Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion
User Name
Password



Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread
Old 12-06-2016, 04:19 PM   #31
2low
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 281
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by rsetup
You should look into machine learning and training a model to play the way you would (or, more precisely, the way you would if you followed rules you've established, while allowing for intuition). The end result will be your model will become a better handicapper than you. Read up on AlphaGo as inspiration.


Thanks for the reading suggestion! I'll look into it. On the surface, this sounds like what I am attempting, although in a very simple form.
2low is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 12:41 PM   #32
2low
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 281
vCash: 400
I knew this new calculated factor - along with tracks opening and closing - would have a big negative impact on number of plays available, and it has. While sample sizes continue to grow on the winter tracks, the playable races have yet to surface in volume. I can see lots of potential as races stack up, so hope is alive.

For now, in the 11 racing days since my first bet with my factor fix, I have placed a grand total of 10 bets, 6 of them show bets. I have a net win of 0.95 bets.

Once I get all of the closed tracks up to date with all the latest factors and formulas accounted for, I will start tracking how many bets are available as a percent of total bets being tracked. This number will hopefully grow steadily until it plateaus at a final and reliably consistent level over time.

Last edited by 2low : 12-17-2016 at 12:42 PM.
2low is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-26-2016, 12:36 PM   #33
pondman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,209
vCash: 400
If you are trying to solve a problem, such as making money with win bets, then your whole design needs to be focused on that. And personally if you could tell me that you made 500 bets in NY in 2017 and made a profit, then I'd be impressed. At least you would be able to increase profits by increasing the size of your bet.

We collect data for one purpose and that's to make a fortune with supers. And the way the data is stored will allow us to know how well the screens do for win bets. But We'd have to play a combo of sorts and develop other screens to make very little money with win bets, and we don't want to do it that way.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
pondman is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2016, 01:50 AM   #34
bruin95
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 33
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
And personally if you could tell me that you made 500 bets in NY in 2017 and made a profit, then I'd be impressed.



So would I. That means the guy has a time machine!
bruin95 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2016, 05:49 AM   #35
thaskalos
"Remember yourself..."
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 17,609
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
We collect data for one purpose and that's to make a fortune with supers.


This is a big change for you...isn't it, pondman? If I recall correctly...the word "supers" hadn't been mentioned in ANY of your prior 1185 posts here. You were making your fortune with selected win bets before...NO?
__________________
In gambling, "technical competence" comes quickly...but this only ensures success at the kitchen table.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-09-2017, 05:16 PM   #36
pondman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,209
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
This is a big change for you...isn't it, pondman? If I recall correctly...the word "supers" hadn't been mentioned in ANY of your prior 1185 posts here. You were making your fortune with selected win bets before...NO?


I haven't change anything on the win bets.

But I now have a dynamic super game, that is continually improving on itself. It takes a strict adherence and firm believe in central limit theory. Now I talk in terms of the 3rd & 4th leg of the super. There is no reason anyone need to actually pick a horse to win. It's actually foolish to try and beat the game with a large # of win bets.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
pondman is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-09-2017, 05:31 PM   #37
2low
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 281
vCash: 400
WPS was the first incarnation of my wagering strategy, but I'm beginning to add EX and TR wagers in now as well. I wanted somewhat of a decent sample size of races and data before adding the new bets. I'm not really where I'd like to be on that front, but I'm getting impatient.

This time of year is a slow haul. There are not many races to record on a daily basis in any case, let alone sticking each race into one of several buckets. Those buckets are not filling very fast.

I believe in what Pondman is saying relative to win bets. My WPS results so far seem to suggest that if I am profitable, the margins will be very thin and the bankroll swings very large. I feel the need to get vertical
2low is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-09-2017, 05:53 PM   #38
thaskalos
"Remember yourself..."
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 17,609
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2low
WPS was the first incarnation of my wagering strategy, but I'm beginning to add EX and TR wagers in now as well. I wanted somewhat of a decent sample size of races and data before adding the new bets. I'm not really where I'd like to be on that front, but I'm getting impatient.

