Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-04-2018, 04:55 PM   #31
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
3-1
4-1
7-1
10-1
12-1
18-1
18-1
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 06:21 PM   #32
planks46d
Registered User
 
planks46d's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 268
My Odds line:

5 - JUSTIFY
5.5 - BOLT DORO
6.8 - PROMISES FULFILLED
16.1 - AUDIBLE
25.3 - VINO ROSSO
55.2 - MENDELSSOHN
77.1 - GOOD MAGIC
127.2 - FLAMEAWAY
134.1 - LONE SAILOR
216.4 - SOLOMINI
xxx - 1 FIRENZE FIRE
xxx - 2 FREE DROP BILLY
xxx - 9 HOFBURG
xxx - 10 MY BOY JACK
xxx - 12 ENTICED
xxx - 13 BRAVAZO
xxx - 15 INSTILLED REGARD
xxx - 19 NOBLE INDY
xxx - 20 COMBATANT
__________________
"Some days chickens, some days feathers"
planks46d is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 06:27 PM   #33
BlueChip@DRF
Random Numbers Generator
 
BlueChip@DRF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by planks46d View Post
My Odds line:

5 - JUSTIFY
5.5 - BOLT DORO
6.8 - PROMISES FULFILLED
16.1 - AUDIBLE
25.3 - VINO ROSSO
55.2 - MENDELSSOHN
77.1 - GOOD MAGIC
127.2 - FLAMEAWAY
134.1 - LONE SAILOR
216.4 - SOLOMINI
xxx - 1 FIRENZE FIRE
xxx - 2 FREE DROP BILLY
xxx - 9 HOFBURG
xxx - 10 MY BOY JACK
xxx - 12 ENTICED
xxx - 13 BRAVAZO
xxx - 15 INSTILLED REGARD
xxx - 19 NOBLE INDY
xxx - 20 COMBATANT

Wow... You really don't think much of Magnum Moon, eh?
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
BlueChip@DRF is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 01:53 AM   #34
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I created a fibonacci-based weighting to rank position.

They still have a rank position (even though it is terrible).
Thank you for the clarification. I tend to think of using fibs in terms of price points, but I suppose in a weight-for-age race it can also be useful for determining a true odds line, though I'd have to think that over a bit. While the true odds remain static, the tote odds would fluctuate back and forth across critical inflection points, at least in theory.

As for my odds line for the Derby, I take into account the odds and relative chances to win, as well as a single projected order of finish. Plenty of chaos and other noise, but what can you do? Which means the horse I'll be betting, Enticed, isn't really the one I consider most likely to win, but he represents the most value, IMHO. Something like this, in a projected order of finish, with M/L odds, current odds Friday night with $1.2M in the win pool, and my rough odds to win.

# 12 Enticed (30-1, 52-1, .10)
# 7 Justify (3-1, 7-2, .21)
# 6 Good Magic (12-1, 8-1, .15)
# 9 Hofburg (20-1, 24-1, .09)
# 5 Audible (8-1, 6-1, .06)
# 20 Combatant (50-1, 79-1, .05)
# 10 My Boy Jack (30-1, 5-1, .05)
# 15 Instilled Regard (50-1, 99-1, .03)
# 17 Solomini (30-1, 68-1, .03)
# 18 Vino Rosso (12-1, 18-1, .05)
**Mendoza Line (for betting) goes about here*******
# 4 Flameaway (30-1, 53-1, .02)
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (8-1, 8-1, .02)
# 2 Free Drop Billy (30-1, 42-1, .02)
# 8 Lone Sailor (50-1, 29-1, .00)
# 13 Bravazo (50-1, 68-1, .00)
# 14 Mendelssohn (5-1, 5-1, .05)
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (30-1, 41-1, .01)
# 1 Firenze Fire (50-1, 65-1, .01)
# 16 Magnum Moon (6-1, 13-1, .05)
# 19 Noble Indy (30-1, 49-1, .00) Not sure what his odds are for this, but I'd bet him to finish last if I was in Vegas or England.

Good luck to all....
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 04:17 AM   #35
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
My line on top Contenders

Justify 9/2
Audible 6-1
Magnum Moon 10-1
Bolt De Oro 12-1
Good Magic 15-1
Hofburg 15-1
Mendlessohn 15-1
Enticed 20-1
Vin Russo 20-1
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 08:22 AM   #36
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
Thank you for the clarification. I tend to think of using fibs in terms of price points, but I suppose in a weight-for-age race it can also be useful for determining a true odds line, though I'd have to think that over a bit. While the true odds remain static, the tote odds would fluctuate back and forth across critical inflection points, at least in theory.

As for my odds line for the Derby, I take into account the odds and relative chances to win, as well as a single projected order of finish. Plenty of chaos and other noise, but what can you do? Which means the horse I'll be betting, Enticed, isn't really the one I consider most likely to win, but he represents the most value, IMHO. Something like this, in a projected order of finish, with M/L odds, current odds Friday night with $1.2M in the win pool, and my rough odds to win.

