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Old 05-31-2023, 07:05 AM   #1
soflant
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Drop or Rise in Class

I am wondering if someone has done a study about the drop or rise in class.
I understand the horses that are dropped in class win more races than those horses who are risen in class. My question is at the end of a meet which type of horses show the much better ROI? Thanks in advance.
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Old 05-31-2023, 11:45 AM   #2
biggestal99
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Originally Posted by soflant View Post
I am wondering if someone has done a study about the drop or rise in class.
I understand the horses that are dropped in class win more races than those horses who are risen in class. My question is at the end of a meet which type of horses show the much better ROI? Thanks in advance.
according to Barry Meadows book “the skeptical handicapper”

droppers have a better ROI than risers.

drop between 20% and 39% in purse value gave the best ROI (0.79) with 15% winners.

Allan
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Old 05-31-2023, 01:23 PM   #3
Robert Fischer
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Statistics generally end up making for trivia, rather than an ROI boost for a horseplayer.

Sometimes you can glean a general model from stats, where you can use it as a guide for specific cases, but especially in basic things like cass drop vs. raise it usually ends up being a thing where the public bets more on a drop and the horses tend to win relatively more on a drop, with the opposite forces present in a class raise. In general the wagering does an accurate job of correcting for the changes.

If we want to win money from this market, we have to find mispriced opportunities using race-specific insights.

I went ahead and wrote a bunch of wisdom regarding how this works in horseplaying.
Discussion, disagreement, race examples, dismissal, name-calling, emojis, etc... are welcome.
Apologies if insights were not preferred to studies and statistics, and in that case, I don't wish to take the thread off track.

Dropping in class - all things being equal (and they never are) you get the same ROI and the horse wins a relatively higher percentage at a relatively lower price. This is also how it is seen by the public. Your job as a player is to see where a flaw in the animal, or a situational issue with this race (perhaps today's lower-class race actually has a stronger field or a pace scenario which is more adverse for this specific horse's running style, or the horse has fraudulent race(s) at a higher class that happened to be dream trips) or various negative red-flags... call for you to bet-against this specific horse at a low-price today.

low attention summary -
Drop?Look for favorite to bet against.

Example - You noted that a horse was unsound and threw him on your watch list. You wake up and are studying your various watch lists for entries and odds, and fortunately a horse from your unsound list(s) was entered as a favorite. You then went to handicap the race and noted that he is a favorite because of the class drop. Because you know of his soundness problem, you can confidently bet against him today.

Raising in class - all things being equal (and they never are) you get the same ROI and the horse wins a relatively lower percentage at a relatively higher price. This is also how it is seen by the public. Your job as a player is to see where a performance-enhancement of the animal, or a situational issue with the race (perhaps today's higher-class race actually has a weaker field or a pace scenario which is more beneficial for this horse's specific running style, or the horse has darkened-form race(s) at a lower class that happened to be nightmare trips) or various positive factors... call for you to bet On this specific horse at a mid-range-to-long price today.

low attention summary - UpInClass??Look for a price horse to bet on.

Example - You wake up and study your various watch-lists. A horse from your superOwner or superTrainer list was entered at 8-1. You then went to handicap the race and noted that a horse was claimed 30 days ago by an owner that uses PEDs and is running for a high% trainer, and noted that the horse is 8-1 because of a going up in class. Better yet, he may have an upgrade or an excuse in a recent unspectacular race for the prior trainer (whom fortunately you consider to be low potency and baselien or below in performance). Because you know of his projected enhanced performance you can confidently bet to win and/or 'key'.


