Kentucky Derby Odds Lines

[Dave Schwartz]

Updated as of 6:30pm pacific.

[Speed Figure]

I would definitely take the 182-1 on My Boy Jack hoping for a HOT PACE!

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I would definitely take the 182-1 on My Boy Jack hoping for a HOT PACE!

I think you've missed the point. The line is saying that he's got 1 chance in 183 of winning.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by jay68802

For what it is worth, how I rank the derby.


.....1929
...1926
...1901
...1897
...1885
.....1885
.....1883
.....1876
...1874
...1867
...1860
.....1859
...1857
.....1851
...1841
10... 1834
.....1834
.....1826
.....1789
13... 1747

Did you rank them by BODY-WEIGHT?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I think you've missed the point. The line is saying that he's got 1 chance in 183 of winning.

I think he is right.
If he liked a horse at 3-1, odds are it has 1 chance in 4 of winning.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Did you rank them by BODY-WEIGHT?

And the length of their tail.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Interesting take.

I'm a bit confused over the numbers here, with only 35 people voting/betting. How does a horse with a zero percent chance to win have any fair odds (other than infinity) at all? Is the Morning Line part of the math?

As a side note, I think these numbers are a bit out of whack, but quite likely more accurate than the actual closing tote numbers. In other words, once you get past the top 10 or so horses, the bottom half of the field represents only a very small slice of a tiny fraction of a chance to win.

Now, if I can just figure out where to draw that Mendoza line....

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Now, if I can just figure out where to draw that Mendoza line....

I drew mine at 8. and 12 no hopers.

Allan

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Interesting take.

I'm a bit confused over the numbers here, with only 35 people voting/betting. How does a horse with a zero percent chance to win have any fair odds (other than infinity) at all? Is the Morning Line part of the math?

As a side note, I think these numbers are a bit out of whack, but quite likely more accurate than the actual closing tote numbers. In other words, once you get past the top 10 or so horses, the bottom half of the field represents only a very small slice of a tiny fraction of a chance to win.

Now, if I can just figure out where to draw that Mendoza line....

I created a fibonacci-based weighting to rank position.

They still have a rank position (even though it is terrible).

[Dave Schwartz]

7am Pacific time update:

[lamboguy]

there was a year that Pletcher and Larry Jones put out the 2 favorites that had less than ZERO chance of winning. now these good trainers don't put horses on the track that have no business being in the race, they are all on go.

with a bunch of horses that are relatively close in ability, i see no reason to swallow on JUSTIFY a legitimate favorite. often times 3-year-olds improve day to day and looking at past performances has little to do with the way they perform.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

7am Pacific time update:

Dave, forgive my PM if you have seen it, inquiring into an updating of your 2002 table listing odds and corresponding win pct. for the year as established by the public. Your initial posting of these Derby projections prompted my inquiry.

The odds and probs are about 3 to 5 pts. higher than '02 with regard to the larger numbers (i.e., 1.98 odds equaled roughly 29% win rate back then, etc. Even Magnum Moon's 33.91 odds equaled 2.1 % in '02.)

[cordoba]

justify
audible
noble indy

your welcome

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there was a year that Pletcher and Larry Jones put out the 2 favorites that had less than ZERO chance of winning. now these good trainers don't put horses on the track that have no business being in the race, they are all on go.

with a bunch of horses that are relatively close in ability, i see no reason to swallow on JUSTIFY a legitimate favorite. often times 3-year-olds improve day to day and looking at past performances has little to do with the way they perform.

I went to the sheets seminar last year just before the BC. The Juvy was being discussed. and basically said the very thing about Bolt d'oro. why take a short price on the chalk when one of the others they like was bound to take a step up.

Even though I have justify as the most likely winner, he will be severely underlaid. I will prolly take a shot with Bolt, enticed and Hofburg.

Allan

[upthecreek]

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