White Abarrio Transferred From Saffie Joseph To Rick Dutrow

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by bobbyt62

i think dutrow is doing it for a cut rate price , just to get back on the national stage .

Sounds like a smart business move on Dutrow's part if that's the case.

[Robert Fischer]

and in this case, it reads as if Ownership is not upset with Saffie, but rather frustrated at the rules.

I have a lot of respect for Dutrow and am not suggesting that he's merely a 'paper trainer' in this play.
I'm taking more shots than Chuck Wepner and not really 'cheering on' a ton of people at the moment, but I guess I'm mildly rooting for Dutrow to have a nice comeback.

[RunDustyRun]

Geno..
before you pop off about Dutrow why don't you look at his horses' fatality rates when he was training then compare it to Saffies..then refer to what one of the most respected vets in the industry Dr. Bramlage said about how Dutrow cared for his horses'..then look at the circumstances surrounding his suspension..if after doing all these things you still think it's a good comparison then good luck to you.
I'm a fan of the horse..look forward to see what a real horseman can do with him

[Geno_Gino]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

Geno..
before you pop off about Dutrow why don't you look at his horses' fatality rates when he was training then compare it to Saffies..then refer to what one of the most respected vets in the industry Dr. Bramlage said about how Dutrow cared for his horses'..then look at the circumstances surrounding his suspension..if after doing all these things you still think it's a good comparison then good luck to you.
I'm a fan of the horse..look forward to see what a real horseman can do with him

Understood. Fatalities aside, I was attempting to make the point that certain trainers seem to magically move up horses. Before his suspension from training, Rick Dutrow Jr. was one of those trainers, in my opinion. (I'm an old fart and remember his dad Dickie Dutrow as one of the best horsemen in Maryland for many years.)

I see Jaime Ness is back to his magical winning ways as well, and while I looked awful hard at the sprinter he has stretching out in the 8th at Belmont on Friday, I ended up not using him on my ticket.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Originally Posted by bobbyt62

it is funny that with ALL the choices they could have made , they elect a guy coming off a 10 year suspension . besides the obvious guys (mott, cox, brown, pletcher) what about maker , h bond, weaver.....plenty of guys ( and gals ) with a better history . i think dutrow is doing it for a cut rate price , just to get back on the national stage .

Everyone deserves a 2nd chance! It's up to him to stay the course!
I think it was a great move!!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

On a more serious note, If Dutrow had a little more time to work with this horse I might bet him in the Met. Whatever else Dutrow is or does, imo he's also a good horseman. I'm probably going to use him anyway. How many 109 or 111 Beyers can Repo Rocks run?

I used him for 2nd in the Met and just missed on my exacta bet. I should have followed up on that logic and used him again instead of falling for another sucker horse like Charge It after having used Tapit Trice recently. 12 seconds into that race I knew Charge It was doomed and White Abbario was going to run huge.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I used him for 2nd in the Met and just missed on my exacta bet. I should have followed up on that logic and used him again instead of falling for another sucker horse like Charge It after having used Tapit Trice recently. 12 seconds into that race I knew Charge It was doomed and White Abbario was going to run huge.

of course you were doomed, what the heck was the idea with that horse. paceless race, horse runs his best races (only comp fig races are near or on the lead) and he is not hustled at the start. he didnt break great, but he certainly did not break poor.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

of course you were doomed, what the heck was the idea with that horse. paceless race, horse runs his best races (only comp fig races are near or on the lead) and he is not hustled at the start. he didnt break great, but he certainly did not break poor.

Yeah, I've felt like Charge It has been overrated by the intelligentsia ever since his big figure win on a track I thought was conducive to a performance like that. But if you had reasons to try beat Cody's Wish (as I did) he fit close enough to the others and has done his best running on the lead. I thought it was a no brainer to be aggressive and go again in that field. Giant Game had some speed, but imo he was lower quality speed and had benefitted from a biased track last out. When he didn't go, that sucked.

I don't mind losing, but playing a horse I've long thought was overrated and losing to a horse I've long thought was underrated, played last time, and thought was likely to improve under Dutrow was a bit much after keying against Munny's Gold and playing Maple Leaf Mel over Pretty Mischievous and Dorth Vadar.

