Gamine vs. Swiss Skydiver

[classhandicapper]

The Oaks is suddenly looking like it could be one of the best races of the year so far. The 3yo filly division is almost as strong as the older mare division and a few of the promising 3yo fillies are not even in action right now.

[classhandicapper]

Swiss Skydiver was given a Beyer of 102 for the Alabama, but I think the race may have been broken out and tweaked down as the only 2 turn race because it looks to me like the actual figure was 106 based on the variant used for the rest of the card.

[jay68802]

I ran the matchup through my little spreadsheet. The two horses are separated by .014 points. In over 500 races, I have never had two horses in the same race that close to each other.

Really looking forward to the race.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Swiss Skydiver was given a Beyer of 102 for the Alabama, but I think the race may have been broken out and tweaked down as the only 2 turn race because it looks to me like the actual figure was 106 based on the variant used for the rest of the card.

I actually did the same thing, played this one separately. Said on Twitter exactly what you said, could have been three points higher or so but I'm fine with it as is looking at the also rans.

[metro]

Speech sitting in the catbird seat.

[Tor Ekman]

Originally Posted by metro

Speech sitting in the catbird seat.

Worked a bullet at DelMar, don’t sleep on her

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by metro

Speech sitting in the catbird seat.

Lot of front end speed in the Oaks and Speech could be one of them... but can't say I have yet found a true Abel Tasman type that will catch them in the stretch. Chalky race on paper but rarely runs that way.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I actually did the same thing, played this one separately. Said on Twitter exactly what you said, could have been three points higher or so but I'm fine with it as is looking at the also rans.

We’ll have to see how much speed is in the race, but IMO it’s an interesting matchup because I think Gamine is the faster of the two, but we know Swiss Skydiver can easily get the distance and has the ability to go or sit just off depending on the circumstances. We don’t know that about Gamine yet. If she goes hard, I’m not so sure I’d want to be the one running with her.

The funny thing is that I was thinking of taking a shot against Gamine at 9F if some other quality speed was signed on, but Swiss Skydiver is getting so much attention off that win, Gamine may go off a little longer than I thought.

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

We’ll have to see how much speed is in the race, but IMO it’s an interesting matchup because I think Gamine is the faster of the two, but we know Swiss Skydiver can easily get the distance and has the ability to go or sit just off depending on the circumstances. We don’t know that about Gamine yet. If she goes hard, I’m not so sure I’d want to be the one running with her.

The funny thing is that I was thinking of taking a shot against Gamine at 9F if some other quality speed was signed on, but Swiss Skydiver is getting so much attention off that win, Gamine may go off a little longer than I thought.

I think we could be looking at a 8-9 horse field. Maybe I'm wrong but hard to see a full field of 14 with Gamine and Swiss Skydiver signed on.

There's know way Ken McPeek want's Swiss Skydiver to get caught up in a speed dual with Gamine. In my opinion it comes down to whether or not Gamine handles the track and 9f. If she does I think she wins and possibly quite easily. If she doesn't Swiss Skydiver and Speech go right by her in the stretch.

[burnsy]

Gamine is probably faster off the block but watching that Alabama once Swiss Skydiver gets into stride she cruises pretty fast without burning energy. And it doesn’t let up . That’s what I like about her. Crystal Ball was drowning before the second turn and ended up no where. Skydiver ran almost the same pace and pulled away. I just like the fact they chose the Alabama and Gamine did not. Then Baffert sends his “second string” in there and she got absolutely crushed after losing a G 1 by a head over the same track. Antoinette then came out of the Oaks Sunday and wired the field after finishing 5 lengths behind Crystal Ball. The horses do seem evenly matched so for someone like me the price determines everything. That’s just how I bet and it’s why the “debate” gets out of hand when I see it. I take the price almost every time in these situations and try to keep my “fan brain” out of the mix. Trying to make money I have plenty of photos and posters of my favorite horses. Even with that said. I can see why they took on the boys, that Skydiver rides the turns and finishes like a monster. If she repeats the last two efforts Gamine will be the hardest race yet.

[f2tornado]

I have little double Gamine is faster through a mile. It doesn't look like she's gonna fall off much through a 9F event given her LP figures. The one to beat. Swiss is a nice horse but tails off in the late stages. Probably the next logical one to win if Gamine doesn't fire. Maybe Baffert will run out of magic oats.