*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[REBel]

The 9 shown above broke 3rd, in 4th entering lane chasing the speed and had nothing left for the drive. 5/1

[green80]

top power in the 8th @ PID $23.80.

[NorCalGreg]

Been doing some thinking on a quick and dirty speed rating par. Forumite bobphilo mentioned something interesting in that crazy bias thread. He was talking about even pace figs--in a horse's running line--I believe he said he liked to see even pace figs----87- 88- 87, for example.

I've always considered that a BIG POSITIVE myself; the horse handled the pace very well, as opposed to common pacelines as 84- 94- 62...70 -67 -90.....or even worse: 92 -105 -60... if the horse with a paceline like that last doesn't figure to be alone up front--he's tossed immediately.
Like he said, it's a "quick and dirty" way to look for a possible standout.

I like to use speed ratings as another quick and dirty "qualifier". Damn near everything I do in handicapping is quick and dirty, so why stop now? Randy Giles--in his fascinating studies of pace-boxes, mentions using speed ratings as a qualifier. Why waste time on horses that very probably have no chance at all--especially at the lower levels? If we can eliminate them---"trim the fat" so to speak, we have less horses to worry about. Even their probable pace contribution if any, doesn't worry me. What this does is open up the race and give me a clearer picture, when I'm only considering 4 or 5 horses.

The race below I've included, because with my quick and dirty speed par method I'm proposing--made it crystal clear (okay NOTHING in handicapping is CRYSTAL CLEAR)..made it clear a longshot may have something to say in the end.

Here's the SPEED PAR METHOD: the Bris speed showing in Pace View is, of course--the best of last two. I take the average of the top three, which in this 8th race @ ALB--we have a top-3 of 93--90--88. About a 90 AVG . My idea is to just eliminate any horse that hasn't come withing 10 of that figure.
So any horse that doesn't show at least an 80 is out. That eliminates 5 horses right there.

The race is a lot more clear now, isn't it? They're all E/P types--but of the 5 left--one horse with a huge late-pace fig stands out--EASY TOPPER @ 20-1. He's no lock to win with the info at hand--but doesn't he definitely look worth a bet at a possible huge price? He's coming off a layoff---which I don't like at all, but his trainer shows a +$1.30 ROI on layoff horses.

With all the speed in the race, a trainer that can win with a rested horse--showing a huge late pace fig, and 20-1 ML--adds up to a sweet wager. Maybe I'll get something like a 'SPEED PAR' into the "Trainer Moves" program that may be next--it's so easy to calculate in your head-- it may not be necessary if we need room for other info.

EASY TOPPER paid $30 to win...one of the eliminated horses--SILENT DEHERE ran 2nd....but we aren't playing exactas here, so who cares?

Something to think about--NCG
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[NorCalGreg]

Wonder if our mojo is still working @ Belmont---one way to find out:


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[green80]

top power is having a good day at FL so far, 3 of the 1st 4, 9.10, 6.80, 3.30

[green80]

at FL top power 6 wins out of 9 races.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

at FL top power 6 wins out of 9 races.

That's great--even a couple decent prices @ FLX. You know PV Pro nailed all 9 winners @ FLX one day.

"DUCKS" are doing great this week: I know we had a $40 and a couple $30 already this week--nailed another at APX today. I haven't looked at the remaining cards except CDX--see one there-- RUBY RUMBA.

If you don't know how we go "duck hunting"...GET THE SCRATCHES FIRST---then click the #1POWER. Any horse in double digit ML odds? There's your DUCK. Power Number is designed to select the most likely winner--that's all.
Sometimes that "most likely winner" is 10-1+

This was the DUCK at Arlington:

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[green80]

Has anybody kept a running tab on these "ducks" to see if they win often enough to keep you in the + column? I see another job coming

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

Has anybody kept a running tab on these "ducks" to see if they win often enough to keep you in the + column? I see another job coming

It's not completely that simple--some tracks RARELY have any. Those are the best, in my experience. Some tracks have half-dozen a day---those are the ones to avoid--like the recent KD meet.

Ducks aplenty @ KD--lot's of longshots won, they just weren't "ours". My theory on that is you have horses coming from all over for those fat purses--Several races would have 2 or 3 at once. I tried to be very selective--use common sense.....didn't work for me there. I would bet one of two in a race---the OTHER one would win...stuff like that.

