The $12M Pegasus World Cup Thread

[AskinHaskin]

Wake up, people.


If California Chrome were to run his best-ever race, in this his supposed final career start, he would have only a chance to top Arrogate.

Arrogate, by contrast, is suddenly a 4yo, with lots of remaining upside potential.


'Chrome already showed what he could do with a monster pace edge and an opponent racing wide and losing ground much of the way. And it was insufficient for the challenge which is at hand once again.

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://twitter.com/hashtag/PegasusWorldCup?src=hash

Scroll down a little for the latest Tweet. Check out the photo of Arrogate working at Santa Anita.

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/a...secret-racing/

[letswastemoney]

Someone on Facebook told me Arrogate isn't training well. I know not to trust rumors, but he wrote the information came from Bruno.

[Zaf]

Who is Bruno ?

Z

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Who is Bruno ?

Z

Bruno de Julio? He's a workout expert out here.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

Wake up, people.


If California Chrome were to run his best-ever race, in this his supposed final career start, he would have only a chance to top Arrogate.

Arrogate, by contrast, is suddenly a 4yo, with lots of remaining upside potential.


'Chrome already showed what he could do with a monster pace edge and an opponent racing wide and losing ground much of the way. And it was insufficient for the challenge which is at hand once again.

The real players on this board aren't likely playing this race.

You have 2 extremely debateable winners, and both at 8/5 or less in a "supposed" 12 horse field.

Bet your life on it. I honestly wish you all the best.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

The real players on this board aren't likely playing this race.

You have 2 extremely debateable winners, and both at 8/5 or less in a "supposed" 12 horse field.

Bet your life on it. I honestly wish you all the best.

How is this race different than the BCC?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

How is this race different than the BCC?

I don't know, maybe the track and distance for starters along with a still lightly raced 4YO in Arrogate?

Chrome will show up. He always does. He'll at least run a B+ race which is good enough to beat everybody else entered outside of Arrogate. (Yes, no different than the BCC).

The real question comes down to Arrogate. As a 4YO, will he be as good or even better than his BCC and Travers? (very legit possibility). Will he take to Gulfstream? Is he an every time out consistent type of horse?

Thus, I see 2 options of betting on this race:

1. Chrome on top and Arrogate not in the 2 hole. Find 1 or 2 horses to complete the Exacta and fire large.
2. Arrogate over Chrome and find your 3rd and 4th place horses amid the rest without "all'ing" the rest, but finding 2 or 3 to get the job done and, again, bet heavy.

To me, you have to be 100% right in order to make money on the race. There is no floating, or spreading, to cover yourself.

As largely a 5 to 6/1 or larger odds bettor, this is an extremely tough race to bet. Heck, I was in attendance of the BCC and bet a mere $10 to WP on Melatonin for nothing more than craps and giggles.

While I've been pretty harsh on the prospects of this race, I do love that we get to see a rematch between Arrogate and Chrome. I can't even remember a more anticipated rematch like this race since.....?

In the end, I'll probably end up putting $10 to WP on some no chancer and just enjoy the race.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I don't know, maybe the track and distance for starters along with a still lightly raced 4YO in Arrogate?

Chrome will show up. He always does. He'll at least run a B+ race which is good enough to beat everybody else entered outside of Arrogate. (Yes, no different than the BCC).

The real question comes down to Arrogate. As a 4YO, will he be as good or even better than his BCC and Travers? (very legit possibility). Will he take to Gulfstream? Is he an every time out consistent type of horse?

Thus, I see 2 options of betting on this race:

1. Chrome on top and Arrogate not in the 2 hole. Find 1 or 2 horses to complete the Exacta and fire large.
2. Arrogate over Chrome and find your 3rd and 4th place horses amid the rest without "all'ing" the rest, but finding 2 or 3 to get the job done and, again, bet heavy.

To me, you have to be 100% right in order to make money on the race. There is no floating, or spreading, to cover yourself.