not the best examples at the drop of a hat but some droppers today that you consider opposing;
so finger lakes r3 you got georgies ladies who has issues and is dropping class and from prestigious circuit. Little bit tough to find rival and may overcome, but you get an example.
Belterra r7 uncle charming is a flawed horse that has been dropping.
Thistledown r4 mere bag of shells isn't dropping per se, just a flawed favorite.
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then some up in class to consider betting on
superOwners and superTrainers aren't doing much today.
Horseshoe Indy Race 9 - not really a class hike, but some similar models as he is a First-Time-Starter; BATIBAT... Trainer Tim Eggleston isn't a flashy name, but I've seen a couple of his runners outrun my expectations, and his stats are better t han I expected. Had two works which on paper are impressive for this class, and then what appears on paper to have been a maintenance work last time. Not a great example of a class situation with darkened form or new potent trainer, but today is not presenting many to me. This Horseshoe Indy r9 is mildly interesting. There is some entropy, as the favored Dabney may falter. Should he take $ and falter, with the pari-mutuel system that creates value. Some chaos and randomness could ensue. I've already mentioned the Batibat. The other horse to arrive on with handicapping would be Sequeeker. The is a potential 'key' and if this race was a play, you'd consider opposing the 5/2ml fav (if you like the then move on to a better race), and keying both the and the .
The is not a tremendous looking winning type, but nonetheless he does jump off the page as a reliable contender. 3-back she was showing signs of improved form with a willing finish. Not only did Sequeeker ran two higher difficulty races at Turfway, and in both of her races, there was a strong forward favoring flow.
picture flow =
Today she(the Sequeeker.) is back in Indiana-Bred racing, the 'intent' is there and owner/trainer Lauers know they can pick up a check, so if the indeed falters, she'll be there passing tired rivals and maybe even find herself in contention.
In races like these, should the falter, there is some chance of chaos where some unexpected prices end up on the ticket. There is a 10-cent 'Grand High 5' (Pentafecta) offered, which is notable for the 10-cent minimum offering. Somewhat interesting race.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-31-2023 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 05-31-2023, 04:23 PM   #4
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sorry to disagree with you but droppers are better bets than risers (as you said all things being equal)

better ROI with droppers (study used 200,000 droppers and 100,000 risers)
thats a big enough study for me.

i almost can guarantee that if you looked at your last 1000 horses you bet on to win. you have a better ROI with droppers than with risers.

it is that way with my bets.

Allan
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Old 05-31-2023, 05:39 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
sorry to disagree with you but droppers are better bets than risers (as you said all things being equal)

better ROI with droppers (study used 200,000 droppers and 100,000 risers)
thats a big enough study for me.

i almost can guarantee that if you looked at your last 1000 horses you bet on to win. you have a better ROI with droppers than with risers.

it is that way with my bets.

Allan

So are you suggesting to only bet droppers because the loss of $.21 on the dollar is better than a $.25 loss on the dollar? I would have to believe that the ROI stat in this circumstance would have to be about the 70th most important thing to consider.
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Old 05-31-2023, 05:43 PM   #6
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Class changes are ambiguous without more information.

Here's 3 years of claiming sprints.
The hit rates do go up on the droppers, but no real financial gain.


Not really much to choose from.

This is from Percentages & Probabilities 2022.

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Old 05-31-2023, 05:59 PM   #7
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What I've noticed in my 50 years of betting and handicapping is that drop downs are more likely to win in maiden races than in any other type of race.

In non maiden races, horses running back in the same class are more likely to win, followed by drop downs and lastly horses moving up.

I don't have the stats, but I'm sure somebody here does and can prove me right or wrong.
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Old 05-31-2023, 06:45 PM   #8
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I think you'll generally have an easier time finding value among class droppers than risers.

Horses that move up in class have typically won their last race or at least run very impressively. One exception may be horses that were claimed last out. Everyone knows how to value them though because their form is clear and people know most of the move up trainers.

Horses that are dropping down are sometimes quite a bit better than their speed figures and form against better horses indicates. Those are the types of horses you should be trying to isolate.
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Old 05-31-2023, 07:34 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by P.Rosa View Post
What I've noticed in my 50 years of betting and handicapping is that drop downs are more likely to win in maiden races than in any other type of race.

In non maiden races, horses running back in the same class are more likely to win, followed by drop downs and lastly horses moving up.

I don't have the stats, but I'm sure somebody here does and can prove me right or wrong.
I just did exactly that, in the post just before yours.
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Old 05-31-2023, 09:07 PM   #10
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
sorry to disagree with you but droppers are better bets than risers (as you said all things being equal)

better ROI with droppers (study used 200,000 droppers and 100,000 risers)
thats a big enough study for me.

i almost can guarantee that if you looked at your last 1000 horses you bet on to win. you have a better ROI with droppers than with risers.

it is that way with my bets.

Allan
I am interested in this, and interesting in aeeing any stats or studies.

Also interested in your ideas.

If the ROI really is significantly better on droppers, then it would suggest that something isn't being accounted for.

A simplification would say something such as = "the public is often adjusting based upon speed figures&performance figs, but is underestimating the 'easier' race dynamics in lower class levels which then produce even higher speed figs and performance results."

My impression is more in line with Dave Scbwartz here, that droppers give you a higher hit% and perhaps slightly higher ROI and churn, but that both ways are losers.

That Overall, and in general, the Public is very good at voting for various factors and angles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I just did exactly that, in the post just before yours.


