Kalypso came back out of the race and improved her Beyer figure 16 points to an 81 (more in line with previous efforts). Some of that may have been related to dropping back to a sprint, but it's likely the pace of the Starlett was also a big factor in the slow figure that day. She didn't seem gassed at the end of the 7F.

Given that Princess Noor was in the process of blowing Kalypso away after chasing that fast pace and challenging by the 6f pole, I suspect we missed out on a very good performance that day.

Speilberg also came back to win a stake and earned a Beyer of 81.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Kalypso came back out of the race and improved her Beyer figure 16 points to an 81 (more in line with previous efforts). Some of that may have been related to dropping back to a sprint, but it's likely the pace of the Starlett was also a big factor in the slow figure that day. She didn't seem gassed at the end of the 7F.

Given that Princess Noor was in the process of blowing Kalypso away after chasing that fast pace and challenging by the 6f pole, I suspect we missed out on a very good performance that day.

Speilberg also came back to win a stake and earned a Beyer of 81.

It's speculative at best to say Princess Noor would have blown the doors off the Starlet field with a full 1/4 mile still left to run, particularly since in her last start she made a decisive move for the lead and soon after hit a brick wall before staggering home. This time she couldn't even complete the course. If she had, there is no telling how things would have turned out in the stretch (see the Sham for a recent example).

There really is no way to argue given the outcome that Princess Noor's BC was an aberration and that she really was still in top form AND on the improve...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

It's speculative at best to say Princess Noor would have blown the doors off the Starlet field with a full 1/4 mile still left to run, particularly since in her last start she made a decisive move for the lead and soon after hit a brick wall before staggering home. This time she couldn't even complete the course. If she had, there is no telling how things would have turned out in the stretch (see the Sham for a recent example).

There really is no way to argue given the outcome that Princess Noor's BC was an aberration and that she really was still in top form AND on the improve...

I agree. Unless they finish the race you can never know. But she was obviously going right by Kalypso at the top of the stretch, still looked loaded, and looked set to beat her easily when she got hurt. I'm not sure what the under over would have been on the final margin, but I don't think bookmakers would have made it very close.

I agree on you other point too. We can't tell whether she moved forward further off the BC race or she was simply subpar in the BC race.

What I feel fairly confident saying is that she was WAY more talented that those very slow speed figures indicated going into the BC.

The ease with with which was winning those slow races and how she worked in company with horses that have run since suggested she was more talented than that and imo she clearly she was. Unfortunately, we'll never now how talented.

The Sham was interesting, but I don't think it was comparable. The pace was not rocket fast like the Starlett, the 2nd horse was not tired when passed easily, Smith pulled an Authentic with the leader and stopped riding, and the race came back VERY fast anyway. They were both running really well.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

But she was obviously going right by Kalypso at the top of the stretch, still looked loaded, and looked set to beat her easily when she got hurt. I'm not sure what the under over would have been on the final margin, but I don't think bookmakers would have made it very close.

There's no doubt Princess Noor had that visually spectacular "push button" turn-of-foot on the turn that gets the pulse racing.

However, at no point did she ever show she could sustain such a move and finish strongly in top class company. Unfortunately she outclassed the maiden horses that ran in southern CA's Grade 1 2yo stakes and never faced a real stretch threat, allowing Victor Espinoza to do his foolish geared-down gallop to the line (which worked so effectively for California Chrome leading up to the 2016 BC Classic).

In the Starlet, Princess Noor's head was cocked to the right passing the half and going into the far turn, a very awkward posture. Espinoza righted her, pushed the button and she got on near even terms with Kalypso. After that he had to urge her on to get by Kalypso which she willingly did, but immediately pulled up when she got about 3/4s of length on her. The move to the lead was a far cry from the DM Debutante or the Chandelier, where Espinoza sat still while the horse cruised to the lead, only urging her on once she straightened up in the stretch.

In addition, Kalypso ultimately didn't win the race, so even if one believes that Princess Noor had her measured (and IMO Kalypso hardly through in the towel and conceivably could have battled back) there's no certainty that Princess Noor would have staved off Varda, 65 BSF or not.

