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Old 10-10-2020, 03:19 PM   #1
Poindexter
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Woodbine Mohawk Saturday race5

I thought I would go through this race because it is a real competitive race imo. Now watch the 8/5 favorite win and the 2-1 2nd favorite come 2nd. Won't be the first time and certainly will not be the last.

This race is the finals of the Grassroots. Race 5 tonight at Mohawk. Pretty much on ability the entire field is within a couple of lengths of each other. I am assuming no scratches, for this illustration.

Off last race figures(my figures incorporate pace/ground loss and class in them), I make Nightlife Seelster the best. He was parked past the 1/4 to the top, sat a 2 hole trip but imo closed pretty impressively along the pylons, which often horses have a hard time doing, especially when the outside flow has gained momentum. The bad news is he has the 7 post and is outside at least 2 probable leaders(the 2&5) also wouldn't be shocked if Mcnair left with the 6. So he may be used really hard that first quarter.

Another major contender(actually my top choice in here) is Chiefs Dream Girl. Who earned really good figures in my book on September 15th and 24th in impressive wins. Last out not as good a figure when beaten as 3/2 favorite against many of these. That being said the race went 155.1 which is an average 1/4 of 28.4. The field went the last 1/4 in 27.4 so it was very fast so obviously the closer to the lead you are the better off you are. This girl was 7th at the 3/4's 3rd over which meant she was held up behind two horses into that very fast last 1/4 and still managed to get up for a close 2nd. When the pace of the race is too slow and you are a victim of the slow pace, your final figure will pay the price. So while the figure doesn't look as good as the prior 2 efforts the effort was every bit as good. The bad news is she is a closer, could be caught first over(a big disadvantage with closely matched horses), could be a victim of another sluggisg pace (unlikely in a large field going for big money) etc. I think she is most likely winner in here and if you bet here you want a lively pace and a 2nd or 3rd over trip.

Another top contender would be Amini. Has Speed so she will be forwardly placed. Does she leave, does she have to quarter move, is she able to quarter move, does she sit a 2 hole trip (ideal but you need to find room) 3 hole trip(less ideal, because you have 2 horses in front of you that you need to be able to get through in the lane) does she get stung to hard with a quarter move or does she get stuck 1st over. One reason the 5 and 6 hole do better than the 2 hole is that when they leave they usually aren't stuck with a lot of the issues that this horse may face from the inside.

Cyclone Sister-Added lasix last out and was stuck 1st over. Doesn't seem to have early speed so maybe she lags a bit early and lets someone(s) from the outside into a seat and hopes to pick up cover from that horse. Otherwise she either sits in and hopes for a miracle or may be stuck 1st over again. Mclure opts for another but Drury is capable.

CL Sports Extreme-5th over last out and really closed well. Now it was a slow last 1/4 for the field relative to the rest of the field so you must take that into account(field went in 29.3 while the average 1/4 for that final time is 28.3). On the surface made up 6 lengths in a 1/4 that was 5 lengths slow doesn't knock your socks off. But visually was impressive because being 5th over and did pass 4th over OurlittleMiracle who came off a big figure in her prior start. Prior to that was a long 1st over at a 1/2 mile track so nothign wrong with that effort, prior start was beaten favorite earning a similar figure as last. Should be on the outer flow and has to be considered a contender, especially if they go fast.

Ourlittlemiracle-gave her a good figure 2 back(in fact best in this field, so she may be better on the front end. Also had some good figures August 7th and 18th). Good post, good early speed, not thrilled with driver change as Roy drives his own horse, but Cullen has been driving well of late. Another contender who likely gets a pretty decent trip. Just don't like her last race and imo (right or wrong-sometimes this hurts me) last race is paramount unless there is an excuse.

Siri Blue Chip-Rail(pylon) rode, closed well then ran into a roadblock(the winner) I think with clear sailing she was at worst 2nd. She possibly might leave in here as Mcnair is usually fairly aggressive. However when leaving 2 starts back, she put in a terrible effort. 3 back put in a good 1st over effort at a 1/2 mile track, albeit the pace was slow helping her chances. Was 53-1 in here last start the fact she was blocked makes her last effort less impressive and 15-1 on the morning line and the fact that every horse in
here looks good leads me to believe this one will be on the hefty side.

