So why do people keep playing

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

probably the very best way to play these days if you are good at looking at the horses because they can talk loud and clear.

I've started doing contests. You have to totally change the way you play. Like, ignoring every horse that is less than 10-1. Or at least tossing the top three crowd choices.

Funny anecdote. I'm playing in a one day pick-and-pray* tournament with 12 races. 4 at AQU, 4 at LRL and 4 at KEE. A little more than halfway through I decide to check the leaderboard and one of the people in the top 10 just bet the 5 horse in every one of the 12 races. Most of the people spend hours trying to come up with a winner and this guy just picks a number and sits back to watch the fun. Life at the races is not fair.


*In case you didn't know, in a pick-and-pray tournament you turn in picks for all events before the first event and pray you got them right. No switching horses once you've turned in your picks. You pick one horse on top and an alternate in case of a late scratch. If the primary and alternate selections in a respective race both scratch after the start of the contest, you get the favorite.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

You've made me a better player. While I have always done pretty well I had started to keep a basic betting journal for memory's sake around 2012, as I've always written. You had challenged me about handicapping ideas. I realized I had to take it from opinion into direct theory to prove my point. That launched an over 1,000 page project! It was good. The few real journal notes that were really meant to be personal remembrances turned into a quest to bring everything into focus in very specific proportions. I've done that and am still adding chapters. It also made me stop sharing too many ideas for public consumption! But more importantly you have instilled in me the need to not just be a great handicapper but "what are you going to do with that?".Being good is making money. My buddy Raybo said the same thing for years. Between my passion for the game and being a good handicapper that wins what was everybody talking about?!! I didn't know. I know now. I was never a natural gambler. I'm a pretty f**kin good one now! I owe a lot to a guy busting my balls. Thanks brother!

I have posted over 20,000 times on this board, and a fair percentage of these posts have been of the lengthy variety. The words come naturally to me, but I might be the world's slowest typist...and it takes a considerable amount of time for me to transfer my thoughts onto the printed page. And all along I wonder if what I say here will ultimately make a bit of difference to even ONE of the people who bother to read what I have to write. Then I read a post like yours...and it occurs to me that I would gladly do it all over again...TWICE over. My friend...I should be thanking YOU.

[DGroundhog]

Greatest game around.

What, so I'm supposed to gamble by pushing a ****ing button on a slot machine, counting cards (admittedly a very simple and profitable strategy under certain circumstances) or getting some lotto tickets or pull tabs?

**** that. To me, a horse race is a puzzle to be solved. Even the 'right' answer is likely incorrect. The 'right' answer being the professionally handicapped 'all things go as expected' result.

It's more of a multiple choice test with the 'right' answer depending on a great number of factors. It's more about evaluating odds vs risk on a long term strategy.

I guess I don't complain about win odds because I rarely place a win wager. I prefer exotic wagers. Maybe hitting on a longshot that clicks up further than the 'right' answer might dictate.

There is also some history attached. If you play the lottery it seems silly to root for numbers that may have benefitted you in the past.

...but at Santa Anita today in the American Stakes the winning trainer was Kenny Black. I remember him as a formidable jockey at Canterbury until he started being 1 lb over... 3 lbs over... 5 lbs over... 7 lbs over... and being busted for the nose candy that pretty much signaled the end of his jockey career (yeah, he raced elsewhere but CBY was my home track back then).

I always liked this guy as a jockey, and have rooted for him as a trainer. Today seemed like the day to play his mount (made one other play today, choosing Oscar Nominated [Kitten's Joy horse offspring] on top, - but given the odds, I really should have put the 7 All Go One Go who I also liked on top, and yeah, the 7 won).

So I hit a 2/3.9 exacta and sort of kicked myself for not playing a cheap 2/3,9 exacta since the races I've played recently have heavily centered on horses that comprise the top 4 finishers.

...but I felt great cashing for $402 and for Kenny. I'm not gonna feel great for the slot machine or the pulltab chick if I hit a $400 ticket.