This time of year is a slow haul. There are not many races to record on a daily basis in any case, let alone sticking each race into one of several buckets. Those buckets are not filling very fast.

I believe in what Pondman is saying relative to win bets. My WPS results so far seem to suggest that if I am profitable, the margins will be very thin and the bankroll swings very large. I feel the need to get vertical


Make sure you don't end up HORIZONTAL.
__________________
In gambling, "technical competence" comes quickly...but this only ensures success at the kitchen table.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-09-2017, 07:06 PM   #39
pondman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,209
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2low
WPS was the first incarnation of my wagering strategy, but I'm beginning to add EX and TR wagers in now as well. I wanted somewhat of a decent sample size of races and data before adding the new bets. I'm not really where I'd like to be on that front, but I'm getting impatient.


I have the belief that a profitable screen, if you have one, for win betting will not produce profitable results for exotics. I'd be careful with the 1,2,3 tri bets (betting your top 3 horses.) I really believe that it requires a healthy attitude of making A,A,6,1 bets (it's the most profitable under my play), and know how your ratings stack up, before you'll make money. You've got to have the math behind how often your top horse loses. You've got to find the right screens to do that. I make serious money with supers, but my win bets, if I used my top horse, similar to everyone else's, would be a marginal loss, with the same screen.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
pondman is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-09-2017, 07:57 PM   #40
2low
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 281
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
I have the belief that a profitable screen, if you have one, for win betting will not produce profitable results for exotics. I'd be careful with the 1,2,3 tri bets (betting your top 3 horses.) I really believe that it requires a healthy attitude of making A,A,6,1 bets (it's the most profitable under my play), and know how your ratings stack up, before you'll make money. You've got to have the math behind how often your top horse loses. You've got to find the right screens to do that. I make serious money with supers, but my win bets, if I used my top horse, similar to everyone else's, would be a marginal loss, with the same screen.


I see where you are coming from. My system isn't really built around finding a winner. It is built around finding contenders for the top few spots and using those to construct wagers of any kind. From there, I am gathering data that will hopefully tell me which of those contenders should be included in various slots in my vertical wagers or WPS bets on different track/surface/distance/condition races.
2low is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-09-2017, 08:46 PM   #41
pondman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,209
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2low
I see where you are coming from. My system isn't really built around finding a winner. It is built around finding contenders for the top few spots and using those to construct wagers of any kind. From there, I am gathering data that will hopefully tell me which of those contenders should be included in various slots in my vertical wagers or WPS bets on different track/surface/distance/condition races.


Are you able to tabulate your system of contenders? And are the results orderly? Can you play for a month, 6 months, year, and have significant similarity between your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th rated choice. Is your 1st rated choice in the money more than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th in order?
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
pondman is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-10-2017, 12:25 PM   #42
2low
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 281
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
Are you able to tabulate your system of contenders? And are the results orderly? Can you play for a month, 6 months, year, and have significant similarity between your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th rated choice. Is your 1st rated choice in the money more than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th in order?


I'm still figuring that out, but yes, I will be able to know whether my results are orderly. Actually, I ran a similar but less robust and targeted version of my software a few years ago and it did have orderly results. I have no reason to expect this version to fail in that respect.
2low is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-12-2017, 01:33 AM   #43
2low
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 281
vCash: 400
Oh the joys of being an idiot! I realized today that I had faulty logic in my melon that transferred into my code. This is on the EX and TR plays that I was just starting to implement, so hasn't cost me any wasted bets at least.

Hopefully not all of the time I spent is wasted. At least some portion of the very long formulas should translate to the corrected version. I hope to have time this weekend to start the process all over again...
2low is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:28 PM.



Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1999 - 2016 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed @ 1024x768 Resolution Or Higher