What I'm getting at---be a little suspicious if you see more than 1 or 2. And tracks like FLX or LRC, etc---that never have ANY...usually the DUCK will be a maiden race with little info on most of the starters. Sort of a "false duck"

What I know about LAST RACE PACE LINES, TOP POWER, etc...comes from looking at maybe 10K of these races, lined up in this manner. If you look at anything long enough--patterns emerge. Some are unprogrammable because the "pattern" is a series of unconscious events--that you know exactly what it is, but you simply can't put this "situation" onto software. Hell....you probably can't even write it down, perfectly.

I'd still be interested in an overall view of these plays---tomorrow is Friday--I'll post 'em up when I can.

I was thinking about the "100-race" testing....what does a good longshot player have for a strike rate? 5%? 10%? 15%? Probably somewhere in
there. It depends on our definition of what a "longshot" is. Mine is a payoff of $20+. If we averaged a $25.00 mutual--we need 8% to break even.
100 races...8 winners @ $25 = $200. Exactly what we wagered on those 100 races.

These wagers HAVE to be made after scratches--not sure why, but when the big scary favorite is scratched--and a DUCK is moved into the top spot, they seem to win more than their fair share. Happened today @ APX.

So I'll keep a record--won't be able to post them AFTER SCRATCHES sometimes...if not I'll just skip the day or skip that track, whatever. What gets posted will all be legit plays.

It will take a while to get to 100--

Let's see what happens--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Thanks to PV aficionado Ron (REB)

Coming up

RPx 7th Race IMALITTLEHAZY @ 15-1

ALB 6th Race DREAMCATCHER 10-1

Keep in mind we're shooting for 10% strike rate on these....

Also I see a chance to put my SPEED PAR METHOD to work

ALB 3rd Race ALMOSTEVENWITHEVAN...not a big price, just an example of how "trimming the fat" shows a different race. All of a sudden this 7-2 shot looks dominant. You can go over entire cards at lower tier tracks to find these:
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EDIT: I just scratch the horses that don't "qualify" ---there are other horses in this race, they just appear in here as scratched--ncg

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Thanks to PV aficionado Ron (REB)

Coming up

RPx 7th Race IMALITTLEHAZY @ 15-1

ALB 6th Race DREAMCATCHER 10-1 $9.60

Keep in mind we're shooting for 10% strike rate on these....

Also I see a chance to put my SPEED PAR METHOD to work

ALB 3rd Race ALMOSTEVENWITHEVAN...not a big price, just an example of how "trimming the fat" shows a different race. All of a sudden this 7-2 shot looks dominant. You can go over entire cards at lower tier tracks to find these:
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EDIT: I just scratch the horses that don't "qualify" ---there are other horses in this race, they just appear in here as scratched--ncg

ALB 3rd race ALMOSTEVENWITHEVEN ----late scratch

One of the 2 DUCKS won but paid a paltry $9.60---we'll need a lot more than that to reach profitability.

Where are the EXOTIC beta-testers, with the fascinating feedback on how to go about making an exotics program out of PV info???

It may not have been that great an idea--but I do have a cool logo for it.
Just can't slap something together and sell it---may just go in another direction with TRAINER MOVES.

The deal with this logo is---I can change it in a heartbeat, from EXOTIC to TRAINER MOVES....I was thinking about making a show parlay program--since LIGHT is a professional show bettor, he could be my spokesman --
thinking of calling it:

Pace View ~ SHOW 'NUFF.

What ya think, LIGHT? I know you read every single word I type up here

Let me know--NCG
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[NorCalGreg]

This is a TRAINER MOVES spot play--see how it does
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[NorCalGreg]

* TOP ABILITY / STAKES RACES @ PARX

7TH GRANNY'S KITTEN 7-2

8TH CYRUS ALEXANDER 6-1

9TH KLINGON WARRIOR 20-1

10TH SONGBIRD 1-2

11TH NYQUIST 5-2

[NorCalGreg]

ALB

3RD HOMER'S WHISKEY GAL 15-1

4TH GOLD RUNNER WHO 10-1

LRL

5TH INVOLUNTARY 10-1

7TH HE'LL PAY 10-1

RPX

1ST DIANNE CANT RETIRE 10-1

8TH DREAMING BLUE 12-1

good luck today-NCG

[jim michalak]

#1 in ability points (+38) in race 2 devilish grin placed at 25/1 paying $17.60. $2 box exacta with favorite #5 glennevan paid $132.00.