For me, it IS entertainment. Not always a winning venture for sure. In fact, more often a loser than a winner - but those wins... they can carry you over for a while. They can give you stories. Not 'I pushed the button' stories, but real life, other horse playing friends can relate to stories.

I've been playing off the same $300 bankroll I started with in August of last year. Got it up to $800 around Thanksgiving, down to about $250 in February and back up to $800 now.

Most people play too many damn races. Yeah, they might hit one that really puts them over the top in a random chance of luck - but discipline has been key to me.

Granted, a lot of that has been due to me not focusing on a particular track/trends like I used to (with marginally acceptable results) - but focusing more on stakes races or graded stakes races where I know the horses and am generally confident they are trying to win the race. Add in the rare 'insider tip' and I've managed.... to stay even or better for 8 months.

Along the way, I've taken some stabs that could have paid off VERY well. Many of my solid hits have come from races I have accurately handicapped, and if I had played more aggressively I may have had had a significant profit over the past 8 moths. I just don't like to put much more than $20 in any race and will focus on a particular pool - depending on what I think may happen.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I will make this answer very personal and pretty long .

Should have, would have and could have. When you play as many pick 4's, pick 5's, pick 6's and super high 5 (with carryovers) as I do, and you are constantly right there to huge money (just off the top of my head I can name a $50,000 rainbow six, 2 mohawk harness pick 5's that nobody hit (so at least $50,000 each) a $13,000 super high five at Hawthorne Harness that I absolutely should have hit last year (not even would have or could have). This year I must have played about 30 rainbow sixes and would say that I had 5 of 6 on about 20 of them (if only so and so would have won I would have won $15,000 or if so and so would have won $8000 etc, yawn). The ones that I do hit I end up being 10 deep in a key race and watch the 8/5 win like a 1/5 shot and i get back about $500.

With wps betting, if you keep records it is really hard to delude yourself away from the truth. If I bet 500 or 700 win or win/place bets a year and am losing 10% or 15% on the dollar, nothing rational can convince me that anything other than being outplayed by better competition is to blame. My long term probability is the sum of each bets's short term probability and if isn't positive, I am doing something wrong. But if I am losing 10% on super exotics but can name so many close calls for large sums of money, then the it takes a lot longer for reality to slap me in the face or for a couple of scores to actually turn the tables and put me into the black.

All this being said, my performance the last 3 years, while not great helped me maintain hope. I actually felt like I had legitimate hope to cross the line into profits. However, my performance in 2018 has been absolutely dreadful. Whether it is pressure, bad decision making, battle scars, bad luck, short term bad spell, or me regressing to a pretty weak mean, if things do turn around pretty significantly, my betting will likely be reduced to just superexotics. Either you grind or you get grinded and all indications to me are that I for the most part (with the exception of the superexotics) am getting grinded (much more so in thoroughbred then in Harness where I am still very confident in my abilities but for some reason the pick 4's, pick 5 are the only places I can seem to make any traction.I have even sucked on those in 2018 yet I am still well in the black on those bets.

IF I lose $10,000 chasing a legitimate chances of hitting a 40,000 to $50,000 scores that is acceptable and rational to me If. I lose the same $10,000 trying to grind on straight bets (only to get grinded) and this continues to happen, then I would be pretty darn stupid to persist in that behavior. Now on the other hand if the $10,000 lost chasing superexotics becomes, $15,000, $20,000, $25,000, then I would just be getting grinded there as well and would have to give those up as well. Only time can tell.

Bottom line is record keeping is paramount, but ultimately unless we are surviving this game, or are loaded with cash, many will ultimately continue to drop out of this game. For me time will tell. Worse case scenario, is that I am attacking the 20 cent pick 4's and pick 5's at Mohawk Harness, more likely I will be chasing pick 4 and pick 5 carryovers and even pick 6's at the thoroughbreds as well. To be honest not sure I am able to make money straight betting (win, place, exactas, trifectas) any of them anymore. I haven't waved the white flag, just yet, but it is sitting right next to me ready for action.

