Most Morning Lines are just Wrong

[TheOracle]

Since this post the 5ers have been struggling at Aqueduct for the month of February




They have only won 5 of their last 14 attempts as February is proving to be a rough month

However 3 of the 5 wins in February have been in Claiming races in which the 5ers have been doing well since the beginning of the year as they have won 9 out of their last 15 attempts!!





There are these Claimers running today at Aqueduct for M Nevin

1st race
#1 Gabbys Brown

6th race
#8 American Creed

Let's see what happens today!!

[TheOracle]

Since this post #1 Gabbys Brown was off the board on February 21st for M Nevin however #7 Amours Charm did win yesterday for Nevin and paid $6 to win.

Correction on my part #8 American Creed, was not listed with a Morning Line ending in 5 and so does not qualify for the study



Overall, since January 1st the 5ers have won 10 of their last 17 Claiming races and is giving a 30% return so far at Aqueduct!!

[mickey_arnold]

Check out this link before making definitive statements about Prime Power being "king": http://www.jcapper.com/benchmarktesting.asp . Depends on whether you are talking Win% or ROI, especially on Top Rank Pick.

BTW I have deeper comparisons that cover all Ranks...Jeff Platt from JCapper obviously has even more studies of his ratings...If you can dig up BRIS analyses that might parallel some of his, it would be interesting to expand the comparison.

[thaskalos]

Any chance that we'll see 4-1 odds on the in today's 11th race at Sam Houston?

[TexasDolly]

Originally Posted by mickey_arnold

Check out this link before making definitive statements about Prime Power being "king": http://www.jcapper.com/benchmarktesting.asp . Depends on whether you are talking Win% or ROI, especially on Top Rank Pick.

BTW I have deeper comparisons that cover all Ranks...Jeff Platt from JCapper obviously has even more studies of his ratings...If you can dig up BRIS analyses that might parallel some of his, it would be interesting to expand the comparison.

I wasn't able to access that link you posted . Is it currently bad or is it my
setup ?
Thank you,
TD

[davew]

Originally Posted by TexasDolly

I wasn't able to access that link you posted . Is it currently bad or is it my
setup ?
Thank you,
TD

try this
http://www.jcapper.com/benchmarktesting.asp

[TexasDolly]

Originally Posted by davew

try this
http://www.jcapper.com/benchmarktesting.asp

Thanks Dave worked fine. Pretty impressive.
TD

[overthehill]

I pay a lot of attention to MLs. and i would say there is variability among the line makers. I would say that the only ML that is consistently off among major tracks is Gulfstream Park as far as contenders go. and the NYRA line maker tends to undervalue the likelihood of a long shot winning on occasion.

Here I have found the discussion of contenders thought provoking. are you saying that the basket of your non-contenders have no chance of winning or will win about 20% of the time? if so your basket of non contenders would have odds of 4-1 in your line.

Yesterday I felt victimized by picking a horse i felt was a strong contender at 21-1 who was 6-1 in the ml only to lose to a perceived contender who had never run well in the class in many attempts , who while being trained by a competent trainer , was 20-1 and went off at 60-1. I gave the horse a slim chance of winning because of the trainer, but did not have it as a contender , yet it won.

Personally, at times i ve toyed with the notion of just arbitrarily narrowing the field down to my three likeliest winner and assigning mimimum acceptable odds to each level. sometimes it might be difficult to narrow it down to a top 3 because 4 and 5 are pretty close to 3. and then you have some races with lots of firsters trained by great trainers who are all well bred.

[Capper Al]

ML is a good source of information even if they are wrong. What's wrong about an ML is that they imply that the science of handicapping is so refined that they can distinguish between a 3/1 horse and a 7/2 horse. The ML selection outright are generally very good.