What I feel fairly confident saying is that she was WAY more talented that those very slow speed figures indicated going into the BC.

I'm confident that Princess Noor was on the decline rather than on the improve as evidenced by her performance in the BC, the overtraining leading up to the Starlet, the character of her worksouts, the equipment change, and obviously the DNF.

Of all the botch jobs perpetrated by her trainer in 2020, this was the worst in my opinion.

The ease with with which was winning those slow races and how she worked in company with horses that have run since suggested she was more talented than that and imo she clearly she was. Unfortunately, we'll never now how talented.

The fact that Kalypso and Spielberg are subsequently putting up mid-80s BSFs at best gives us some clue.

The Sham was interesting, but I don't think it was comparable. The pace was not rocket fast like the Starlett, the 2nd horse was not tired when passed easily, Smith pulled an Authentic with the leader and stopped riding, and the race came back VERY fast anyway. They were both running really well.

The pace wasn't fast for the Sham? Life Is Good set a half mile that was over 2 seconds faster and a 3/4 time that was over 3 seconds faster than TWO different allowance races for older horses on the same card.

Also, Life Is Good never passed anybody in the race, he went wire-to-wire.

At any rate, the point of alluding to the Sham was that Life Is Good looked like he could have won by the length of the stretch (just as some were suggesting Princess Noor would have done in the Starlet) but ultimately had to work to get the job done.

[classhandicapper]

I'm confident that Princess Noor was on the decline rather than on the improve as evidenced by her performance in the BC, the overtraining leading up to the Starlet, the character of her worksouts, the equipment change, and obviously the DNF.

I'm not going to agree with that.

She did not run well in the Juvenile Filly, but she still ran faster than in the early races in CA.

In the Starlet, Princess Noor's head was cocked to the right passing the half and going into the far turn, a very awkward posture. Espinoza righted her, pushed the button and she got on near even terms with Kalypso. After that he had to urge her on to get by Kalypso which she willingly did, but immediately pulled up when she got about 3/4s of length on her.

PN obviously had some issues cocking her head in the race and in some previous workouts. I have no idea why. Maybe that was a clue to the impending problem. But she was going right by Kalypso before going bad. It's probably 99% she was going to beat her clearly. That horse's subsequent effort simply helps clarify where Princess Noor was that day had she not gone bad.

At any rate, the point of alluding to the Sham was that Life Is Good looked like he could have won by the length of the stretch (just as some were suggesting Princess Noor would have done in the Starlet) but ultimately had to work to get the job done.

I understood your point.

The point I was making is that Smith stopped riding Life Is Good and the 2nd horse (the other Baffert) was not tired chasing him. He finished really well and ran very fast. That's partly why he started closing down on Life Is Good late. In the Starlett, Kalypso was dead tired and extremely unlikely to re-rally and the winner of the race didn't beat her by much anyway. That winner looked like a total toss yesterday. I was sorry she got scratched.

IMO it's highly like PN would have won the Starlett pretty clear. She may not have earned an specially fast Beyer figure, but on a pace adjusted basis like Timeform uses it would have looked quite good (like maybe the equivalent of a Beyer of 90 or a little higher).

Anyway, it's all speculation and we aren't going to change each other's mind. :-) Time to move on again.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not going to agree with that.

She did not run well in the Juvenile Filly, but she still ran faster than in the early races in CA.

If you are going put stock into figure registered while the horse was non-competitive, staggering through the stretch, and losing ground with every stride, then the logical conclusion is that she must have maxed herself out (either physically or talent-wise or both) at a 85 BSF and was a bounce candidate in her next start.

But she was going right by Kalypso before going bad. It's probably 99% she was going to beat her clearly. That horse's subsequent effort simply helps clarify where Princess Noor was that day had she not gone bad.

That's a bit backwards and presumptuous. You said Kalypso ran poorly in the Starlet (dead tired, unlikely to re-rally) and the 65 BSF she earned bears that out. Yet now that she ran a modestly good race in a sprint, somehow Princess Noor (who didn't beat her that day) is flattered.