Next!!

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I used him for 2nd in the Met and just missed on my exacta bet. I should have followed up on that logic and used him again instead of falling for another sucker horse like Charge It after having used Tapit Trice recently. 12 seconds into that race I knew Charge It was doomed and White Abbario was going to run huge.

not knocking your handicapping at all but it seems to me that horses that once won a race by 23 lengths as Charge It did get overbet for the rest of their careers

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Yeah, I've felt like Charge It has been overrated by the intelligentsia ever since his big figure win on a track I thought was conducive to a performance like that. But if you had reasons to try beat Cody's Wish (as I did) he fit close enough to the others and has done his best running on the lead. I thought it was a no brainer to be aggressive and go again in that field. Giant Game had some speed, but imo he was lower quality speed and had benefitted from a biased track last out. When he didn't go, that sucked.

I don't mind losing, but playing a horse I've long thought was overrated and losing to a horse I've long thought was underrated, played last time, and thought was likely to improve under Dutrow was a bit much after keying against Munny's Gold and playing Maple Leaf Mel over Pretty Mischievous and Dorth Vadar.

Next!!

I looked at Charge It before the race and speed figures at first look didn’t hold up after really looking at the chart and looking at the rest of the races on the card those days. His two turn race at Gulfstream with the 102 Beyer didn’t look good after looking at the other races that day. All of them low level allowance, claiming, and msw and drf speed figure based on 3 year best times was the same as the variant. I’d expect a grade 1 runner at two turns to beat those times by at least 5 lengths. Oaklawn Handicap wasn’t a good race. His best races were at Belmont or 1 turn. 1 1/4 mile suburban was a one turn race. FLA Derby was a slow race as well. If I had him I’d have him tight and ready for any race greater than a mile at Belmont.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Geno_Gino

Understood. Fatalities aside, I was attempting to make the point that certain trainers seem to magically move up horses. Before his suspension from training, Rick Dutrow Jr. was one of those trainers, in my opinion. (I'm an old fart and remember his dad Dickie Dutrow as one of the best horsemen in Maryland for many years.)

I see Jaime Ness is back to his magical winning ways as well, and while I looked awful hard at the sprinter he has stretching out in the 8th at Belmont on Friday, I ended up not using him on my ticket.

I cut my teeth at Pimlico and Laurel in the late 70’s. 15 years ago I would have been all over a Dutrow horse in this situation. I guess in the future I’ll bet him like I always did. Dickie Jr gets all the print, but Anthony is no slouch either. I’d love to see someone send a good one Anthony’s way.

[bisket]

If Charge It shows up in the Jockey Club in a few months the odds might be pretty tasty...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by affirmedny

not knocking your handicapping at all but it seems to me that horses that once won a race by 23 lengths as Charge It did get overbet for the rest of their careers

You are welcomed to knock my handicapping. I was knocking my handicapping. I thought the big win in fast time that so many people would point to as demonstrating his potential was bogus to begin with! I thought it was surface aided.

Unless you are using a computer to spit out an odds-line and betting on automatic pilot, a game that requires analysis like this is going to make you vulnerable to not thinking clearly sometimes. I don't hate the fact that I thought he might get the lead, control things, and run very well, but not using White Abarrio also at that price was an unforgivable mistake given my view on both horses.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You are welcomed to knock my handicapping. I was knocking my handicapping. I thought the big win in fast time that so many people would point to as demonstrating his potential was bogus to begin with! I thought it was surface aided.

Unless you are using a computer to spit out an odds-line and betting on automatic pilot, a game that requires analysis like this is going to make you vulnerable to not thinking clearly sometimes. I don't hate the fact that I thought he might get the lead, control things, and run very well, but not using White Abarrio also at that price was an unforgivable mistake given my view on both horses.

The whole point of the handicapping lesson here was that was a prime opportunity to get enormous EV if you were against the chalk. Those opportunities exist everyday and despite not coming up on the right pick its the only way long term you can make money IMO.

[cnollfan]

Originally Posted by affirmedny

not knocking your handicapping at all but it seems to me that horses that once won a race by 23 lengths as Charge It did get overbet for the rest of their careers

Hidden Scroll, overbet his entire career after one race.