Hey Dave - can you explain your stats a bit more? I'm thinking '0' is 'No change' and up or down is each class level?? is that right? And I see some advanced metrics as well. Explanation would help a slow learner like myself

What I am talking about is going to be apples and oranges to things like a large sample size of results.
I'm looking to bet against flawed favorites when they drop. I have to be right about the flaw and right about other factors in the race (if they have a huge pace advantage, or the field is terrible, I should skip the race even if the favorite is vulnerable in other ways).
Betting against favorites (There's a thread in the racing section w/ CJ's stats) is a terrible proposition to do blindly. You have to be very selective, and you have to be correct.

With horses up in class, I'm looking to bet ON mid-range and long shots. I prefer them to have some darkened form. I'm being very selective just like with the class droppers (meaning I'm passing almost every race, and I'm looking for my angle along with complimentary angles and no tradeoffs or scary opposing angles).
Again, like CJ's stats this is against the grain and generally a terrible strategy to do on a bunch of random horses.

It's a pari-mutuel game, and some of my plays go against what would look like a 'safe' thing and the 'least pain' .
The way I look at it, every horse has a bucket of money filled with Cash 'Votes', and the favorite's bucket is stuffed with cash. If I can beat the favorite, I get that money to split with the other players who won. Sometimes it's not too big a score, even without the favorite winning, but it's almost always somewhat worthwhile.

They don't happen all that often, but I seem to average a handful of <3/1 per day, and then I at least have to go deeper and handicap those 5 or whatever races.
Sometimes it's dry. Sometimes a bunch. I don't know how many on my watch lists 5k? maybe. Maybe 2500 flawed horses. Those you just skim for the low ml odds. It takes ten minutes to check five watchlists with 500 horses each and maybe 10 entries out of each 500 horses in a given day.
Then you go and check the low odds races and see if you have a legit VulnerableFav/Bet-Against...
Also can find one on occasion just doing some race-watching for today's card (hopefully time well-spent on a full-field with some interesting factors going in an interesting direction).

The mid-range and higher price UP IN CLASS 'class hikers', i've already said that a good slice of that pie for my plays are looking for performance enhancers.
It's all relative. I think on Preakness day, that Brittanny Russell had a Mike Repole runner who was moving Allowance to Stakes (if I'm wrong, please don't crucify me). This horse I think paid $5.40 to win or thereabouts... so "it doesn't fit your strategy Jace!" ... but if you think the horse should be even money, and it's 9/5, then it's the same damn fundamental. A higher than deserved price because of the class hike.
It's rare that a horse fits that as a favorite.
A better Brittany Russell example would be Doppelganger and his lucky win in the Carter that paid $37.80. Seemingly a 'failed' graded stakes horse who was coming out of two consecutive allowance wins. Very fortunate trip, but at least could capitalize for me. In a short field and the Tri paid like $650 for $4 ratio.
More into that 2023 Grade 1 Carter Example; The horse that Brittany beat was the favorite Repo Rocks 0.8/1 Jaime Ness project. Repo Rocks paid out the exact same angle four races back when he came back to NYRA for the Grade3 Toboggan and was 10/1!! Crushed in the Bold Ruler for Greg DiPrima transferred to supertrainer Ness, and had just won two lesser Black Type races at Parx. There was also a 'myth' that Ness was less 'potent' at NYRA. So, Repo Rocks won a related race at 10/1 going up in class.
^
If you blindly bet every class hiker you get killed quick, if you blindly bet every super-trainer class hiker you get a slow painful death.

You have to 1.Be Right (not think or 'feel' it, you have to know and understand it) &2.Be Selective (PRICE is always a factor/model that you want to be both generous/big and one you understand why it's big and about where it will be.) (It sure helps a 10/1 shot a whole lot if you also happen to know the favorite to be vulnerable. This is a rare blessing, it's not something you can have a confirmation bias and 'shape' your reasoning to 'fit' your hopes/greed)(Other Complimentary important models like the projected Pace scenario should be in your favor, or at least neutral).

