Drop or Rise in Class

[pandy]

Drop Downs are one of the biggest angles, in my opinion. But, naturally, you can't just bet every horse that drops down. However, let's say that you're a spot play bettor who is looking to bet win or exacta keys and you do your own handicapping, be it paper and pen or computer-based, and you ONLY bet on horses that are taking key drops in class. As long as you avoid heavy favorites or obvious bad underlays, you will have an advantage over most bettors.

The reason being is that many horses wake up or improve sharply when dropped in class, so you can catch good payoffs because the horse's don't have obvious form or speed figure advantages.

[46zilzal]

Class is a MAN MADE leveling: horse don't know about it. They just run to their level of from and ability.

[zerosky]

I think Trainer Plays also have to be factored in, oftentimes you will see a claimed horse put in above its head before dropping back for the money shot.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Class is a MAN MADE leveling: horse don't know about it. They just run to their level of from and ability.

IMO, ability is largely captured by the fractions and final times, but there are more subtle things going on in races that are not captured. Also, at the finish, not all horses have used equal amounts of their energy reserve. So if you alter the fractions it has a different impact on different horses. Some of these more subtle things don’t get exposed until the competition or trip demands it. Then the cheaper ones get outrun or used up and the classier ones reveal there was a little more in the tank than they had revealed prior. Shifts in the quality of competition can also impact the times.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, ability is largely captured by the fractions and final times, but there are more subtle things going on in races that are not captured. Also, at the finish, not all horses have used equal amounts of their energy reserve. So if you alter the fractions it has a different impact on different horses. Some of these more subtle things don’t get exposed until the competition or trip demands it. Then the cheaper ones get outrun or used up and the classier ones reveal there was a little more in the tank than they had revealed prior. Shifts in the quality of competition can also impact the times.

There's no doubt that the quality of competition impacts time. I did a lot of research on this years ago and I developed a dropdown system based on that research. As I've said before, I ran winter track in high school and I witnessed this myself. Running against runners who were similar or slower to me, I ran faster times. It was easier to run, less stressful. When I ran against a faster field of runners, I not only ran slower, but I felt more fatigued. It was a lot harder because against the slower runners I could move my arms and legs freely and get into a smooth no-stressed stride. When I ran against better fields, I had runners all around me because it was a tighter pack, and the added stress of not being able to stride easily impacted my time. So it's not just the actual fractions and time, it's how bunched up the horses are. That's why sometimes you'll see a horse lose by 10 lengths in a 1:12 sprint in a MSW race and then win a maiden claiming race in 1:12.

That's why so many maidens improve sharply when they drop in for a tag.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by pandy

There's no doubt that the quality of competition impacts time. I did a lot of research on this years ago and I developed a dropdown system based on that research. As I've said before, I ran winter track in high school and I witnessed this myself. Running against runners who were similar or slower to me, I ran faster times. It was easier to run, less stressful. When I ran against a faster field of runners, I not only ran slower, but I felt more fatigued. It was a lot harder because against the slower runners I could move my arms and legs freely and get into a smooth no-stressed stride. When I ran against better fields, I had runners all around me because it was a tighter pack, and the added stress of not being able to stride easily impacted my time. So it's not just the actual fractions and time, it's how bunched up the horses are. That's why sometimes you'll see a horse lose by 10 lengths in a 1:12 sprint in a MSW race and then win a maiden claiming race in 1:12.

That's why so many maidens improve sharply when they drop in for a tag.

Agreed.

The stress part of running next to a horse that is equally fast or even faster, or racing between two horses like that, or having multiple horses take turns making bids at you, is hard for me to quantify, but you can see it has an impact if you study race flows (or have experienced it like you). The higher the quality of race, the faster the pace will tend to be, the faster and more demanding those short battles between calls for position will tend to be, and the more competitively the race will tend to be run.

[xtb]

Originally Posted by pandy

There's no doubt that the quality of competition impacts time. I did a lot of research on this years ago and I developed a dropdown system based on that research. As I've said before, I ran winter track in high school and I witnessed this myself. Running against runners who were similar or slower to me, I ran faster times. It was easier to run, less stressful. When I ran against a faster field of runners, I not only ran slower, but I felt more fatigued. It was a lot harder because against the slower runners I could move my arms and legs freely and get into a smooth no-stressed stride. When I ran against better fields, I had runners all around me because it was a tighter pack, and the added stress of not being able to stride easily impacted my time. So it's not just the actual fractions and time, it's how bunched up the horses are. That's why sometimes you'll see a horse lose by 10 lengths in a 1:12 sprint in a MSW race and then win a maiden claiming race in 1:12.

That's why so many maidens improve sharply when they drop in for a tag.

"Pace Pressure" as Randy Giles describes it.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by xtb

"Pace Pressure" as Randy Giles describes it.

Yes, a good term. But, I think a lot of handicappers think pace pressure is always shown in the numbers, but my research indicated that isn't always true. We can put too much emphasis on the actual pace figures or fractions. That's important, but more so when horses are racing at the same level. Like if a horse has soft pace figures in MSW and keeps racing in MSW races, that's a bad sign, but the same horse could drop into a maiden claiming race and win and suddenly earn improved pace and final time figures.