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Old Today, 01:24 PM   #271
Redboard
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The BCC tri paid 75-1, but that's before people realized just how good Arrogate was, and there were several grade 1 winners in the rest of the field. I don't believe even with the longest shot in the field coming on third that it will pay close to that. It had a field of nine and the Pegasus is supposed to be 12, so that will help.
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Old Today, 01:41 PM   #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AskinHaskin
Wake up, people.


If California Chrome were to run his best-ever race, in this his supposed final career start, he would have only a chance to top Arrogate.

Arrogate, by contrast, is suddenly a 4yo, with lots of remaining upside potential.


'Chrome already showed what he could do with a monster pace edge and an opponent racing wide and losing ground much of the way. And it was insufficient for the challenge which is at hand once again.


If you truly believe this, then should you not bet everything you own on the exacta and get 2-1 or so? That is called an overlay. Nobody is beating CC expect Arrogate, that seems almost a certainty.
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Old Today, 03:04 PM   #273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
What do you think a cold $1 Trifecta Arrogate/Crome/Keen Ice would pay?
6-1?


The question is whether it will actually be an overlay. You have to assume, in the first instance, that a lot of bettors will be thinking the exact same thing you are. So they could very well hammer all Arrogate-Chrome-X trifectas, and the trifecta featuring the logical third horse might actually pay a lot less than even the 6 to 1 you posit. And you won't have access to the probable payoffs, so you won't even know if this is happening.

And second, if you are betting a cold trifecta, you are assuming a lot of things-- (1) that nothing will go wrong with Arrograte or Chrome, (2) that Arrogate will beat Chrome, and (3) that you know with a pretty good level of certainty who is going to finish third. I know it seems like "this outcome has a greater than 1 in 7 chance of happening" (assuming it is really 6 to 1), but does it? A lot of things can go wrong.

This strikes me as just a more sophisticated version of bridge-jumping. You are looking at a race where the public's opinion is likely to be extremely well-informed and attempting to squeeze some small amount of value out of it. Bear in mind, even if the trifecta is +EV, it's not going to be +EV by any great margin. Better to look for a race where there's more likely going to be decent value in the pools.
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Old Today, 04:32 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
The question is whether it will actually be an overlay. You have to assume, in the first instance, that a lot of bettors will be thinking the exact same thing you are. So they could very well hammer all Arrogate-Chrome-X trifectas, and the trifecta featuring the logical third horse might actually pay a lot less than even the 6 to 1 you posit. And you won't have access to the probable payoffs, so you won't even know if this is happening.

And second, if you are betting a cold trifecta, you are assuming a lot of things-- (1) that nothing will go wrong with Arrograte or Chrome, (2) that Arrogate will beat Chrome, and (3) that you know with a pretty good level of certainty who is going to finish third. I know it seems like "this outcome has a greater than 1 in 7 chance of happening" (assuming it is really 6 to 1), but does it? A lot of things can go wrong.

This strikes me as just a more sophisticated version of bridge-jumping. You are looking at a race where the public's opinion is likely to be extremely well-informed and attempting to squeeze some small amount of value out of it. Bear in mind, even if the trifecta is +EV, it's not going to be +EV by any great margin. Better to look for a race where there's more likely going to be decent value in the pools.


Take a look at CC last race. He was 1-9 and the clear second best horse ran 2nd. The 3rd best horse ran out and the 4th best horse on paper ran 3rd and the trifecta paid 46 or so. That was one of the biggest overlays of all time for a short priced trifecta. If a person had played two trifectas using the next two best horses they made out like a bandit. If the shorter priced horse runs third and you played say 3 times more on that then either way you were going to have a very profitable day if you played a bunch of money. Of course you don't know the prices ahead of time, that is the only thing that sucks.
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