TLDR - Big sample sizes are important, but my strategy involves specific rare opportunitie.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-31-2023 at 09:20 PM.
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Old 05-31-2023, 09:17 PM   #11
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lot's of valid styles of play

the most popular method others at the track employ with class droppers = get a fair price and bet to Win
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Old 05-31-2023, 09:33 PM   #12
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Hey Dave - can you explain your stats a bit more? I'm thinking '0' is 'No change' and up or down is each class level?? is that right? And I see some advanced metrics as well. Explanation would help a slow learner like myself

What I am talking about is going to be apples and oranges to things like a large sample size of results.
I'm looking to bet against flawed favorites when they drop. I have to be right about the flaw and right about other factors in the race (if they have a huge pace advantage, or the field is terrible, I should skip the race even if the favorite is vulnerable in other ways).
Betting against favorites (There's a thread in the racing section w/ CJ's stats) is a terrible proposition to do blindly. You have to be very selective, and you have to be correct.
I'm thinking '0' is 'No change' and up or down is each class level??

Absolutely right.

And I see some advanced metrics as well. Explanation would help a slow learner like myself

Sure.
  • Starts, Pays, Pct are self-explanatory.
  • $Net=Avg return per $2 wagered. Thus, $2.20 would be a 10% advantage, and $1.60 would be 20% disadvantage.
  • IV = Impact Value. Wins / Expected Wins as determined by field size in the individual races.
  • PIV = Pool Impact Value Wins / Pool Expected Wins as determined by the percentage of pool wagered on each horse.
  • DV = Dollar Value. Simply $net / Av. $net in the sample.
  • BV = Betting Value. Simply the average pool pct on each category divided by the avg of the entire sample. (This particular column is where one finds truth in this age.
  • AvPay = Average Pay of the winners.
  • AvOdds = Average Odds across all horses.
  • AvPubCh = Average public choice for that row.

A few points.
  • "-3" means rising today by 3 or more levels.
  • "Above" means dropping today by 5 or more levels.
  • "If the takeout is (say) 17%, how can the average $net be -25%?"
  • "Why are the AvPays lower than the AvOdds would dictate?"


That BV column is really what drives everything important these days.
_______

You said:
Quote:
What I am talking about is going to be apples and oranges to things like a large sample size of results.
I'm looking to bet against flawed favorites when they drop. I have to be right about the flaw and right about other factors in the race (if they have a huge pace advantage, or the field is terrible, I should skip the race even if the favorite is vulnerable in other ways).
My research would absolutely support what you have said.

HSH users call "flawed favorites" BALOs: Bet Against Low Odds horses.

You said:
Quote:
I have to be right about the flaw
Again, my research would support this 100%.
To accomplish this, you have to be able to say something like, "My BALOs lose 30 cents per wagered dollar.""

That demands tracking.

Most people won't make the effort, but the payoff is gigantic.

___________
You said:
Quote:
TLDR - Big sample sizes are important, but my strategy involves specific rare opportunitie.
Does it work?
What do your stats in that situation look like?
___________
For 9 years, from 2012 to 2021, my BALOs lost 55.5 cents per wagered dollar, with BALO races at ~40%. Two years ago that dropped substantially as the game changed via the whales increasing the efficiency of the top 2.5 choices.

Now I am struggling to get them to lose 40 cents per dollar, and I find only about 28% BALO races.
___________
The biggest challenge today is to figure out without using the tote board who the top 2.5 choices are going to be.

That's where the BV (Betting Value) become invaluable.

*I've not used the tote board to make a wagering decision in a decade.
(The * is about taking a glance to see if the BALO is 8/1 or above in the gate, which makes him an automatic bet.)

I'd record videos to show how this works but have never been able to see any interest.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 05-31-2023 at 09:41 PM.
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Old 06-01-2023, 07:49 AM   #13
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In regard to the original question, please find a JCAPPER database break out for roughly 20,000 plays. As was noted in an earlier post, there are different ways to assess class shift. This breakout is by Purse Value.

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Old 06-01-2023, 08:22 AM   #14
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For me I wouldn't want to go into any race with any kind of pre conceived things without looking at it first.
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Old 06-25-2023, 12:57 AM   #15
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Talking

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For me I wouldn't want to go into any race with any kind of pre conceived things without looking at it first.



I'm have, and will go in this direction, yours.



I'm impressed with the stats and insight that the PA members here have provided. Thank you.



After 40 years as a bettor, and pretty much the last 15 taking racing seriously, and of that maybe half being involved in total race analysis / wagering strategies I still haven't built the kind of wealth that I could play those type margins that lean one way or another, however I give all these type posts herein consideration when it comes to a pick em between a couple of horses and 1 is ok and 2 is too expensive to the correct winning margin will get the nod!


I usually keep the volume muted on Mohawk, but just recently Randy Waples who does the pre-race analysis went bonkers and said he always preferred (as a driver) and still does (as a handicapper) a horse moving up doing well opposed to an avg or below avg contender dropping.
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