Mahoning Valley 20 cent Pick 6 - Mandatory Payout on 12/28

[ReplayRandall]

With the 6 winning the last race....Pick-6 paid- $930.10

[sjk]

Congrats. $930.10

[SoCalCircuit]

Thanks. Unfortunately only about a $100 profit but I'll take it. Thanks for all the handicapping tips - my first time playing Mahoning.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

Yea the clown onTVG went &

Kevin Grigsby (@kgrigyTVG) tweeted at 4:54 PM on Wed, Dec 28, 2016:
@ChristinaBlackr @ScottTVG here's proof. Nice job Scotty. @TVG https://t.co/Ah3KHdewso
(https://twitter.com/kgrigyTVG/status...613688320?s=09)

[mountainman]

It was hardly a wide-closer's track, but I did think the rail was somewhat dead and speed had the worst of it. Not extreme, but subtle biases.

You wanted to race 2nd or 3rd while buffered out from the wood.

Tuff beat with the front-running 3-horse in that restricted str/alw that drew such a weak field.

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by mountainman

It was hardly a wide-closer's track, but I did think the rail was somewhat dead and speed had the worst of it. Not extreme, but subtle biases.

You wanted to race 2nd or 3rd while buffered out from the wood.

Tuff beat with the front-running 3-horse in that restricted str/alw that drew such a weak field.

I put all my eggs in one basket in Race 4, the starter Allowance and 1st leg of the Pick 6. I thought for sure Clouston's #5 Za Woodman would stalk the pace and blow by easily. Terrible decision, as I spread too much later on. $930 was a true Christmas gift for the must give away Pick 6. A healthy mix of carryover money, caveman tickets spending over $1000 and unbelievable amount of straight .20 tickets and quick picks added up to the juicy payout. I ended up with 5 of 6 on my 3 tickets, all dead after leg 1.

Early in the meet, inside speed was very good. After the lingering snow and cold rains hit about 2 weeks ago the surface did indeed change. Moisture was still in the track, the result of thaw/freeze/thaw/freeze cycle. This could continue into the new year and meet. Previous meets were similar, as the rail became dead. Refer to my earlier post about conditions, trainers, jockeys, etc. The smart jocks will catch on quickly to any changing biases.

RR

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

I put all my eggs in one basket in Race 4, the starter Allowance and 1st leg of the Pick 6. I thought for sure Clouston's #5 Za Woodman would stalk the pace and blow by easily. Terrible decision, as I spread too much later on. $930 was a true Christmas gift for the must give away Pick 6. A healthy mix of carryover money, caveman tickets spending over $1000 and unbelievable amount of straight .20 tickets and quick picks added up to the juicy payout. I ended up with 5 of 6 on my 3 tickets, all dead after leg 1.

Early in the meet, inside speed was very good. After the lingering snow and cold rains hit about 2 weeks ago the surface did indeed change. Moisture was still in the track, the result of thaw/freeze/thaw/freeze cycle. This could continue into the new year and meet. Previous meets were similar, as the rail became dead. Refer to my earlier post about conditions, trainers, jockeys, etc. The smart jocks will catch on quickly to any changing biases.

RR

Most of my notes-and I watch replays everyday- record the track as pro-rail or anti- wide for a near-two week period starting nov 30. Somewhat surprisingly, legitimate speed biases have been somewhat rare-even when wide finishers struggle. That's a big reason why I distinguish between pro-rail and anti-wide trends. Race-conditions, of course, are a staple of my handicapping, a natural offshoot of my day job and place of employment.

Look for more upsets if an anti-rail trend does take hold. That's a bias not conducive to cashing a high percentage of tickets. As far as potent barns, for me that's a function of value, and I always watch closely for emergent outfits flying under the radar.

I do not , by the way, have much faith in the ability of riders to discern and exploit a path bias. Bur given good value, I'm very willing to speculate on prospective trips.

The clocker there, a member of my officiating crew at mnr, did give me a heads-up that some cushion had been added prior to Wednesday's card, and that the rail would be deep.

Tx for the response, Ron, You're an exceptional handicapper, and I value your input.

[bello]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Most of my notes-and I watch replays everyday- record the track as pro-rail or anti- wide for a near-two week period starting nov 30. Somewhat surprisingly, legitimate speed biases have been somewhat rare-even when wide finishers struggle. That's a big reason why I distinguish between pro-rail and anti-wide trends. Race-conditions, of course, are a staple of my handicapping, a natural offshoot of my day job and place of employment.

Look for more upsets if an anti-rail trend does take hold. That's a bias not conducive to cashing a high percentage of tickets. As far as potent barns, for me that's a function of value, and I always watch closely for emergent outfits flying under the radar.