# 12 Enticed (30-1, 52-1, .10)
# 7 Justify (3-1, 7-2, .21)
# 6 Good Magic (12-1, 8-1, .15)
# 9 Hofburg (20-1, 24-1, .09)
# 5 Audible (8-1, 6-1, .06)
# 20 Combatant (50-1, 79-1, .05)
# 10 My Boy Jack (30-1, 5-1, .05)
# 15 Instilled Regard (50-1, 99-1, .03)
# 17 Solomini (30-1, 68-1, .03)
# 18 Vino Rosso (12-1, 18-1, .05)
**Mendoza Line (for betting) goes about here*******
# 4 Flameaway (30-1, 53-1, .02)
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (8-1, 8-1, .02)
# 2 Free Drop Billy (30-1, 42-1, .02)
# 8 Lone Sailor (50-1, 29-1, .00)
# 13 Bravazo (50-1, 68-1, .00)
# 14 Mendelssohn (5-1, 5-1, .05)
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (30-1, 41-1, .01)
# 1 Firenze Fire (50-1, 65-1, .01)
# 16 Magnum Moon (6-1, 13-1, .05)
# 19 Noble Indy (30-1, 49-1, .00) Not sure what his odds are for this, but I'd bet him to finish last if I was in Vegas or England

Good luck to all....
Interesting Line. Surprising that you have Bolt and Mendel...below your Mendoza line. I don't have a read on Mendelssohn, but Bolt appears like he's a strong candidate to make a big improvement over his 2nd place finish after a major prep race. I will probably include him in an exacta. GL.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 09:21 AM   #37
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
Good luck today!

Saturday, 6:15 am Pacific

Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 09:40 AM   #38
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
5/2
5/1
8/1
12/1:
15/1
20/1
Everyone else 25/1
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 01:23 PM   #39
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,257
KY DERBY 2018

With a little more than 5 hrs to go before they head to the post, these are the top 7 in order according to my before the tote UPR odds line:

Code:
num  horsename              ol
---  ------------------  ----- 
  3  PROMISES FULFILLED   5.90
 12  ENTICED              7.63
 19  NOBLE INDY           8.31
 11  BOLT DORO           11.68
  1  FIRENZE FIRE        16.69
  7  JUSTIFY             17.67
  9  HOFBURG             18.73

Good luck to all,


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 06:42 PM   #40
Pensacola Pete
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete View Post
Magnum Moon: 5/2
Justify: 3-1
Mendelssohn: 5-1
Audible: 10-1
Field: 4-1
UPDATED LINE:

Magnum Moon: 2-1
Mendelssohn: 4-1
Audible: 7-1
Justify: 10-1
Field: 3-1
Pensacola Pete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 06:55 PM   #41
Pensacola Pete
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete View Post
UPDATED LINE:

Magnum Moon: 2-1
Mendelssohn: 4-1
Audible: 7-1
Justify: 10-1
Field: 3-1
Updated Redboard Line:

Justify: 1-100
Field: 100-1
Pensacola Pete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 07:06 PM   #42
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
Good picking! (Remember, I didn't do the picking. I just totaled the numbers.)

Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-05-2018, 09:50 PM   #43
Denny
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny View Post
I have:

Justify - EVEN
.
Good Magic - 10
Bolt d'Oro - 12
Audible - 15
Vino Rosso - 20
Mendelsohn - 25
Magnum Moon - 25
Hofburg -35
Instilled Regard - 35
Solomini - 40
.
Rest divide what little is left
I think I'm the Winner!!!

Had the first four finishers ranked:

1st
2nd
4th
9th

Anybody do better?
Denny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2018, 04:32 AM   #44
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny View Post
I think I'm the Winner!!!

Had the first four finishers ranked:

1st
2nd
4th
9th

Anybody do better?
Good picks. If we had a point system, I believe you'd win for that, but I didn't too badly, for a change (when it comes to the Derby)

My predicted order of finish for the top 5 by betting was:

2nd
3rd
5th
8th
7th

My odds line for the top 5 was:

1st
2nd
5th
(T) 11th
(T) 6th

In other words, I tossed some of the higher odds horses I thought were awful underlays when considering betting.

It's safe to say that both Instilled Regard and Bravazo outran their odds, especially Bravazo, though of course running 6th doesn't get you anything. Personally, I was able to salvage a profit from some saver exactas and tris.

Hindsight being 50-50, as Pat Dye once said, I could have maybe caught the super with a larger investment, since I keyed the 6-7-12 on top is some tickets, but it's such a crap shoot after a certain point.

Thanks for the thread Dave. Some things to think about, though to be honest I gotta say your "fair odds" calculations seem very heavily weighted towards the top. 4-1 on Justify seems more accurate than 9-5, and Instilled Regard was totally out of whack. Matter of fact, I'd argue that from Hoffberg on down the line was totally not realistic......just my two cents.
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-06-2018, 07:16 AM   #45
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post

Thanks for the thread Dave. Some things to think about, though to be honest I gotta say your "fair odds" calculations seem very heavily weighted towards the top. 4-1 on Justify seems more accurate than 9-5, and Instilled Regard was totally out of whack. Matter of fact, I'd argue that from Hoffberg on down the line was totally not realistic......just my two cents.
And yet, they turned the top 2 horses into the only overlays in the race. Ultimately, they produced the winner and the 3rd horse.

Remember... I didn't make the points. I only interpreted them.

The voting determined the result.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:47 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.