What would you want to have done...

[sjk]

Your individual sounds a lot like me 15 years ago. I agree with the others that the goal needs to be an actionable odds line which amounts to a set of probablitites.

A probit model sounds like something that would be helpful in developing a set of probabilities. I don't know that it is necessary to know the details of the methods you enumerated or to stick to a single method so long as the end product is an actionable odds line.

[fast4522]

Very interesting post that should spark many follow up posts. For my take on such software would be that it have several aspects including a good odds line that is better than out of the can morning line. There should be a limit of five people using it, what value would there be if everyone has the same data. Overall the majority of winners should park inside the top four rankings on a card. The software should crunch all the good cards on any given day when you start the program. The program should have a very rich in depth modeling export to Microsoft Access. And data should not cost $130 per month period.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by sjk

Your individual sounds a lot like me 15 years ago. I agree with the others that the goal needs to be an actionable odds line which amounts to a set of probablitites.

A probit model sounds like something that would be helpful in developing a set of probabilities. I don't know that it is necessary to know the details of the methods you enumerated or to stick to a single method so long as the end product is an actionable odds line.

I agree with your assertion of an actionable odds line. I don't believe logistic or probit model probabilities will solve the problem. It can be part of a solution, but not the solution.

Benter stumbled on the solution by trial and error, but not necessarily a complete solution. He actually solved the problem in reverse order.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[gm10]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

I agree with your assertion of an actionable odds line. I don't believe logistic or probit model probabilities will solve the problem. It can be part of a solution, but not the solution.

Benter stumbled on the solution by trial and error, but not necessarily a complete solution. He actually solved the problem in reverse order.

Mike (Dr Beav)

What does 'actionable' mean in this context?

[sjk]

I used the word actionable to mean that you have a set of rules that tells you which horses to play:e.g. "bet any horse which has run in the past 120 days and whose odds offer a 2x overlay based on the odds line".

It is implied that you get a significant number of plays using the rule and that over the long haul these generate a profit.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by gm10

What does 'actionable' mean in this context?

An oddsline which is well calibrated as the tote odds, but sharper.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Dave Schwartz]

I agree with your assertion of an actionable odds line. I don't believe logistic or probit model probabilities will solve the problem. It can be part of a solution, but not the solution.

Benter stumbled on the solution by trial and error, but not necessarily a complete solution. He actually solved the problem in reverse order.

Such solutions seem to be working for the five or six top whales.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

An oddsline which is well calibrated as the tote odds, but sharper.

Mike (Dr Beav)

I've got one of those. It's based on a multinomial logit model (see Benter). The model is just slightly less efficient than the tote, but the ROI of the "best value horse that is also in the top 2 of winning probabilities" is around 5% (make that 10% using Betfair).

It's boring, but it makes a little bit of money. The key is getting fixed odds. You can just place your bets, go and watch TV and check your balance 6 hours later.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Such solutions seem to be working for the five or six top whales.

Now, Dave I'm surprised at your comment. Did I say it isn't profitable? I said it is part of the solution, but it is not necessarily the complete solution.

You well know that without the tote odds and associated probabilities, the logistic and probit models aren't sufficient.

So, I ask what is leading the path to a solution the logistic or probit or it might it just possibly be the tote odds?

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

An oddsline which is well calibrated as the tote odds, but sharper.

Mike (Dr Beav)

The odds line should be a function of the handicapping model and should be consistent with the wager’s risk profile. I am quite sure you know and understand Arrow’s Paradox when it comes to risk.

The relevance of the odds line to the tote board is that the odds line should exploit the tote board; in general the tote board is a probabilistic representation of collusion between bettors.

Also I never answered your initial question and the answer is none of them. While they all have benefit to some degree I would rather start by developing my own predictive model and I would start with one built with a logarithmic curve model and drive it with laws of physics as they relate to the measurable parameters of horseracing.

[Dave Schwartz]

You well know that without the tote odds and associated probabilities, the logistic and probit models aren't sufficient.

Mike,

So what you meant by "aren't sufficient" was that the tote odds were missing?


Dave

[yak merchant]

Originally Posted by Cratos

logarithmic curve model and drive it with laws of physics as they relate to the measurable parameters of horseracing.

This. The hard part is the "pace predictor" to understand the distribution of possible outcomes depending on the pace scenarios. Wouldn't hurt to throw in a data mining app for trainer patterns. While I'm sure I could learn a lot from a mathematician and an expert horse player, I'd want a team of people in this order:

Computer Programmer
Statistician
Trainer/Physical Appearance Handicapper
Track Clocker

I have the programmer part covered, but even if I had the money, the other 3 probably would cost more than I could reasonable expect to extract from the game. If you had a crystal ball and could tell me that horse racing in 10 to 20 years is thriving, and takeouts have been lowered then maybe. But going full retard on a 'business model" that is precarious at best, and directly tied to the whims of an incompetent and corrupt bureaucracy sounds like a bad plan. It works alot better if you are a statistician/trainer that just inherited a bunch of money and all you need is to find/hire a programmer.

[sjk]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

Now, Dave I'm surprised at your comment. Did I say it isn't profitable? I said it is part of the solution, but it is not necessarily the complete solution.

You well know that without the tote odds and associated probabilities, the logistic and probit models aren't sufficient.

So, I ask what is leading the path to a solution the logistic or probit or it might it just possibly be the tote odds?

Mike (Dr Beav)

Anyone who uses their program derived probabilities to look for bets which are overlaid by some factor to tote odds are using tote odds in their decision process.

It is arithmetically equivalent to using probabilities which are a linear combination of derived and tote probabilities.

So far as I know I have never achieved probabilities which are sharper than the tote (this is really hard to do) but as long as they are nearly as good and substantially different I can make a good profit.

Lots of good discussion of these types of things 6-8 years ago for anyone who cares to search.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Also I never answered your initial question and the answer is none of them. While they all have benefit to some degree I would rather start by developing my own predictive model and I would start with one built with a logarithmic curve model and drive it with laws of physics as they relate to the measurable parameters of horseracing.

I like the idea. This is exactly what I'm looking for. If you can get a set of derived probabilities, I would incorporate your predictive model into my ideal overall model.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by yak merchant

This. The hard part is the "pace predictor" to understand the distribution of possible outcomes depending on the pace scenarios.

This is the most difficult part of a race to quantify. Why? Because it has to be answered with the application of Chaos Theory (change the initial conditions and the results are widely different).

Mike (Dr Beav)