The reality is that Kalypso's subsequent performance does nothing to flatter Princess Noor, but simply suggests that Kalypso herself is improving or prefers one-turn or both.

Same goes for Spielberg. If his subsequent efforts are a step up from last October, then it simply means Princess Noor was outperforming horses that had yet to blossom.

Doesn't mean Princess Noor would have necessarily improved, too.

In the Starlett, Kalypso was dead tired and extremely unlikely to re-rally and the winner of the race didn't beat her by much anyway. That winner looked like a total toss yesterday. I was sorry she got scratched.

Why would Varda be a toss? She won her only sprint, has proved she can close at a route, cuts back to an extended sprint (which favors closing route types), and would have caught a fast pace (:45 half, 1:10 3/4s).

All Kalypso did was out-duel a maiden claimer winner and hold off yet another maiden in a graded stakes in southern CA.

Anyway, it's all speculation and we aren't going to change each other's mind.

I hope I changed your mind about the pace of the Sham at least...

[GMB@BP]

Anyone see the Timeform paceline for the Sham?

Feels like something in the 130's maybe for the pace and final around 115.

[classhandicapper]

If you are going put stock into figure registered while the horse was non-competitive, staggering through the stretch, and losing ground with every stride, then the logical conclusion is that she must have maxed herself out (either physically or talent-wise or both) at a 85 BSF and was a bounce candidate in her next start.

What I believe is that she ran an 85 chasing much better horses in the BC than she did in CA. That demonstrated she was better than the high 70s figures she was earning in CA winning while being eased up in her races. I have no idea if that was some kind of peak, a subpar performance, or if she was on a path to bigger and better things.

That's a bit backwards and presumptuous. You said Kalypso ran poorly in the Starlet (dead tired, unlikely to re-rally) and the 65 BSF she earned bears that out. Yet now that she ran a modestly good race in a sprint, somehow Princess Noor (who didn't beat her that day) is flattered.

On the contrary, I said Kalypso and by extension Princess Noor ran way better in the Starlett than it looked on speed figures because they had run a very fast pace that caused the final time figure to be slow (see Timeform adjusted numbers for evidence).

I followed that up by saying that Kalypso's subsequent figure of 81 helps demonstrate that my analysis of the Starlett was spot on. Her figure jumped right back up into the 80s.

I merely extended that to say that since Princess Noor was blowing by Kalypso in the Starlett when she got hurt and that Kalypso was tired from that extreme pace there was no way she was going re-rally to come back again on Princess Noor. Therefore, Princess Noor was a MUCH better horse than Kalypso. If Kalypso is more or less an 81 horse, I suspect that Princess Noor was a lot closer to a 90 horse at that point had she not gotten hurt.

All of this is to simply suggest that those 78s etc.. that Princess Noor was earning under wraps in CA dramatically underrated her actual ability at the time. Kalypso and Spielberg (horses she was clearly superior to) have been demonstrating that.

I hope I changed your mind about the pace of the Sham at least...

The pace of the Sham was mildly fast on both Timeform and Moss, but it was Life Is Good that was well clear setting it after being used early wide to get the lead. That would explain why HE backed up a little in addition to Smith not riding all out for awhile. Medina Spirit was sitting in a good spot several length off it and ran well late. That race development was not similar to the Starlett where both Kalypso and Princess Noor were both cooking up front and both were impacted even though Princess Noor was putting her away.

Seriously, we don't have to agree and continue this. We are equally confident in our views and probably aren't going to agree. We both have better uses of our time.

All I am saying is that win or not Princess Noor's chances were being underrated by the haters going into the BC filly race. Heck, the race Medina Spirit and Life is Good ran help demonstrate how much and how quickly lightly raced Baffert horses can jump up on figures.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Anyone see the Timeform paceline for the Sham?

Feels like something in the 130's maybe for the pace and final around 115.

Here you go...

[cj]

While I'm at it, here is Kalypso's last race, and I threw in Princess Noor's career at the bottom.