As largely a 5 to 6/1 or larger odds bettor, this is an extremely tough race to bet. Heck, I was in attendance of the BCC and bet a mere $10 to WP on Melatonin for nothing more than craps and giggles.

While I've been pretty harsh on the prospects of this race, I do love that we get to see a rematch between Arrogate and Chrome. I can't even remember a more anticipated rematch like this race since.....?

In the end, I'll probably end up putting $10 to WP on some no chancer and just enjoy the race.

My point was the complaint that the race is unbettable due to having 2 very heavy favorites. These are the same 2 who were the only ones most could envision winning the BC, so what's different?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I don't know, maybe the track and distance for starters along with a still lightly raced 4YO in Arrogate?

Chrome will show up. He always does. He'll at least run a B+ race which is good enough to beat everybody else entered outside of Arrogate. (Yes, no different than the BCC).

The real question comes down to Arrogate. As a 4YO, will he be as good or even better than his BCC and Travers? (very legit possibility). Will he take to Gulfstream? Is he an every time out consistent type of horse?

Thus, I see 2 options of betting on this race:

1. Chrome on top and Arrogate not in the 2 hole. Find 1 or 2 horses to complete the Exacta and fire large.
2. Arrogate over Chrome and find your 3rd and 4th place horses amid the rest without "all'ing" the rest, but finding 2 or 3 to get the job done and, again, bet heavy.

To me, you have to be 100% right in order to make money on the race. There is no floating, or spreading, to cover yourself.

As largely a 5 to 6/1 or larger odds bettor, this is an extremely tough race to bet. Heck, I was in attendance of the BCC and bet a mere $10 to WP on Melatonin for nothing more than craps and giggles.

While I've been pretty harsh on the prospects of this race, I do love that we get to see a rematch between Arrogate and Chrome. I can't even remember a more anticipated rematch like this race since.....?

In the end, I'll probably end up putting $10 to WP on some no chancer and just enjoy the race.

Right now, I leaning toward your number 2 option with Arrogate first, then Chrome...now I must look for contenders to complete a part wheel a:b:cde for $3.....and maybe a/b/cde/cde $1 super for $6.

Now I will look for 3 contenders to fill the bottom of the ticket....which three are the most likely candidates to run 3rd, 4th?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

My point was the complaint that the race is unbettable due to having 2 very heavy favorites. These are the same 2 who were the only ones most could envision winning the BC, so what's different?

I think the desire to call this race "bettable" says very bad things about betting discipline.

The takeout is somewhere between 15 and 25 percent. The likelihood that there is any bet here that offers a significant enough overlay to beat the takeout and offer a positive expected value is extremely low.

Now if on the day of the race you see something on the tote board or the exacta probables, fine. Then I am wrong.

But I doubt I am.And people here need to ask themselves why they so badly want to bet this no value race. You have to pass something or you are just a gambler.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think the desire to call this race "bettable" says very bad things about betting discipline.

The takeout is somewhere between 15 and 25 percent. The likelihood that there is any bet here that offers a significant enough overlay to beat the takeout and offer a positive expected value is extremely low.

Now if on the day of the race you see something on the tote board or the exacta probables, fine. Then I am wrong.

But I doubt I am.And people here need to ask themselves why they so badly want to bet this no value race. You have to pass something or you are just a gambler.

What do you think a cold $1 Trifecta Arrogate/Crome/Keen Ice would pay?
6-1?

[menifee]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

What do you think a cold $1 Trifecta Arrogate/Crome/Keen Ice would pay?
6-1?

It depends if Gun Runner gets in. There's a report on DRF that me might get out of quarantine in team and run in place of a horse. If he runs, then that TRI would probably pay 15-1 to 20-1. If he does not run, then I would imagine that TRI would pay 10-1 to 12-1.

[Racetrack Playa]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

What do you think a cold $1 Trifecta Arrogate/Crome/Keen Ice would pay?
6-1?

What did it pay last time?, divided by 2

Arrogate hasn't been over the track yet, still in Cali.

crome? #LETSGOCHAMP

too early for me to even look at contenders

I ll play tri and sup, then pickies with a confident single