Celia Bayama-Always gets a lot of attention on the tote board. Didn't have the best of trips last out as was used early to tuck 4 hole and came 1st up. From the 8 hole, I am not expecting a better trip this time around. Nothing on her scorecard really impresses me other than she is obviously is highly regarded. She won't be on any of my tickets.

Come on Sun-has one huge effort 8/28 and a bunch of mediocity ever since. She also will not be on any of my tickets.

Shiatsu Seelster-Roy owns part of this one, so obviously he has to opt for it.
Has some talent. Figures aren't terrible, good trainer, was well bet against many of these in last. 2nd tier could be a big problem. Just has to have a lot go right to win in here.

What is an odd line? Just my opinion. Everything I just wrote in a fair odds line for each horse.

So here is my initial line:

1) 8
2) 5
3) 4
4) 6
5) 8
6) 12
7) 5
8) 20
9) 30
10) 20

Now I have a problem. If you add those percentages up you have 110% roughly and I have to knock 10 points off of that(or increase the odds on some of my horses). Now with the outside 3 horses I feel my line in on the money so I have to leave them as is. I don't think the 3 should be any higher and I don't think the 7 should be any higher. So that leaves me the 1-2-4-5-6 that I need to increase my odds on

So I will do something like this.

1) 10
2) 6
3) 4
4) 7
5) 9
6) 15
7) 5
8) 20
9) 30
10) 20

Now I am much closer at around 102%. I need to add a point on 2 horses.

This is what I decided to do.

1) 10
2) 6
3) 4
4) 8
5) 9
6) 16
7) 5
8) 20
9) 30
10) 20


One thing you will notice about my line, there is no heavy chalk. Very rare is the race where a favorite will be 4-1 or thereabouts. In most instances the crowd will find a horse or horses to latch onto. These horses will be overplayed (imo) thus driving up the price on some of the other contenders, creating a perceived value situation (just because I think a horse is value, doesn't mean he really is value-but if I am going to bet a horse it makes sense to bet on a horse that I think is value-does it not). I assume it will be the 3 & 7, but we will see. Note that on my initial line i rated the 2 and 7 even and moved the 2 up not the 7. I rarely do that but in this case I think it made sense. I think I erred a bit on my initial line and part of this process is trying to catch your mistakes when you have to go back.

Now I have 9 more races to handicap. Be back later with my ABC's.
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Old 10-10-2020, 07:05 PM   #2
Sea Biscuit
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Race 1 #6 Brave World W/p
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Old 10-10-2020, 11:33 PM   #3
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Race 12 #2 Fixed Idea w/p
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Old 10-11-2020, 03:42 AM   #4
Ray2000
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Kudos, Poindexter

Excellent analysis, thx for posting
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Old 10-11-2020, 04:37 AM   #5
Poindexter
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ty Ray.

Just a quick recap of the race

My line, final odds

1) 10, 14
2) 6, 16
3) 4, 2
4) 8, 9
5) 9, 5
6) 16, 33
7) 5, 3
8) 20, 5
9) 30, 19
10) 20,19



results

1 Cyclone Sister $31.40 $11.00 $7.00
3 Chiefs Dream Girl $4.30 $3.40
2 Amini - $5.70
5 Ourlittlemiracle - -



As projected the 3 and 7 received the most attention. The 3 received a nice trip and was no match for the winner that ran well, the 7 surprisingly settled for the 3 hole early (and ended up being completely blocked through the lane) leaving the 2 horse who was huge value in what looked to be a perfect trip. However, the driver of the 5 foolishly went the 3rd quarter way too fast, stinging his horse and leaving the 2 stuck behind a tiring horse and by the time she got clear mid stretch the 1 and 3 had blown by and had all the momentum and she lost all chance of winning but did get up for 3rd. The 8 horse not surprisingly took a lot of money at the windows as she always does. Poor post, overrated horse not surprisingly nowhere to be seen. So 3 of the horses that received the most attention (bet down the most from my line were the ones I expected). The 4th one was the 5 who made the lead easily but went the 3rd quarter too fast and as mentioned above I wasn't too keen on his prior race. Did manage to stick around for 4th.

My value horses were the 2 who ran into trouble and the 6 who just wasn't good enough to make any noise at 33-1 given a less than perfect trip. Fortunately for me the 1 was 18-1 as the horses were lining up so I also played her and did pretty good this race. At 14-1 it wouldn't have been enough value to play her and the mandatory line shift would have been a costly one.
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