It's starting to look a little ugly

[PaceAdvantage]

After the cash markets close at 4pm eastern, the futures markets keep trading until 4:15. While there was a decent little rebound after the 4pm close, the last few minutes saw the futures fall back off a cliff and finish at the low of the day...should make Monday's opening very interesting...

I guess I need to start rethinking my theory in that other thread that the market isn't going to tank in October...although some will argue it's already tanked, it hasn't...

[thaskalos]

Brace yourselves for a bear market of epic proportions.

[lamboguy]

today was the first time that it broke a trend line since 2009, s+p should drop about 600 points from here and fast.

[JustRalph]

Don't worry......Barry will save it

[badcompany]

Yes, this week sucked big time. I got knocked back to where I was in July, but, a little perspective before you head for the ledge:

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

today was the first time that it broke a trend line since 2009, s+p should drop about 600 points from here and fast.

What trend line are you talking about?

[_______]

Some of the energy stocks I hold are already down better than 10% from July. If we see $75 WTI as some are predicting I expect they'll be down even more than that going forward.

Low oil prices are like an across the board tax cut for the middle class. Companies are (so far) coming out with upside surprises on earnings and improved forward guidance. Yeah, I know it's early. But Alcoa is a pretty good bell weather.

Valuations aren't cheap but the idea of a huge drop from these levels seems counterintuitive.

If this the start of an extended bear market it'll be the first one I've seen in what looks to be the beginning of a Goldilocks economy.

I'm taking my lumps and staying long.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Don't worry......Barry will save it

It sure won't be his dog, Old Yellen.......

[turninforhome10]

Will someone explain to me why it is good for wholesale inventory reports to be so high. on the one hand it is good that people are at work making these inventories, but no one is buying?
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-...le-inventories

[Robert Goren]

The market is long overdo for a correction. I expect one of 10-15%. The good news is oil is down to $85 a barrel.

On side note; I have noticed the better the republicans are doing the polls, the worse the market does. Maybe investors are wising up to what the republican ideas do to the stock market.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by badcompany

What trend line are you talking about?

you just drew it

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

you just drew it

That's the 200 day, in that chart it's 40 week ma.

It's broken that many times since then. In this chart it's represented as the 9 month sma:



As an aside, moving averages have to be taken in context. When markets remain flat for an extended period, long term averages can be broken without much of a move. That's the case, now, when a 5% down move caused the 200sma to be broken. A typical down move for the 200 to be broken is 8-9%.

In fact, this why I suspected the 200 would be broken. It's a way for market makers to accumulate stock as many players use the 200 as a sell signal, and to do so without giving those on the sidelines a shot at getting in at a lower level.

If they want my long term holdings, they're gonna have to take the market down another 10%.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

The market is long overdo for a correction. I expect one of 10-15%. The good news is oil is down to $85 a barrel.

On side note; I have noticed the better the republicans are doing the polls, the worse the market does. Maybe investors are wising up to what the republican ideas do to the stock market.

Good news unless you're paying 55 a barrel to get it out of the ground. At 79 a barrel, 30-40 % of fracking becomes a losing game. At 73 a barrel fracking stops in all but the most profitable areas.

In Odessa Tx they are shaking in their boots. But there also needs to be a correction in the employment market. Low oil prices will do that

[_______]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Will someone explain to me why it is good for wholesale inventory reports to be so high. on the one hand it is good that people are at work making these inventories, but no one is buying?
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-...le-inventories

The answer to your question is in the link you posted. Inventory didn't go up because no one is buying. It went up because business's are playing catch up with demand. It indicates buisness optimism.

[_______]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Good news unless you're paying 55 a barrel to get it out of the ground. At 79 a barrel, 30-40 % of fracking becomes a losing game. At 73 a barrel fracking stops in all but the most profitable areas.

In Odessa Tx they are shaking in their boots. But there also needs to be a correction in the employment market. Low oil prices will do that

The "average" cost of production for North American shale that I've seen is $65. I know there's a lot of concern over production at lower price levels as you can see it in the oil service sector, which makes sense.

Remarkable to my mind is that you also see it in the North American refiners. So long as the spread between WTI and Brent exists they should be profitable on the arbitrage regardless of WTI's price. People are tossing the baby out with the bath water.