I do not , by the way, have much faith in the ability of riders to discern and exploit a path bias. Bur given good value, I'm very willing to speculate on prospective trips.

The clocker there, a member of my officiating crew at mnr, did give me a heads-up that some cushion had been added prior to Wednesday's card, and that the rail would be deep.

Tx for the response, Ron, You're an exceptional handicapper, and I value your input.

Great posts guys. Having a a great mountaineer meet I really want to like Mahoning and so far so good. The day of the cancellation and a coupe of days prior, anything off the rail had no shot. Evened out some the other day. I was a dumbass eaving the Woobine shipper off my ticket leg 2 for all the marbles. Followed up with a 2x3x3x2 P4 which paid pretty well. Keep the comments flowing guys. RRpic, your observations on horses to play or avoid are right on the money. Early in the meet may be the time to play here.

[rrpic6]

Was checking Twinspires Players Pools. They played $4,810 worth of tickets in the Pick 6. Hit twice. Winning tickets cost $1764 and $720. Their BIG ticket cost $2240. Knocked out in 1st leg (as was I) by singleing #5 Za Woodman. I don't feel so bad now, as the ticket I gave out on my tipsheet also singled #5 and had 5 of 6, but only cost $48.00. No sour grapes tho. As you may know, that was my gig back in the day.

RR

[Maximillion]

I dont mind slow horses and the cards here have been better than i expected... but i kinda get the impression the horses here are not only racing against each other but the racetrack itself....sort of like Parx.
The nature of the beast i guess this time of year,and some may like it that way(which I get)....just wondering if they could improve handle even more if things were a little different.(Perhaps not).

[mountainman]

Tuesday's track played slightly in favor of pace-types, but with one caveat: While wide closers had by far the worst of it, some runners finding seams were able to score from behind.

Mark the 11 horse from race #8 as extremely live next start. And the 3 horse from race #9 ran tons the best, but don't expect much price in the wake of that fast-closing second.

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I dont mind slow horses and the cards here have been better than i expected... but i kinda get the impression the horses here are not only racing against each other but the racetrack itself....sort of like Parx.
The nature of the beast i guess this time of year,and some may like it that way(which I get)....just wondering if they could improve handle even more if things were a little different.(Perhaps not).

Handle has taken off during the Holidays, on site and thru ADW's. 1.4 million was a record for an 8 race card Monday. 1.6 million Tuesday was aided by Parx and Turf Paradise cancelling mid-card. Hopefully Mountainman and myself can continue to supply some nuggets here. Lots of "smart" money being bet somewhere, as horses that are pounded down far below the ML set by John McGary (one of the best in the business IMO) seem to win quite often and easily lately. Ex. Race 1 on Tuesday. #2 Tia Gego ML 6-1. Wins in hand at 3-5. A newly turned 3 year old filly beating older. My 2nd choice on tipsheet BTW, but unbettable when gates opened.

RR

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

Handle has taken off during the Holidays, on site and thru ADW's. 1.4 million was a record for an 8 race card Monday. 1.6 million Tuesday was aided by Parx and Turf Paradise cancelling mid-card. Hopefully Mountainman and myself can continue to supply some nuggets here. Lots of "smart" money being bet somewhere, as horses that are pounded down far below the ML set by John McGary (one of the best in the business IMO) seem to win quite often and easily lately. Ex. Race 1 on Tuesday. #2 Tia Gego ML 6-1. Wins in hand at 3-5. A newly turned 3 year old filly beating older. My 2nd choice on tipsheet BTW, but unbettable when gates opened.

RR

Spot on, pal. Two-dollar locals aren't pumping 1.4 mil thru the windows there, and with increased handle has come some well-informed money.

Tia Gego was a horse I made a point of arriving in time to bet, but the low odds were both unexpected and an absolute deal breaker. Having raced very alertly in shorter sprints, Tia Gego figured to shake loose in a 6-furlong race devoid of speed, and had dueled bravely with a much better filly in her recent. Ominously, these nuances were seized upon by a wagering public that seems less stupid by the minute.

Again today, I thought wide trips were at a significant disadvantage.

[Vinman]

With a high temp of 19 forecast at Mahoning Valley, what are the chances they'll run Saturday? Turfway cancelled tonight due to cold.

Vinman

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by Vinman

With a high temp of 19 forecast at Mahoning Valley, what are the chances they'll run Saturday? Turfway cancelled tonight due to cold.

Vinman

No word yet if MVR will cancel today as of 8:55 AM. Tractors wore working throughout the night. If they do run, Sambucca Steve, #10 in race 6 deserves some attention at ML 6-1. His 2 wins in the Fall '16 meet came on nearly frozen surfaces. He owned the track record at 6 furlongs set on 2-28-15, also on a frozen surface, until it was broken last January on a frozen track, of course.

RR