I just see too many horses that look good to me, that are completely ignored in the betting and run to how they are bet (then when they do win the whales knock them down from 54-1 to 28-1 after the bell). Even at the harness races, I like a longshot, he gets a dream 2 hole trip (I have him boxed with the favorite he is sitting behind) I feel like I am completely home and he just goes backwards in the lane. I can stare at the past performances for an hour after the race and my opinion doesn't really change. The money seems to know things that are not apparent to me. It is not an every race happening, but it certainly happens too darn often. Unfortunately this is not an ingredient for success. I need horses that I make 5-1 that are 20-1 to at least run like 10-1 shots, not like they are true 40-1 shots as too many do.

It sounds like you should just be concentrating on Pick 4's and Pick 4's at harness tracks. But you make a good point about trying to grind out a profit with win and place bets as compared to the super exotics. At least with the super exotics you have a chance to hit a big one eventually. Once you lose $10,000 betting to win, how do you get it back? That being said, win bets on longshots have a chance in the long term, it's the win bets on favorites that are going to grind people down.


I bet every day and I enjoy it. I know that if I'm cold, I'll eventually get hot again. The short fields and problems in racing are a concern but there are still a lot of tracks and I look for good situations. Another plus, if you handicap the horses every day, it's good for your brain.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by andicap

As I debate whether to jump back into this sport, I can only wonder why so many people on this board complain so much about how difficult it is to win these days -- what with the small fields, whales, odds drops, drugs, etc. -- but yet they keep on playing.

My question with all earnestness -- and I'm not trying to be snarky -- is why?

Well I don’t participate in the Pari mutuels.

I am an exchange wagering affienecdo.

Allan

[Frankie D]

Originally Posted by pandy

It sounds like you should just be concentrating on Pick 4's and Pick 4's at harness tracks. But you make a good point about trying to grind out a profit with win and place bets as compared to the super exotics. At least with the super exotics you have a chance to hit a big one eventually. Once you lose $10,000 betting to win, how do you get it back? That being said, win bets on longshots have a chance in the long term, it's the win bets on favorites that are going to grind people down.


I bet every day and I enjoy it. I know that if I'm cold, I'll eventually get hot again. The short fields and problems in racing are a concern but there are still a lot of tracks and I look for good situations. Another plus, if you handicap the horses every day, it's good for your brain.

So Pandy, what are the money management dynamics on Pick-4 and Pick-3 play?

I am getting a high percentage of winners in the top 2 to 4 contenders. I know sometimes you have to go beyond that.

so, any tips? and what are advantages to these bet types and among each other.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have posted over 20,000 times on this board, and a fair percentage of these posts have been of the lengthy variety. The words come naturally to me, but I might be the world's slowest typist...and it takes a considerable amount of time for me to transfer my thoughts onto the printed page. And all along I wonder if what I say here will ultimately make a bit of difference to even ONE of the people who bother to read what I have to write. Then I read a post like yours...and it occurs to me that I would gladly do it all over again...TWICE over. My friend...I should be thanking YOU.

I've spent a large chunk of my life reading and being influenced by dead authors. In this game it was many hours of reading books and dreaming about the possibilities. Some very good and bad times along the way. But I have always maintained my passion. Finding people like yourself whom like it or not I psychologically adopted as mentors has sped up my learning process and the process of becoming ten fold. Eternally grateful brother! My only drawback is I don't get out to meet people much. Life has been on the upswing here and I am almost unburdened by some serious debts(not gambling). This guy is going to get out and see some of my horseplaying pals. You are on the short list!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Of course they don't enjoy losing, but they prefer it to not playing. Not everyone's goal in this game is to make money.
Some people are happy to pay for the Form and maybe have a beer or two with friends on Saturday. Some people spend a chunk on beers at a bar playing pool. Do you thing their intend is to make significant money doing this?

Lots of older players simply go to the track to get out. They "sneak" in a sandwich, buy a coffee, sit at a table and bet $2 show tickets. Maybe a group of them does this and they socialize all day.

Handicapping is a mentally challenging puzzle and it is fun to do it even if you aren't betting everyday. I think the golf analogy is spot on.

Everyone has to define his or her own goals for the game.

That's a pretty damn good point Tom and I have seen it with my own eyes. Nothing wrong with that.